u/twinbee

There's plenty of posts he has made on this topic, so rather than create a dozen posts, I'll contain them all here. Listed in chronological order with UTC times (oldest first).

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11:24 PM · Feb 8, 2026:

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.

The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.

It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.

That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

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11:56 AM · Feb 9, 2026:

As I said in my post, we will still do Mars in parallel, but the critical path to a self-growing Moon city is faster.

The Moon city can be made to be self-growing in less than half the time of Mars.

The critical juncture for humanity’s expansion beyond Earth is having a self-growing civilization off world before the resupply ships stop coming.

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12:26 PM · Feb 9, 2026:

Mars will start in 5 or 6 years, so will be done in parallel with the Moon, but the Moon will be the initial focus

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1:00 PM · Feb 9, 2026

The Moon would establish a foothold beyond Earth quickly, to protect life against risk of a natural or manmade disaster on Earth.

We would continue to launch directly from Earth to Mars while possible, rather than Moon to Mars, as fuel is relatively scarce on the Moo

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5:20 PM · Feb 9, 2026:

The priority shift is because I’m worried that a natural or manmade catastrophe stops the resupply ships coming from Earth, causing the colony to die out.

We can make the Moon city self-growing in less than 10 years, but Mars will take 20+ years due to the 26 month iteration cycle.

That is what matters most.

There is also an AI bonus element, but the prime directive must be ensuring the long-term survival of consciousness.

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8:52 PM · Feb 9, 2026:

We’re still going to Mars and the timeframe for building a self-growing city there is still about the same at 20 to 30 years.

It’s possible that revenue from lunar activities might actually accelerate Mars.

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3:39 AM · Feb 10, 2026:

The Moon is faster to make a self-growing city. If civilization continues to grow, we will figure out the universe. If not, nothing else matters.