u/usffan

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Next up in the countdown is Georgia State (high = 129, low = 133), who enter year 3 of the Dell McGee era as the preseason pick to finish last in the Sun Belt’s East division. Things took a turn after previous coach Shawn Elliott hit the eject button in the middle of spring practice in 2024 to GTFO and move back to South Carolina, and Atlanta hasn’t seen a retreat that fast since Confederate General John Hood 160 years prior. It’s unclear if he knew that the Panthers were headed for a downturn after he’d coached them to 4 bowls in his last 5 seasons in charge, winning 3 of those including the 2023 Potato Bowl over Utah State, but things pretty well fell apart fast after he left. After a promising start that included a win over Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt in week 3 of 2024 that in retrospect is a shocking upset, McGee has only led Georgia State to 1 more win over an FBS opponent, and clearly needs to show something in year 3.

Roster Outlook

Georgia State ranks 121st in returning production, with the 6th worst returning defensive production in the country and ranking 83rd on offense. Season starting QB TJ Finley is transferring to his 6th school (Incarnate Word), but leading passer Cameran Brown is back. Leading rusher Jordon Simmons also hit the portal (hasn’t landed anywhere yet), but the Panthers are bringing in Clemson RB Keith Adams is the presumptive starter since the only guy who ran for more than 100 yards who’s back is Brown. 1,000 yard receiver and TD reception leader Ted Hurst is out of eligibility, and with #2 WR Javon Robinson off to Utah State, the Panthers will look to LSU transfer Isaiah Stone to be their likely top target. With 5 P4 transfers on the OL, though, things might be OK if they can gel. It’s on defense that things look pretty dire. Every player with more than 50 tackles is gone to the portal or eligibility, and with only former Michigan LB Jaydon Hood coming in from a P4, any defensive improvement is going to be a pleasant surprise. McGee brought in the 88th ranked high school recruiting class according to 247, which counts for 8th in the Fun Belt, and paired that with the 95th rated portal class (9th in the conference), which leads to the 93rd best overall incoming class (good for 7th in the SBC).

Schedule and outlook

9/4 NORTH CAROLINA A&T

9/12 at Kennesaw State

9/19 at UCF

9/26 NORTHERN ILLINOIS

10/3 OLD DOMINION

10/10 BYE

10/17 at James Madison

10/24 at Arkansas State

10/31 COASTAL CAROLINA

11/7 at Appalachian State

11/14 GEORGIA SOUTHERN

11/21 at Marshall

11/28 LOUISIANA

Honestly, if McGee really does have things turned around, this is a good schedule to try to build some team confidence. The Panthers only leave Georgia once before October 17th, and that’s for their payday game at a rebuilding UCF. If things break right and they manage to get to the bye at 4-1, this could be the year that things start to rebound for Georgia State. On the flip side, if they drop not only that road game at Kennesaw State but also the home game against Northern Illinois, then it’s hard to imagine McGee returns for year 4.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

It took almost a week before we hit our first team that will be in a new conference in 2026 – UTEP (high = 129, low = 134). The Miners are hoping they’ll find gold in the Mountain West after 21 years in Conference USA, a conference in which they haven’t finished above 6th place in for over a decade. Scotty Walden is hoping for a full reboot as he enters his 3rd season in El Paso, cleaning house and bringing in new coordinators (co-OC’s Lanear Sampson and Joe Pappalardo from Austin Peay, with Kyle Beyer getting promoted to DC after Bobby Daly returned to his alma mater, Montana State). After a 2 year campaign that has seen the Miners go 5-19 without a single FBS win outside of CUSA (and a 1-1 record against FCS)… Magic 8 Ball says “outlook not so good.”

Roster Outlook

UTEP ranks 126th nationally in returning production (which, believe it or not, isn’t even the worst in the new Mountain West). They’re equally depleted on both sides of the ball, ranking 129th on offense and 99th on defense. Gone are both QBs (Malachi Nelson to Syracuse, Skyler Locklear following his OC to Missouri State) who completed more than 3 passes in 2025, along with starting RBs Ashten Emory (to Cal) and Hahsaun Wilson (eligibility) and WRs Wondame Davis (to Wake Forest) and Kenny Odom (to USF). Perhaps the biggest bright spot is that LB Jayden Wilson, second on the team in tackles, returns for his senior season. Walden brought in the 92nd ranked high school recruiting team according to 247 (good for 4th in the new MWC), which when coupled with the 122nd ranked transfer class (amazingly enough ranking 5th in the conference) adds up to the 3rd best Mountain West overall class (still only 92nd nationally). It sure seems like the Miners are going to have to rely primarily on youth to turn things around in El Paso.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 at Oklahoma

9/12 TEXAS SOUTHERN

9/19 at Michigan

9/26 OREGON STATE

10/3 at New Mexico

10/10 NEVADA

10/17 SAN JOSE STATE

10/24 BYE

10/31 at North Dakota State

11/7 HAWAII

11/14 WYOMING

11/21 at Air Force

11/28 at Northern Illinois

If you were going to draw up a schedule that would help shepherd in a young roster, I’m pretty sure road games at Oklahoma and Michigan in the first 3 weeks wouldn’t be on your wish list. If the Miners can survive those early September body bag games, they actually get 5 of their next 7 at the Sun Bowl, with only a relatively short trip to Albuquerque and their first trip to the Fargodome before closing the season at Air Force and Northern Illinois. If UTEP really does have the 3rd best overall incoming class in the Mountain West, and by missing UNLV, things might be sunnier than they appear in 2026.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Louisiana-Monroe (high = 132, low = 133) joins the countdown at #134, the preseason pick to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt Conference’s West division. Bryan Vincent enters his 3rd full season at the helm with a new boss now that ULM hired S. J. Tuohy to replace Vincent as the interim AD, and unless he wants to get blind sided and find himself out of a job, he’d better turn things around from 2025’s 3-9 season and try to get closer to the Warhawks’ first .500 season since 2018. It would seem that there’s not a whole lot of confidence in that happening based on any of the preseason indicators.

Roster Outlook

The reason for that pessimism almost assuredly lies in the Warhawks 131st ranked incoming recruiting class (dead last in the Sun Belt), which isn’t really adequately compensated for in their transfer portal rankings (94th nationally, 8th in the conference), leaving them with the 127th overall incoming class, which is also at the bottom of the conference. ESPN has them ranked 68th in returning production, with a good amount of that on the offensive side of the ball (33rd nationally), so hopefully with another year in the system that will pan out. That hopefully starts with third year QB Aidan Armenta, who threw for 12 TDs and 8 picks last season, though he may be pushed by Houston transfer Austin Carlisle. The Warhawks appear set to lose leading rusher Zach Palmer-Smith to graduation/eligibility (he did play 4 full seasons starting in 2022, though with legislation these days, who the hell knows) and #2 RB Bam McReynolds to UAB, but picked up former Charlotte/Louisville/Miami RB Don Chaney, Jr. (talk about a guy who’s played a few seasons!) to presumably finish out his career. They also lost leading receiver Jonathan Bibbs to UCF, but return Nic Trujillo, who led the Warhawks in TD catches, and add Clemson transfer Paker Fulghum. On defense, they do get back sack and tackle leading LB Noah Flemmings, but lose DLs Jerome Simmons to Oregon and Tae Woody to Texas State.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 at Mississippi State

9/12 at UAB

9/19 SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

9/26 FAU

10/3 at South Alabama

10/10 BYE

10/17 LOUISIANA TECH

10/24 at Troy

10/31 SOUTHERN MISS

11/7 at Arkansas State

11/12 LOUISIANA

11/21 at Appalachian State

11/28 MARSHALL

Ouch. Starting out the season with a clanga is not a prescription for success coming off a 3-9 season, and while UAB might have looked winnable when Trent Dilfer was there, Alex Mortensen looks to have potentially righted the ship for the Blazers. By not at least getting >!Georgia State!< as a Sun Belt East opponent, the Warhawks look to be dogs in every FBS game on their schedule (and let’s not sleep on SE Louisiana after they made the FCS playoffs last season) with the possible exception of their Halloween tilt hosting of Southern Miss. I’m not saying Vincent is likely to be on thin ice after this season, but I’m also not NOT saying it…

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

When you think about coaches entering 2026 on the hot seat, you immediately think of Luke Fickell and Mike Norvell (and potentially Lincoln Riley, but it’s still not clear that U$C is going to pony up enough cash to buy him out). But one who’s kind of under the radar is Middle Tennessee’s (high = 132, low = 135) Derek Mason, who has gone 3-9 in each of his first two seasons running the Blue Raiders after being fired at Vanderbilt for failing to live up to the then high water mark of James Franklin (that’s since been at least equaled by Clark Lea). If you weren’t familiar with MTSU before Mason got there, their previous head coach Rick Stockstill had a pretty spectacular run over 18 seasons, winning a Sun Belt championship, playing for a Conference USA championship and taking the Blue Raiders to 10 bowls in those 18 seasons. Still, after a 4-8 campaign in 2023, AD Chris Massaro decided to fire Stockstill, and suddenly those 113 wins looks a helluva lot better than the current and immediate future in Murfreesboro.

Roster Outlook

With things looking kind of bleak, it probably shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that Mason’s not exactly bringing in bushels full of talent in year 3. Middle Tennessee’s incoming high school class rates 123rd nationally according to 247 (ranking 10th in CUSA), which when coupled with the 10th rated transfer portal class (8th in conference) comes to the 118th best overall class (7th in CUSA) this season. But when you couple that incoming class with the 122nd ranked returning production (which is equally bad across both sides of the ball), it sure seems like it’s going to take a miracle for Mason to turn things around in year 3. QB Roman Gagliano, who finished the season starting after replacing injured season starter Nick Vattiato, returns as the only experienced signal caller (though don’t sleep on incoming freshman Mason Mallory from Florida high school powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas). Starting RB Jekhail Middlebrook took his 1,000+ total yards and team-leading 7 TD’s with him into the portal to Virginia, leaving either 2nd leading rusher DJ Taylor or incoming Kansas State transfer Antonio Martin to be the new starter. Out wide, the Blue Raiders also lost co TD leader Nahzae Cox to Kansas, but return co-leader AJ Jones as well as receiving yardage leader Cam’ron Lacy and incoming transfer Markus Allen from Mississippi State. On the other side of the ball, leading tackler Parker Hughes and sack leader Brandon Buckner are also gone, and with only 3 P4 transfers coming in (2 DBs and a DL), it’s hard to feel optimistic for a defensive renaissance.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 MURRAY STATE

9/12 at Marshall

9/19 NEVADA

9/26 at Louisiana Tech

10/3 at Kansas

10/13 KENNESAW STATE

10/20 at FIU

10/27 NEW MEXICO STATE

10/31 BYE

11/7 DELAWARE

11/14 at Liberty

11/21 WESTERN KENTUCKY

11/28 at Sam Houston

For as dire as things look in terms of the talent in house, that schedule is about as manageable as you could hope for. The only opponent on there who is above #88 in these preseason rankings so far is Kansas, so none of these other games are completely hopeless. But with the exception of the season opener against FCS Murray State, who finished 2025 1-11 and had better be a tune-up before the first road trip to Marshall, the Blue Raiders look to be underdogs in every game, probably even that season finale at Sam Houston. If there’s not some improvement in 2026, it’s hard to imagine Mason surviving for a fourth season, and I suspect people will start asking Massaro some tough questions about his own future…

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

I’ve got to be honest, I was shocked to see how far down Sam Houston (ranked 136 in both preseason rankings) had fallen. I knew K. C. Keeler had had things rolling in Huntsville before he got hired away to Temple, that Sam Houston brought in fired Wisconsin OC Phil Longo to be their head coach, and that the Bearkats were going to be forced to play all of their home games in Houston’s MLS stadium last year, but I hadn’t appreciated how badly things had gone for them in Longo’s first season, finishing 2-10 and dead last in Conference USA. With signs pointing toward them not having to play every game at least 70 miles from campus and with a year to adapt to Longo’s air raid offense, will things turn around in 2026?

Roster Outlook

The Bearkats do return two of their top 3 RBs (Landan Brown and Alton McCaskill) and top 2 WRs (Chris Reed and Grady O’Neill), which will hopefully pair well with QB Landyn Locke, who finished the season as the starting QB after replacing Hunter Watson and Mabrey Mettauer, both of whom entered the transfer portal and haven’t apparently caught on anywhere. In fact, the only transfers of note to have departed the Bearkats are OT Kolt Dieterich to Washington and punter Curtis Gerrand to UCLA. Still, Sam Houston ranks 80th in returning production, with most of that on the offensive side of the ball. To build the team to fit Longo’s system, the Bearkats hit the portal hardish (hard for a Conference USA team), ranking 2nd in the conference using 247’s rankings (good for 92nd nationally). That is far better than their 121st ranked high school recruiting ranking (9th in CUSA) and 122nd best overall incoming class (10th in the conference). That transfer class includes 12 players from P4 (8 on the defensive side), including 3 from NC State and Longo’s former WR from Wisconsin Kyan Berry-Johnson.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 at Troy

9/12 TULSA

9/19 NICHOLLS

9/26 at Texas Tech

10/2 NEW MEXICO STATE

10/8 at Liberty

10/20 at Missouri State

10/27 WESTERN KENTUCKY

10/31 BYE

11/7 at FIU

11/14 KENNESAW STATE

11/21 at Jacksonville State

11/28 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

That’s an interesting out of conference slate, with road games at preseason Big XII favorite Texas Tech and Sun Belt contender Troy coupled with home games against FCS Nicholls and a Tulsa team that hasn’t been above .500 in the regular season in a non-COVID season since 2016. If the Bearkats can finish the OOC portion at 2-2, it might give them enough confidence to take a few CUSA games, though with UTEP now gone to the Mountain West, they’re looking up at the entire conference coming into the season.