r/CanadianInvestor

Lithium heading into Q2 2026 is in a very different position than it was even six months ago.

Prices have stabilized around the ~$23,000 USD per tonne level, and more importantly, they have held there. That alone is a meaningful shift for a market that spent the better part of the last cycle in a steady decline.

But the real significance is not just the price level. It is what that stability starts to change underneath the surface.

Over the past 12 to 18 months, the lithium downturn forced a broad reset across the sector:

• A large number of development projects were delayed or shelved
• Financing became significantly more difficult to secure
• Forward supply expectations were pushed out, in some cases by multiple years
• Investor sentiment shifted from aggressive growth assumptions to capital preservation

What we are seeing now is the early stage of that reset working its way through the system.

At ~$23k, a meaningful portion of the global project pipeline starts to become viable again. Not everything, but enough that developers can begin revisiting timelines, studies, and financing strategies. That is typically the first step in rebuilding a supply pipeline.

At the same time, demand has not weakened in the way many expected during the downturn.

EV adoption continues to grow, but more importantly, there is a second layer of demand becoming increasingly relevant:

• Grid-scale energy storage
• Power infrastructure buildout tied to data centers and AI
• Government-backed domestic supply chain initiatives

This matters because it shifts lithium from being a single-demand story to a multi-driver commodity, which tends to support more stable pricing over time.

There is also a structural dynamic at play here that is easy to miss.

The projects that were delayed over the past two years do not come back online overnight. Even if prices improve, there is a lag between price recovery and actual new supply entering the market. That lag can create periods where the market tightens faster than expected.

So heading into Q2, the key question is not whether lithium has bounced.

It is whether this price level is high enough, and stable enough, to restart the development cycle without triggering another wave of oversupply.

If it is, the current “floor” becomes something more durable, and the next phase of the cycle starts to build.

If it is not, then this is still just a range before another move.

Right now, the setup is constructive, but it still needs confirmation through Q2.

Curious how others are viewing this.
Is this the start of a new base, or just stabilization before another leg?

Your daily investment discussion thread.

Hi all,

New to Canadian investing, having primarily invested mostly in the US for the past 8y where I haven't really had to think about the below questions. Seeking input on the general consensus regarding stock/ETF purchases. Apologies in advance if these are noob questions (which I most definitely am) but trying to find this information out on my own hasn't resulted in any increased confidence yet.

1. How do you decide when to buy something on your TFSA vs regular trading account? There are a few ETFs and individual stocks I would like to invest in but I'm not sure which account is best suited for it. For example, how do you decide if VFV is better suited to your TFSA or regular trading account? (I am aware that TFSA contributions are capped for each year)

2. What is the general strategy regarding FHSA? Given that investing in stocks/ETFs could mean I could be at a loss when the time comes to make use of this account, what incentive is there to contributing to this as opposed to letting it sit in a regular HYSA? Are there specific stocks/ETF that people target for this account? (I am aware that FHSA contributions are capped for each year)

3. How do you decide when to buy a US stock (in USD) vs it's corresponding CAD-hedged version? Given that converting CAD -> USD -> CAD would lead to some gains being lost in currency conversion, and the CAD-hedged version being susceptible to changes in CAD/USD strength, what is generally considered the better approach?

This will make up more than half of my investments, all in Non-registered account. Thinking of using a large portion of it to buy VT (no conversion costs, low MER), ok to report T1135. How do I get the Canadian exposure? Norbert Gambit that into CAD and buy XEQT with a large amount or buy less amount into VCN?

Goal is to have ~20% Canadian bias.

Few Years ago, I maxed out my RRSP contribution room and patted myself on the back. Classic "responsible Canadian investor" move, right? Then last month, I sat down and actually mapped out what was inside it.

Turns out, I'd been holding the entire thing in cash-equivalent GICs because I was "waiting for the right entry point." Five years. $18,000 in contribution room. Earning roughly the same as a high-interest savings account while the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 quietly compounded at 8-10% annually.

I wasn't wrong to contribute. I was wrong to stop after contributing.

The real lesson wasn't about picking better stocks or timing the market. It was about a behavioural blind spot, the illusion that doing something (like maxing out an account) meant I was done doing things. My money was technically invested, but it was parked, not working.

I've since reallocated into a diversified ETF portfolio and set up automatic contributions so I never have to make the "is now a good time?" decision again.

Curious, how many of you have had a similar moment where you discovered a gap between saving and investing? What triggered the realization?