Just announced in the pregame.

The 2026 Calder Cup playoffs have already given us one of the best parts of postseason hockey: the regular season stats just don’t seem to matter. It all comes down to grit, determination, and the desire to bring home the cup.

This year in particular has been brutal for division favorites. Providence, Laval, and Ontario all won their divisions. All three are now out before the division finals. Syracuse and Bridgeport also had home-ice advantage and are gone. Yes, Coachella Valley knocking out Ontario was a huge moment. But to understand the scale of this year’s madness, you have to start with Springfield.

The Springfield Upset

Springfield beating Providence is the upset that puts the whole postseason into perspective.

Providence was the best regular-season team in the AHL: 54-16-2-0, 110 points, 239 goals for, 162 against, +77 goal differential. Springfield was a sixth seed that finished 32-32-6-2, 72 points, 207 goals for, 240 against, with a minus-33 differential. In other words, they had a 38-point gap in the standings and a 110-goal swing in goal differential.

How can I put this in perspective? For Coachella fans, imagine this: If Springfield had played in the Pacific, it would have finished behind both San Diego and Tucson, both of whom had 78 points. San Diego was a minus-4. Tucson was a minus-9. Remember, Springfield was a minus-33. If Springfield was in the Pacific Division, they would not even have been close to making playoffs. Providence had 11 more points than Ontario. With that in mind, let’s check out how.

The series was tight, tense, and deeply annoying if you were Providence. Springfield won 3-2, lost 2-1, then won 3-2 in overtime and 1-0 in overtime. Providence scored six goals in four games. The league’s best regular-season team got dragged into a series of grueling low-scoring games and lost three of them.

The biggest reason was Georgi Romanov. After Springfield got blasted 8-1 by Charlotte in its playoff opener, Romanov took over and went 5-1 with a 1.42 goals-against average and a .954 save percentage, stopping 186 of 195 shots. Again, let’s put that in perspective. The best goalie in the regular season league, Michael DiPietro (of the Providence Bruins) only posted a 1.91 GAA this season. He had a .930 save percentage. Erik Portillo, who gave us so much trouble, was ranked 11^(th). We didn’t even crack the top 20 in goals against average. Right now, he’s ranked third in the playoffs, behind Trent Miner of Colorado (BOOO) and Michal Postava of Grand Rapids (also boo).

But it wasn’t all goalie magic. Steve Ott took over as head coach on January 23, when the Thunderbirds were last in the Atlantic. From there, they went 19-13-2-0. Their full-season record still looked less than compelling, but the team entering the playoffs was tougher, tighter, and far more dangerous than the standings suggested. If anyone tells you coaching doesn’t matter as much as playoff talent, let this be a lesson.

Coachella Valley: Playing like its 2024

Coachella Valley’s win over Ontario was a major upset, but in a very different way from Springfield’s. Ontario finished first in the Pacific at 47-20-3-2, 99 points, 237 goals for, 187 against, plus-50. Coachella finished fourth at 41-25-6-0, 88 points, 235 goals for, 218 against, plus-17. That is a substantial gap: 11 points and 33 goals in goal differential. There is no doubt that Ontario earned the top seed. But Coachella was not some barely-hanging-on playoff team. The Firebirds had 88 points, plenty of scoring, and enough playoff experience to make the series dangerous from the start.

The series had everything:

• Game 1: Coachella 3, Ontario 0
• Game 2: Ontario 5, Coachella 1
• Game 3: Ontario 2, Coachella 1
• Game 4: Coachella 6, Ontario 2
• Game 5: Coachella 3, Ontario 2 in double overtime

That is a proper series, and the high scoring games weren’t nearly as definitive as the scores make them look.

The most impressive part is mental fortitude.  The Firebirds were 4-0 in elimination games this postseason after knocking out Ontario. That is an excellent stat that bodes well against a tough team like Colorado. Some teams get nervous when the season is on the line. Coachella looked more comfortable there.

The standout this post season was J.R. Avon, scoring the double-overtime winner in Game 5. His regular season was not overly impressive: he ranked 12^(th) in goals on the Firebirds team, pulling in only 10 goals in 45 games. In playoffs, he’s a different beast. He has five goals in only eight games. OFM (the AHL top scorer in the playoffs has just six goals). That is a fantastic coming out story, and we expect great things moving forward.

Toronto over Laval: the seed line exaggerated the gap

Toronto beating Laval looks dramatic on paper: No. 4 seed over No. 1 seed. Similar to CV vs. Ontario, but needs context.

 The North Division was tightly packed. Laval finished first with 90 points. Syracuse had 89. Cleveland had 83. Toronto had 82. That means only eight points separated first from fourth.

So yes, Toronto was the fourth seed. But this was not a case of a weak team ambushing a dominant one, and was not on the same level as Firebirds vs. Reign upset. Toronto was close enough to Laval that the seed line probably made the matchup look more lopsided than it really was.

The series still had plenty of drama. Laval won Game 1, 3-1. Toronto responded by winning back-to-back games 6-2. Laval answered with a 4-0 win in Game 4, setting up a deciding Game 5. That should have favored the Rocket. Home ice, top seed, momentum back after a shutout. Instead, Toronto won 3-2.

It was already a close matchup, but the Marlies managed to make it look easy. Toronto over Laval was an upset, but not a shocking one. The North was too compressed for that.

Cleveland over Syracuse: the quiet upset

Cleveland beating Syracuse was not the flashiest upset by seed, but it might have been the most exhausting. Syracuse finished second in the North Division with 89 points. Cleveland finished third with 83. That’s a pretty good gap, but not enormous. Same as the Reign and Eagles (99-93).

The bigger difference was goal differential. Syracuse was plus-48. Cleveland was minus-10. That makes the result more interesting. Syracuse had the profile of a team that should be able to put big numbers on the scoreboard. Instead, Cleveland won the series 3-1. The clincher was a 2-1 triple-overtime game that lasted 107:53, the longest game in Syracuse Crunch history. The goaltending numbers were absurd. Cleveland’s Zach Sawchenko stopped 46 of 47 shots. Syracuse’s Brandon Halverson stopped 56 of 58. Both goalies gave their teams more than enough to win. Cleveland simply found the final goal.

As an aside, I have a huge amount of respect for the Monsters after their playoff runs the last few seasons. I hope to see more of them this post-season.

Honorable Mention: Hershey over Bridgeport

Hershey over Bridgeport was technically an upset, but probably the least surprising one. Bridgeport was the No. 4 seed in the Atlantic with 76 points. Hershey was the No. 5 seed with 73. That is a minescule three-point gap.

The Bears swept the best-of-three:

• Game 1: Hershey 2, Bridgeport 0
• Game 2: Hershey 5, Bridgeport 2

Clay Stevenson set the tone in Game 1 with a shutout. In a best-of-three series, that is massive. You lose Game 1, and suddenly the entire season is standing on a trap door (Bakersfield notwithstanding). Game 2 was more balanced early, but Hershey pulled away. Sam Bitten broke a 1-1 tie in the second period, Andrew Cristall scored twice, and the Bears closed the series without needing a third game.

The reason this one feels less surprising is simple: Hershey knows how to win playoff games. We know that very, very well. On the bright side, the numbers fixed themselves, and Hershey got booted off the island by the No. 2 ranked Penguins. Gotta love it.

Why so many upsets are happening

Short series make everything volatile

The AHL playoff format does not give favorites much room to breathe. The first round is best-of-three. The division semifinals are best-of-five. That means one bad night can flip a series. One goalie heater can take over. One road win can put the favorite under immediate pressure. In a best-of-seven, talent usually gets more time to show itself. In a best-of-three or best-of-five, the series can be halfway gone before the better regular-season team finds its footing.

Goaltending has tilted the bracket

Romanov for Springfield is the obvious example, but he is not the only one. Stevenson gave Hershey a Game 1 shutout. Sawchenko helped Cleveland survive a triple-overtime marathon. Coachella got the saves it needed in elimination spots. In short series, goaltending can become the whole story.

Some teams were better than their seeds

Toronto is the best example. A No. 4 seed sounds like a clear underdog, but the Marlies were only eight points behind Laval. That was not a huge gap. Coachella also fits here. The Firebirds were the fourth seed, but they had 88 points and a plus-17 goal differential. That is not a weak team. Springfield is different. Springfield’s seed was not misleading in the same way. Their overall numbers were genuinely mediocre. But their late-season form under Steve Ott and Romanov’s goaltending made them much more dangerous than their full-season record showed.

Favorites failed to close the door

This is the simplest thread connecting all of it. Providence could not turn its regular-season dominance into offensive separation. Ontario had a 2-1 series lead and lost the final two games. Laval had a Game 5 at home and led twice. Syracuse had home ice, chances, and a great goalie performance, but still could not find the final goal. The lower seeds did not need to be better for six months. They needed to be better in the biggest moments. And they were.