u/stoxcraft

MSFT posted its strongest weekly performance since 2007 after Q3 FY2026 earnings came in well above expectations. Revenue hit $82.9 billion, up 18% year over year. Operating income rose 20% to $38.4 billion. Operating margin came in at 46.3%, ahead of guidance. EPS landed at $4.27 against a $4.06 consensus. A nearly 5% beat on earnings.

None of that moved the health score. The health score runs on quarterly balance sheet and income data. It doesn't react to price. It reacts to fundamentals. And the fundamentals had already been telling this story for months.

🔍 Full MSFT screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/msft

The numbers behind the score are worth understanding. Operating cash flow runs at approximately $136 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis. Free cash flow per share sits at $10.50. Net profit margin is 35.7%, significantly above the sector median. The Altman Z-Score is 10.1, signaling very low financial distress risk even as Microsoft commits $190 billion in capital expenditures this year.

Azure grew 40% year over year in Q3, beating Microsoft's own guidance of 37% to 38%. The AI business now runs at $37 billion annualized, up 123% from a year earlier. Commercial remaining performance obligation reached $627 billion, up 99%. Roughly a quarter of that converts to revenue over the next 12 months.

The stock came into earnings down roughly 14% year to date, sitting more than 30% below its 52-week high of $555. RSI had drifted toward oversold. The entry signal was in unattractive territory. Post-earnings, the technical picture shifted. RSI recovered toward neutral. MACD turned positive. The trend moved from downtrend to recovering uptrend.

The stock still trades roughly 25% below its 52-week high at current prices near $405. 62 analysts cover it. 50 are strong buys. Zero sells. Average price target is $559. Max target is $870. The analysts are not debating whether Microsoft goes higher. They are debating how far.

The revenue picture is straightforward. From $168 billion in 2021 to over $280 billion in 2025. Microsoft did not just grow. It doubled its revenue in four years. Every bar on the chart taller than the last. Cloud did that. AI is next.

Three things to watch going into Q4 FY2026 earnings on July 28, 2026. Azure growth guidance of 39% to 40% would mark a second consecutive quarter of acceleration. The AI revenue run rate at $37 billion annualized growing at triple-digit rates shifts the valuation story fast. And free cash flow trajectory under $190 billion in capex is the honest stress test for the whole thesis.

The price fell. The earnings did not. The revenue did not. The cloud did not. Microsoft is not a turnaround story. It never needed to be one.

XOM beat adjusted EPS by 15%. CVX posted its biggest earnings beat since October 2020. Both companies looked leaner than their headline profit numbers suggested. Both kept their dividend streaks alive. ExxonMobil extended to 43 consecutive years. Chevron raised its payout 4% to $1.78 per quarter, reaching 39 straight years.

On paper, both look fine. In the numbers, the gap is significant.

🔍 Track XOM on Stoxcraft: stoxcraft.com/stocks/xom

🔍 Track CVX on Stoxcraft: stoxcraft.com/stocks/cvx

The coverage question nobody wants to answer at $70 oil

XOM covered its $17.2B annual dividend at 3.02x on operating cash flow. For every dollar it paid shareholders, it generated three in cash from operations. That is not a tight situation. That is structural confidence built over years of cost reduction and production scale through Permian and Guyana.

CVX's free cash flow covered its dividend at 1.30x. Still positive. Still manageable. But the cushion is thin. When oil softens further, or when Hess integration synergies run behind schedule, 1.30x becomes uncomfortable quickly.

XOM has stated it can protect its dividend with oil below $40 per barrel. CVX targets a combined capex and dividend breakeven below $50 Brent. That is still a reasonable threshold. But it sits a full tier above XOM's. At $70 oil, neither company is in trouble. But one of them is watching the margin narrow faster.

CVX is not the villain here

This is where most of these comparisons go wrong. Chevron is a well-run company with a genuinely strong balance sheet and a management team that has prioritized income investors for four decades. The 39-year streak is not an accident. It is discipline.

The issue is not whether CVX is good. It is whether the "CVX is the safer dividend" narrative that has circulated for years actually holds up when you stress test the coverage numbers at lower oil prices. The data says it does not hold up as cleanly as the narrative suggests.

CVX is not weak. It is the lower-cushion bet waiting for oil to cooperate.

What the energy sector actually looks like right now

Only 3 of 15 tracked energy stocks show a positive trend signal. The most common entry classification across the sector is Hold. The sector is financially healthy but losing price momentum. Balance sheets are strong after years of debt paydown. Stock performance is another story.

ConocoPhillips sits at the top of the sector on fundamentals. EOG holds up well as the cleanest pure upstream play. XOM leads integrated oil. CVX trails all three on financial strength scores.

SLB is the one name worth flagging as a concern. Down around 12% over the past year, up only 38% over five years. Oil majors are cutting services budgets first when prices get tight. SLB feels that immediately.

The actual decision

For reliability: XOM. Forty-three years, 3.02x coverage, sub-$40 breakeven. The dividend is as close to guaranteed as anything in the energy sector gets.

For yield: CVX. The 3.5 to 4% yield is real income today and the company has every intention of maintaining it.

Knowing which one matters more to your portfolio is the decision. Both are Buy-rated. The gap between them is not about quality. It is about how much cushion you need when oil stops cooperating.

Full stop.

QCOM -11.46%. That is the headline. Qualcomm just had its worst single session since 2020, and it did not happen in a vacuum. The stock had surged over 60% in a matter of weeks. A hotter-than-expected inflation print and fresh fears around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire were the match.

The overvaluation was already the fuel. INTC followed at -6.82%, dragged down by the same wave plus a KeyBanc report flagging a 27% month-over-month drop in laptop shipments. MU -3.61%, AMD -2.29% all caught the same exit.

🔍 Track every name on this heatmap: stoxcraft.com

But NVDA? +0.61%. Held its ground while everything around it bled. At its size, that is not nothing. The market is still not ready to let Nvidia go.

On the consumer side, NFLX +2.59% was a quiet bright spot. AAPL managed +0.72%. TSLA gave back -2.60% with no real catalyst, just noise riding the broader risk-off mood.

Utilities and telecoms were the safe corner of the room. AT&T +1.45%, PG&E +3.70%. When chips bleed, people rotate somewhere boring. Today it was there.

The day belonged to the inflation report and the chip unwind. Full stop.

Okay so I've been looking at Astera Labs for the past few days and I genuinely don't know what to do with this stock right now.

The momentum is real. TrendMeter maxed out. Performance score in the top 5% of the entire market. Earnings beat estimates every single quarter going back to Q2 2025. Revenue nearly doubled last year, approaching a billion. 17 strong buys out of 27 analysts, zero sells. On paper, this thing looks unstoppable.

But then you look at where the revenue actually comes from.

32% Singapore. 30% China. 29% Taiwan. Three percent United States.

That's 91% of revenue concentrated in the exact geography that's been the center of every trade war headline for the last two years. One product. One bet. And almost none of it in the country where the stock trades.

And I'm not seeing anyone talk about this. The bull case is all AI data center spending, hyperscaler capex, connectivity chip demand. Which is all real. But if something goes sideways with Taiwan, or China gets hit with another round of restrictions, or Singapore-based customers pull back, this company has no fallback. There's no domestic revenue cushion.

The P/E has been compressing every quarter since Q1 2025, which is the one genuinely good news story here. It's still expensive but less obviously insane than it was. And the analysts clearly believe in the growth trajectory.

I'm probably overthinking this. The AI infrastructure build-out is real and ALAB sits right in the middle of it. But buying something up 94% in a month with that geographic concentration after tariffs have already rattled supply chains... I can't convince myself that the risk score of 8.7 is wrong.

Been looking at this on stoxcraft.com if anyone wants the full breakdown. Curious if others are actually pricing in the Asia-Pacific concentration or just riding the trend.

🔍 Full ALAB screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/alab

The narrative around Intel and AMD has shifted dramatically over the past five years. AMD took the performance crown in consumer CPUs. Its Ryzen lineup won over gamers, developers, and data center buyers. The momentum has been clearly in AMD's favor for years. Yet Intel's market cap still sits above AMD's. That is not a mistake. It is a reflection of scale, installed base, and the slow-moving nature of enterprise technology cycles.

Intel at $51B still commands a premium over AMD at $22B despite underperforming on almost every product benchmark that matters to enthusiasts. The reason is simple. Enterprise and government contracts move slowly. Most corporate fleets still run Intel. Most servers still run Intel. That installed base does not flip overnight regardless of what the benchmark sheets say.

🔍 Full INTC screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/intc

🔍 Full AMD screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/amd

The Stoxcraft scores tell a more nuanced story. Intel carries a Health Score of 1.2 and a Risk Score of 6.4. The fundamentals are under real pressure. The performance score of 9.6 reflects recent price momentum, not business strength. AMD's profile is different. The underlying business is in better shape even if the market cap does not reflect it yet.

Visa sits at $49B with a Health Score of 9.2. That is a business printing money on every transaction globally with almost no direct exposure to tariffs or hardware cycles. It is one of the cleanest business models in the market.

Amazon at $36B in this comparison and Broadcom up 4.23% on the day round out a group of five companies that look similar on market cap but could not be more different in their risk profiles and growth trajectories.

The lesson here is straightforward. Market cap tells you what the market currently believes. The scores tell you whether that belief is justified. Intel being larger than AMD by market cap is not a signal to buy Intel. It is a signal to look deeper at what is actually holding that valuation up and how long it can last.

Popularity is not valuation. AMD is proof of that in one direction. Intel is proof of it in the other.

The Q1 2026 numbers were not the story. Revenue came in around $92.9B, broadly in line with consensus. Operating businesses performed as expected. Insurance held up. BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy contributed steady cash flow. Nothing broke. Nothing surprised.

The only number that matters is $330B. That is the cash and Treasury bill position Berkshire is sitting on right now. It is a new all-time record by a significant margin. For context, the 2019 peak was $128B. The current pile is more than double that. And in 2019, a sharp global selloff followed within months.

🔍 Full BRK-B screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/brk-b

The pattern has shown up before. Cash peaked at $44B in 2007 before the financial crisis. It peaked at $128B in 2019 before the COVID selloff. Buffett does not time markets. But the cash builds when he cannot find anything worth buying at current prices. That tells you something about how he sees valuations right now.

What makes this different from prior cycles is the interest rate environment. Buffett is earning real returns on those Treasuries. The cost of waiting is lower than it was in 2019 when rates were near zero. That means he can afford to be more patient this time. And he is.

BRK-B carries a Risk Score of 1.7 out of 10 on Stoxcraft, placing it in the lowest decile for volatility across the entire universe of tracked stocks. Health Score is 8.5. The BuyMeter rates it a Buy driven by fundamental strength and analyst consensus, not momentum.

Apple remains Berkshire's largest equity holding. Whatever happens to AAPL shows up directly in Berkshire's reported portfolio value each quarter. That is a secondary variable worth tracking alongside the cash position.

The question every investor is asking is not whether Buffett will deploy the $330B. He will. The question is when and where. Because when that capital moves, it will not move quietly.

Berkshire is not a distressed bet. It is the most patient money in the market waiting for the right moment.

SHOP reported Q1 2026 results with total revenue of $3.13B, down 16% from the prior quarter but that comparison is misleading. Q4 is seasonally Shopify's strongest quarter every year due to holiday commerce volume. The relevant comparison is year over year, and the growth trajectory has not broken.

The business model is straightforward. 76% of revenue comes from Merchant Solutions, meaning Shopify earns when its merchants earn. Subscriptions make up the remaining 24%. That alignment between platform and merchant success is what makes the model defensible. When merchants grow their GMV, Shopify's revenue follows automatically.

🔍 Full SHOP screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/shop

Geography is where the long-term case gets interesting. 63% of revenue is still US-based. EMEA accounts for 21%. APAC, Canada, and Latin America combined make up the rest. The international expansion runway is significant and largely untapped. Shopify has barely scratched the surface of what global commerce could mean for the top line over the next five years.

The profitability picture is the honest tension in the thesis. Gross profit is solid but expenses and adjustments are eating into net income. Q1 2026 net income came in at negative $572.95M. Shopify is still in investment mode. The market is pricing in a future where those investments pay off. The risk is that timeline extends further than expected.

Analyst sentiment has not moved. 35 out of 52 analysts rate it a strong buy. Only one rates it a strong sell. The consensus price target sits at $153.87 against a current price of $105.44. That is a 46% gap between where the stock trades and where analysts think it belongs within 12 months. The max target sits at $199.95.

The P/E has expanded every year since 2021 as revenue compounded. The market is not paying for today's earnings. It is paying for the commerce infrastructure Shopify is building underneath millions of merchants globally.

Next earnings report is July 29, 2026. Between now and then, the question is whether free cash flow margin shows meaningful progress. That is the metric that closes the gap between growth stock and profitable platform. Until it does, the stock stays volatile and the opportunity stays open.

AAPL has posted negative annual returns exactly twice in the last decade. -6% in 2018 during the US-China trade war. -26% in 2022 during the rate hike cycle. Every other year was positive. 2019 returned 86%. 2020 returned 80%. 2023 returned 48%. The 10-year average sits at 33% per year.

The current pullback is being driven by tariff exposure, not fundamental deterioration. Over 90% of iPhones are still assembled in China, and US tariffs are adding an estimated $150 to $200 per device in production costs. That is a real headwind. It is also a known one. Markets that fully price in a known risk tend to react sharply when reality turns out better than feared.

🔍 Full AAPL screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/aapl

Apple reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 29. Revenue came in above consensus. Services continued growing. The balance sheet still holds over $160B in gross cash. The company did not raise iPhone prices despite the tariff pressure, which means the balance sheet absorbed the hit. For now.

Health Score sits at 8.1 out of 10. Risk Score is 2.3, placing it in the lowest quartile for volatility across the Stoxcraft universe. The BuyMeter classifies it as a Buy.

The pattern across 10 years is consistent. Bad years happen. They have not lasted. The two down years were followed by some of the strongest recoveries in the stock's history.

The tariff situation is not resolved. But Apple has navigated trade wars before. The 2018 playbook ended with an 86% return the following year.

History does not guarantee anything. But ignoring it is also a choice.

AAPL has posted negative annual returns exactly twice in the last decade. -6% in 2018 during the US-China trade war. -26% in 2022 during the rate hike cycle. Every other year was positive. 2019 returned 86%. 2020 returned 80%. 2023 returned 48%. The 10-year average sits at 33% per year.

The current pullback is being driven by tariff exposure, not fundamental deterioration. Over 90% of iPhones are still assembled in China, and US tariffs are adding an estimated $150 to $200 per device in production costs. That is a real headwind. It is also a known one. Markets that fully price in a known risk tend to react sharply when reality turns out better than feared.

🔍 Full AAPL screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/aapl

Apple reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 29. Revenue came in above consensus. Services continued growing. The balance sheet still holds over $160B in gross cash. The company did not raise iPhone prices despite the tariff pressure, which means the balance sheet absorbed the hit. For now.

Health Score sits at 8.1 out of 10. Risk Score is 2.3, placing it in the lowest quartile for volatility across the Stoxcraft universe. The BuyMeter classifies it as a Buy.

The pattern across 10 years is consistent. Bad years happen. They have not lasted. The two down years were followed by some of the strongest recoveries in the stock's history.

The tariff situation is not resolved. But Apple has navigated trade wars before. The 2018 playbook ended with an 86% return the following year.

History does not guarantee anything. But ignoring it is also a choice.

Everyone has been calling the top on Google Search for two years. AI is killing it. ChatGPT is eating its lunch. The queries are migrating.

Q1 2026 just closed that debate again.

Search brought in $60.4B, up 19% year over year. That's faster than Q4 2025. Queries hit an all-time high, per Sundar Pichai himself. AI Overviews and AI Mode are pulling more searches in, not diverting them.

Cloud was the real headline though. $20B. Up 63%. Well ahead of estimates. Operating margin expanded to 36.1%.

On Stoxcraft, GOOG holds a Health Score of 8.9 out of 10. Top 8% globally across roughly 3,900 tracked stocks. The score was already signalling strength before earnings confirmed it.

The one risk worth watching is the DOJ antitrust appeal. That's the open question. Not the AI thesis that keeps getting disproved every quarter.

Full breakdown here: https://www.stoxcraft.com/news/alphabet-q1-2026-earnings-google-search-grew-19-while-the-ai-panic-spread

Eli Lilly reported Q1 2026 on April 30 and it was not close. Revenue came in at $19.8 billion, up 56% year over year and well above the $17.6B consensus. Adjusted EPS hit $8.55 against an estimate of $6.66. That is a 28% beat on earnings. The stock surged over 9% on the day, its biggest single session move in nearly three months.

The entire story runs through two drugs. Mounjaro revenue rose 125% to $8.7 billion globally. Zepbound revenue grew 80% to $4.16 billion in the U.S. Together they generated more than $12 billion in a single quarter. Volume grew 65% across the portfolio, and even with a 13% price headwind from lower realized prices, gross margin held. The volume more than absorbed the pressure.

🔍 Full LLY screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/lly

Management raised full year 2026 guidance on both lines. Revenue guidance lifted to $82B to $85B, up from $80B to $83B. Adjusted EPS now sits at $35.50 to $37.00, up from $33.50 to $35.00. Both ranges land above where Wall Street was heading into the print.

The next growth lever has not even shown up in the numbers yet. Foundayo, Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill for obesity, launched in Q2, meaning its sales were not included in this report. If the pill gains commercial traction it opens a completely different patient population that cannot or will not inject. Early rollout has been described as muted but the pipeline opportunity is real.

The risk worth watching is pricing. U.S. Zepbound prices are relatively stable following the cash and government channel price reset, but commercial insurance pricing trends still need monitoring. If private payer prices drift toward cash pay benchmarks, the margin story gets more complicated in the back half of the year.

The stock came into earnings down over 21% YTD, mostly macro and valuation pressure, not fundamental deterioration. This print made the case that the fundamentals were never the problem.

Amazon has been one of the quietest stories in mega-cap tech this year and one of the strongest. The stock is up over 30% in the past month alone, driven by AWS momentum, advertising growth, and a string of AI infrastructure deals that are reshaping how the market thinks about this business.

Tonight the numbers have to show up.

Consensus expects revenue of roughly $177B, up ~13% year-over-year, with AWS expected to grow around 26%. The more aggressive call - UBS is projecting 38% AWS growth in 2026 - is what moves the stock if it proves closer to right. Advertising revenue is forecast around $16.8B, up 21%. The P/E has already compressed from ~50x in Q2 2024 down to ~30x by Q4 2025, so the valuation setup is meaningfully better than it was a year ago.

🔍 Full AMZN screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/amzn

The revenue mix tells the real story of what Amazon has become. Online stores are still the largest segment but AWS and advertising are where the margin lives. Amazon committed $25B to Anthropic, signed agentic AI deals with Meta to run workloads on Graviton chips, and is guiding $200B in total capex for 2026. It is building infrastructure at a scale very few companies can match.

Q4 2025 was the one blemish in an otherwise clean earnings run - net income missed despite strong AWS and advertising. The market will be watching Q2 guidance closely, particularly operating income, which some analysts expect could come in below consensus even if revenue holds.

Analyst consensus is Strong Buy. Average price target sits at $283, with the street high at $360.

The business is as diversified and well-positioned as it has ever been. Tonight is about whether the numbers match the setup.

Tesla reported Q1 2026 on April 22 and the result was classic Tesla -- beat where it mattered, miss where it didn't, and then drop a number on the call that changed the entire conversation.

EPS came in at $0.41 non-GAAP against a $0.36 expectation. Gross margin jumped to 21.1%, up 478 basis points year over year -- the strongest reading in a while. Free cash flow turned positive when the market had been bracing for negative. Stock popped 3.6% after hours.

Then the call happened.

Capex guidance was raised to over $25 billion for the full year, up from the prior $20 billion estimate. Six factories, AI infrastructure, Optimus production setup, and a semiconductor research fab in Texas. Management confirmed negative free cash flow for the remainder of 2026. The after-hours gain faded.

🔍 Full breakdown and valuation analysis: stoxcraft.com/news/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-pe-ratio-valuation

Two things worth flagging on the quality of the beat. Auto gross margin improvement was aided by roughly $230M in one-time warranty true-downs and tariff relief. Energy storage margin included approximately $250M in one-time tariff recognitions from prior quarters. Strip those out and the underlying numbers are thinner than the headline suggests. Q2 is the real test.

On the forward story: robotaxi operations expanded to Dallas and Houston, FSD approval came through in the Netherlands and China, and Cybercab production has just started. Musk was direct that robotaxi revenue will not be material in 2026. The real bet is on 2027 and beyond.

At 181x earnings with confirmed negative free cash flow through year-end and one-time items propping up margins, the valuation still requires belief in the longer arc -- Optimus, Cybercab, unsupervised FSD at scale. Whether you hold that belief or not is the entire TSLA thesis right now.

INTC +22.70%. Intel posted numbers the market had given up expecting. Whatever they reported, it was enough to shake off months of doubt in a single session. AMD +13.33% followed right behind -- when Intel beats, the whole chip space gets a repricing. LRCX +4.64%, MU +3.30%, KLAC +4.83% all caught the wave. NVDA held steady at +1.47%, which at its size is a statement in itself.

🔍 Track every name on this heatmap: stoxcraft.com

On the other side of the map, Health Technology got hit hard. LLY dropped -4.48% -- the biggest red square in the room today. MRK -2.03%, ABBV -0.91%. No single catalyst dominated but sector rotation out of pharma was visible all session.

Financials were quiet and slightly red across the board. JPM -0.52%, GS -1.01%, Visa -0.56%. Not a collapse, just no reason to be there when semis were moving like this.

AMZN +2.36% and META +1.18% kept consumer tech respectable. GOOGL was effectively flat at +0.07% -- holding ground ahead of its own earnings.

The day belonged to Intel and AMD. Full stop.

Walmart doesn't make headlines. It just keeps going up. +38% over the last year without anyone talking about it.

The revenue chart tells you everything - $160B to $190B every single quarter without a miss, and Q4 FY26 came in at $190.7B, the highest on record. Full-year revenue crossed $713B for the first time in the company's history. Free cash flow for the year hit $42 billion. These are not growth stock numbers. This is just a machine that runs.

The part most people overlook is how the margin profile is quietly changing. E-commerce grew 27% in the U.S., advertising revenue hit $6.4B (up 46%), and membership income crossed $4.3B globally. Sam's Club just raised its membership fee for the first time since 2022. Walmart is building platform revenue on top of retail revenue - and platform margins are structurally better.

🔍 Full stock screener breakdown: stoxcraft.com/stocks/wmt

Earnings have beaten estimates every year going back to 2022, with the trajectory steadily climbing. The next test is May 14 - Q1 FY27. Consensus EPS is $0.66 and management guided $0.63-$0.65, so the bar is manageable.

44 analysts cover WMT. 31 say Strong Buy. Average price target is $139.05, implying ~9% upside. Street high is $150. The Stoxcraft screener gives it a momentum score of 8.2 with a risk score of just 2.5 - steady, institutionally held, low drama.

The honest caveat is valuation. At 45x TTM earnings, you are paying for execution consistency, the platform build, and defensive positioning in uncertain macro. Whether that premium is worth it depends on your horizon.

But the business itself? It just doesn't stop.

TSMC reported Q1 2026 earnings this morning and it wasn't close. Revenue came in at $35.7B - up 35% year-over-year, the first time in its history quarterly revenue crossed NT$1 trillion. Profit surged 58.3% YoY to a record ~$18.1B. Gross margin hit 66.2%, beating the 64.5% consensus. EPS came in at NT$22.08 vs the NT$20.88 estimate.

Then they guided Q2 revenue between $39–40.2B... above Wall Street's $38.1B expectation. Full-year growth guidance was raised to above 30% in USD terms, up from "close to 30%" three months ago. CEO C.C. Wei's words on the call: "AI related demand continues to be extremely robust."

🔍 Full screener: stoxcraft.com/stocks/tsm

The numbers make sense when you zoom out. TSMC manufactures approximately 90% of the world's most advanced chips. Nvidia can't build a GPU without them. Apple can't build an M-series chip without them. AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom - same story. It's not the loudest semiconductor name in the room. It's just the one that makes everything else possible.

The company is investing $52–56B in capex in 2026, including up to $165B committed to U.S. fabrication plants. Its 2nm process entered mass production at the end of 2025, pulled forward by a full year. Every wafer it can produce is already committed.

One risk worth watching: Macquarie flagged that near-term margins may have peaked as 2nm depreciation costs kick in. And as always, geopolitical exposure to Taiwan remains the structural overhang the market has yet to fully price.

But the business itself? Nine consecutive quarters of record profits. Revenue growing faster than guidance. Pricing power on leading-edge nodes. An AI infrastructure buildout that runs through its fabs whether the end product is a GPU, a smartphone chip, or a data center accelerator.

The median analyst price target sits around $423, implying ~11% upside from here.

TSMC reported Q1 2026 earnings this morning and it wasn't close. Revenue came in at $35.7B - up 35% year-over-year, the first time in its history quarterly revenue crossed NT$1 trillion. Profit surged 58.3% YoY to a record ~$18.1B. Gross margin hit 66.2%, beating the 64.5% consensus. EPS came in at NT$22.08 vs the NT$20.88 estimate.

Then they guided Q2 revenue between $39–40.2B... above Wall Street's $38.1B expectation. Full-year growth guidance was raised to above 30% in USD terms, up from "close to 30%" three months ago. CEO C.C. Wei's words on the call: "AI related demand continues to be extremely robust."

🔍 Full screener: stoxcraft.com/stocks/tsm

The numbers make sense when you zoom out. TSMC manufactures approximately 90% of the world's most advanced chips. Nvidia can't build a GPU without them. Apple can't build an M-series chip without them. AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom - same story. It's not the loudest semiconductor name in the room. It's just the one that makes everything else possible.

The company is investing $52–56B in capex in 2026, including up to $165B committed to U.S. fabrication plants. Its 2nm process entered mass production at the end of 2025, pulled forward by a full year. Every wafer it can produce is already committed.

One risk worth watching: Macquarie flagged that near-term margins may have peaked as 2nm depreciation costs kick in. And as always, geopolitical exposure to Taiwan remains the structural overhang the market has yet to fully price.

But the business itself? Nine consecutive quarters of record profits. Revenue growing faster than guidance. Pricing power on leading-edge nodes. An AI infrastructure buildout that runs through its fabs whether the end product is a GPU, a smartphone chip, or a data center accelerator.

The median analyst price target sits around $423, implying ~11% upside from here.

Price: ~$191.78 | YTD: +29% | Next Earnings: April 24, 2026 Screener: stoxcraft.com/stocks/cvx

Chevron has quietly been one of the cleanest charts in the energy sector this year — up 29% YTD with no wild swings, just steady institutional accumulation.

The fundamentals back it up. Revenue has stayed above $40B every single quarter for the past seven quarters. Earnings have beaten estimates four quarters in a row. The P/E has expanded from ~14x to ~24x over that stretch, but that's not a warning — that's the market pricing in the quality of the business.

The big catalysts going forward are the Permian Basin (now at record 1M boe/d) and Guyana, where Chevron's 30% stake in the Stabroek Block through the Hess acquisition gives it one of the best low-cost growth profiles in the sector. Management is also targeting $3–4B in structural cost savings by end-2026, which adds margin upside even if oil prices moderate.

On the income side, 39 consecutive years of dividend increases, ~3.5% yield, and $27.1B returned to shareholders in 2025 alone. The dividend breakeven sits below $50/bbl Brent — hard to find that kind of floor elsewhere.

42 analysts cover the stock with a Strong Buy consensus and a median price target of $209.

The one thing to watch short-term: Q1 earnings on April 24. Upstream earnings are expected to jump on higher oil prices, but the bar is now elevated after four straight beats. Worth being mindful of positioning around that date.

Strategy Inc ($MSTR) is currently trading at $119.83, down roughly 60% from its late 2024 peak. That alone isn't unusual in a volatile macro environment. What is unusual is the analyst consensus sitting at an average price target of $332.67, with the most bullish forecast reaching $705. That's a 177% implied upside from current levels, and none of the major covering analysts have meaningfully walked back their targets despite the drawdown.

A few things worth understanding about why that gap exists.

MSTR is no longer being valued as a software business. It holds over 500,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world by a significant margin. The stock essentially functions as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy with an equity wrapper. When Bitcoin moves 5%, MSTR tends to move significantly more in both directions. That amplification is baked into the thesis, and it's also why the risk score on our screener sits at the maximum 10.0.

The health score of 4.6 and momentum score of 5.7 reflect a company that is fundamentally stressed by traditional metrics but technically not in freefall. The buy/sell signal is leaning green, which reflects the analyst consensus weight more than any near-term momentum story.

The core question for anyone looking at this name is straightforward: do you believe Bitcoin has a credible path higher from current levels over the next 12 months? If yes, MSTR is a leveraged expression of that view. If no, the analyst targets are meaningless because the entire valuation rests on the Bitcoin balance sheet.

Full data and screening metrics on MSTR at Stoxcraft: https://www.stoxcraft.com/stocks/mstr

Strategy Inc ($MSTR) is currently trading at $119.83, down roughly 60% from its late 2024 peak. That alone isn't unusual in a volatile macro environment. What is unusual is the analyst consensus sitting at an average price target of $332.67, with the most bullish forecast reaching $705. That's a 177% implied upside from current levels, and none of the major covering analysts have meaningfully walked back their targets despite the drawdown.

A few things worth understanding about why that gap exists.

MSTR is no longer being valued as a software business. It holds over 500,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world by a significant margin. The stock essentially functions as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy with an equity wrapper. When Bitcoin moves 5%, MSTR tends to move significantly more in both directions. That amplification is baked into the thesis, and it's also why the risk score on our screener sits at the maximum 10.0.

The health score of 4.6 and momentum score of 5.7 reflect a company that is fundamentally stressed by traditional metrics but technically not in freefall. The buy/sell signal is leaning green, which reflects the analyst consensus weight more than any near-term momentum story.

The core question for anyone looking at this name is straightforward: do you believe Bitcoin has a credible path higher from current levels over the next 12 months? If yes, MSTR is a leveraged expression of that view. If no, the analyst targets are meaningless because the entire valuation rests on the Bitcoin balance sheet.

Full data and screening metrics on MSTR at Stoxcraft: https://www.stoxcraft.com/stocks/mstr