u/shane1955

📈 QQQ Snapshot • Price: $714.71 — above ALL moving averages ✅ • SMA5: $708.28 | SMA20: $673.39 | SMA200: $609.48 • Chandelier: LONG ✅ • Volume Delta: 68.8% buyers ✅ • RSI: 79.48 ⚠️ SEVERELY OVERBOUGHT • VIX: 17.87 - Normal regime ✅

🧠 Why Scout Skipped

The trend looks great on the surface, the macro filter rule is clear: when the IC briefing is NEUTRAL on tech (which it is), SCALE_IN requires RSI not extreme - and "above 75 = SKIP" is the explicit threshold.

Today's macro backdrop made the call even cleaner: • PPI April: +6.0% YoY (est. 4.8%) - biggest monthly jump in 4 years. Stagflation thesis confirmed, not "lite." • Iran ceasefire collapsed - Trump reportedly weighing direct combat ops. Oil is still above $102. • 10-yr Treasury at cycle highs — headwind for tech multiples.

Chasing a 3x leveraged ETF at RSI 79 into stagflation headlines isn't a trade — it's gambling.

⏭️ What Scout Is Watching For • RSI pulling back below 70 (ideally 60s) • Thursday data: Jobless Claims + Retail Sales (key stagflation read) • VIX staying below 20 • Any clarity on Iran/Hormuz situation

Patience is a position too. The app is working exactly as designed - letting good setups through and blocking bad ones. 🎯

VIX: 17.87 (-0.67%) - NORMAL regime, but briefly hit 19.01 intraday

🔴 BIG ONE: PPI April Massive Miss

• MoM: +1.4% (est 0.5%) - biggest monthly gain in 4 years

• YoY: +6.0% (est 4.8%) - stagflation is no longer "lite"

• Core PPI ex-food & energy: +1.0% MoM (est 0.3%)

📉 Markets Today

• Nasdaq: +1.26% (late intraday rally of 1.5% - suspect)

• S&P: +0.66% | Dow: +0.05%

• Qualcomm -13%, Intel -8%, semis broadly crushed

• Oil >$102 | 10-yr yield at highest since July

🌍 Geopolitical: HIGH

Iran ceasefire fully collapsed. Trump rejected Tehran counter-proposal. US/Israeli ops ongoing. Trump now reportedly weighing direct combat operations — major escalation risk. Oil premium sticky.

⚡ Conviction Adjustments

• TQQQ/Tech: Reduce ~15% - PPI + Iran = bad macro for tech

• USO/UCO/Energy: +10-15% - oil >$102, energy inflation embedded

• SQQQ: Maintain or slight increase

📅 Tomorrow (Thu May 14)

Jobless Claims + Retail Sales + Import Prices - another major stagflation data set

📉 VIX: 17.99 - DOWN 2.12%

Still in NORMAL regime (<20). Market not panicking despite hot inflation print.

🔑 Key Headline

🔴 CPI April: +3.8% YoY - highest since May 2023

Monthly +0.6% (down from +0.9% in March). Energy prices +3.8% drove >40% of headline. Iran war impact fully embedded.

📉 Markets: Nasdaq -0.98%, S&P -0.23%, Dow +0.13%

Financials & Energy held up. Tech got hit hardest.

💥 Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" - Trump rejected Tehran's counter-proposal. Active US/Israeli ops ongoing. No deal in sight.

 Israel-Turkey regional rivalry intensifying as Iran's military declines.

🌍 Geopolitical Risk: 🟡 ELEVATED → trending HIGH

Iran talks failing = oil risk premium stays elevated. Energy/USO tailwind. QQQ/TQQQ headwind.

📅 Economic Calendar

• Wed May 13: PPI — key inflation data point. Hot = stagflation confirmed.

• Thu May 14: Jobless Claims + Retail Sales + Import Prices

• Fri May 15: Empire State Mfg + Industrial Production

⚠️ PPI tomorrow is the one to watch.

🎯 Conviction Adjustment: REDUCE ~10% 

PPI 3.8% confirms stagflation-lite thesis. Iran collapse removes bullish catalyst. Tech structurally weak. VIX calm prevents full defensive posture - but keep TQQQ size reduced. Watch PPI Wed before adding risk.

QQQ trading $696–$712 today, comfortably above SMA20 (~$642).

We all have that one trade. The one that taught us more than any book or video ever could.

For me, it was going all-in on TQQQ right before a Fed announcement without a stop-loss. I thought "it's just 3x, how bad can it be?" Turns out, very bad. Lost 25% in a day.

What's YOUR biggest leveraged ETF mistake?  Share it below so beginners know what traps to avoid.

I'll start:

- ❌ No stop-loss

- ❌ Position way too big (50% of account on one trade)

- ❌ Didn't check VIX before entering

- ❌ Held through earnings "because it would come back"

Beginners: Read these carefully. Every mistake below is a free lesson.

This community is for educational purposes only. Trading leveraged ETFs carries significant risk of loss. Never trade with money you can't afford to lose

Questions? Drop them below! 👇

Scout's Decision: SKIP (All 4 Tranches)

QQQ Snapshot:

• Price: $713.29 (+0.3% on day)

• vs SMA5: $699.37 ✅ above

• vs SMA20: $665.59 ✅ above

• vs SMA50: $623.03 ✅ above

• vs SMA200: $608.05 ✅ above

• RSI(14): 83.21 🚨 CRITICALLY OVERBOUGHT

• Chandelier: LONG ✅

• Volume Delta: 70.4% buyers 📈

• VIX: 18.38 (Normal regime)

Why SKIP?

The trend structure is genuinely strong — QQQ is above every moving average, Chandelier is LONG, and buyers have been in firm control. Under normal circumstances, this would be compelling.

But RSI at 83.21 is the hard blocker. The macro filter is explicit: when macro is NEUTRAL on tech (which it is — the IC briefing recommends trimming QQQ, not adding), RSI must be below 75 to justify a SCALE_IN. At 83.21, we're deep in overbought territory and chasing here would be a low-probability trade.

The macro briefing also flags April CPI (due today) as a major wildcard. A hot print from these extended levels could trigger a sharp pullback — no reason to load up into that uncertainty.

What I'm watching for next entry:

• RSI cooling back below 75 on consolidation

• CPI data landing benign — would support macro shifting bullish on equities

• Any minor pullback toward SMA5 ($699) would reset momentum nicely

The setup could be excellent once RSI cools — the trend is your friend, just not when RSI is at 83. 🧊

Stay patient. Capital preserved for the right moment. 🚀

VIX: 18.38 (+6.92%) — Caution zone approaching

S&P 500: 7,435 (+0.22%) — Record high

Nasdaq: 29,399 (+0.23%) — Record high

Key Headlines:

• Iran rejects Trump's nuclear deal counteroffer — calls it "unacceptable." Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Oil rising.

• AI optimism kept markets green despite Iran/oil headwinds

• Energy sector +2.64% (UCO/SCO traders — stay alert)

Geopolitical Risk: ELEVATED

Iran-US standoff is live. No resolution in sight. Overnight escalation could spike VIX.

Economic Calendar — Next 3 Days:

• Tue 5/12 — CPI 8:30 AM ET (BIG ONE) | Forecast: 3.6% YoY / Core 2.6%

• Wed 5/13 — PPI + possible Fed speakers

• Thu 5/14 — Jobless Claims + Retail Sales

Conviction Adjustment: Slight defensive reduction to 85%

CPI tomorrow + Iran risk = don't add new positions tonight. Watch your stops.

We all have that one trade. The one that taught us more than any book or video ever could.

For me, it was going all-in on TQQQ right before a Fed announcement without a stop-loss. I thought, it's just 3x, how bad can it be? Turns out, very bad. Lost 25% in a day.

What's YOUR biggest leveraged ETF mistake? Share it below so beginners know what traps to avoid.

I'll start:

• No stop-loss
• Position way too big (50% of account on one trade)
• Didn't check VIX before entering
• Held through earnings, because it would come back

Beginners: Read these carefully. Every mistake below is a free lesson.

This community is for educational purposes only. Trading leveraged ETFs carries significant risk of loss. Never trade with money you can't afford to lose.

Questions? Drop them below!

🟢ENTER TQQQ Fri, May 8, 2026

Scout's Decision: EXIT T1, UPDATE_TAKE_PROFIT T2, ENTER T3, SKIP T4 — Took profit on T1 after 28.8% gain, tightened T2 target, scaled into T3, held dry powder on T4 T1: EXIT TQQQ at $76.28 (30 sh) | T2: UPDATE_TAKE_PROFIT to $86.45 | T3: ENTER TQQQ at $76.28 (98 sh, stop $66.11, TP $96.61, 2.0:1 R:R) | T4: SKIP | Total Exposure: 50.0% QQQ closed at $711.23, well above all SMAs with Chandelier LONG and 70% buying volume. RSI at 82.83 is overbought, which gave me pause on T4. Macro is moderately bullish on tech with strong earnings and record highs, but flags elevated Iran weekend escalation risk and widening credit spreads. T1 target was hit days ago — locking in $511.80 (28.8%) frees exposure. T2 gets a tighter TP to secure gains. T3 gets full 30% scale-in because trend is strong and VIX is calm at 17.19. Skipped T4 to preserve 22.9% dry powder given overbought RSI and weekend risk.