u/whiptydojoe

Yo—hoping to enjoy some midafternoon Goose—will EuroTour be on Nugs? I think it was last time, but curious if anyone remembers

First and foremost, this is crazy light. Any/all input would be really appreciated because it would help settle a light difference of opinion between my and my HC (we're great friends and have alternated HC responsibilities for the past few years if that matters)

This involves 12u rec. It's worth mentioning we've never seen a kid get thrown out stealing 2B (although a couple have been close.)

Anyways, last week, this situation came up and we don't agree on how to handle it going forward. We had a runner on 2nd and 1 out. A ball was hit just outside the circle towards the 3b side. The runner on 2nd broke for 3rd on the hit and my HC yelled "go to 3rd" while I was yelling "1st, 1st, 1st." Inevitably, our pitcher threw the ball to our 3b person, she applied the tag, but the ball jostled loose and now we have runner's on 3rd & 1st.

We're both having fun with this and do not see eye to eye whatsoever. The numbers we both (mostly) agree with are: our 1b person is as sure of a thing as you'll find at the 12u level--if it's thrown to her, even poorly, she's going to come up with it. I would put a 90+% chance of our pitcher throwing to 1st and getting that out in that scenario (the 10% accounting for a bad throw from our pitcher.) I thought re-running that scenario, our pitcher-to-3b person and applying a tag would have a 60% success rate and that's IF the runner continues to break for 2b with abandon anyways (I think she was poorly coached, should have waited for the throw, and then taken 3rd.) 40% chance of bad throw, bad catch, or ball is bobbled loose.

Getting the runner at 1st is pretty much a "sure thing" and even if you -did- get the runner at 3rd, the runner at 1st moves up to 2nd on the very next pitch anyways. So, you've effectively taken only saved 1 base by a much riskier play. I've literally pulled a RE chart and ran it through Chat just to test it (my thought of going to 1st comes out ahead with a lower RE.)

Curious what others think and would be happy to answer any questions/details related to ability/skill/scenario. As I said, this is all in good fun between me and a friend. Thanks