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Built an independent Abu Dhabi property intelligence platform on ADREC sales data after my co-founder couldn't find verified transaction data when buying off-plan. Here's what we learned about the market in 6 months of building.
Built an independent Abu Dhabi property intelligence platform on ADREC sales data after my co-founder couldn't find verified transaction data when buying off-plan. Here's what we learned about the market in 6 months of building.
Take an example of Gardenia Bay on Tue 12th May 2026
https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/project?id=6985928c3ea71df550648b95
How our AI predicts prices
Our prediction engine analyses real transaction data, nearby benchmarks, and market factors to model three scenarios for each unit type at handover.
Robin's AI scans comparable projects in the surrounding area that have recently been delivered or are nearing handover. Their actual appreciation rates serve as the market baseline.
Weighted by proximity — closer projects carry more influence
Each unit type (Studio, 1BR, 2BR, etc.) is analysed individually. Robin's AI compares launch prices to the latest transaction prices to establish each layout's actual annualised appreciation rate.
Strong performers are weighted more heavily in projections based on transaction patterns
Robin's AI analytics applies data-driven premiums for developer reputation (top-tier developers command higher premiums), location desirability (prime districts receive a location boost), and property type (villas, townhouses, etc. are adjusted based on market demand patterns).
Off-plan properties appreciate faster as handover approaches. Robin's AI calculates a dynamic proximity boost that increases as the handover date gets closer, based on patterns observed across delivered projects in the market.
For each layout, the AI blends the project's own trajectory with market benchmarks using adaptive weighting. High-performing layouts trust their own data more; newer projects lean on market comparisons.
Compound appreciation is then applied for the remaining time to handover
Proprobin predicts 3 scenarions
Conservative : Slower pace with cautious assumptions and a safety cap applied by Robin's AI
Realistic (Most likely) : Current trajectory continued with AI-calibrated adjustments for market conditions
Optimistic : Accelerated pace factoring in market tailwinds, with an upper bound cap
⚠️ Important: These predictions are generated by an analytical model using publicly available ADREC transaction data and statistical methods. They are not financial advice. Actual market prices are influenced by macro-economic conditions, policy changes, and other factors not captured in the model.
Happy to answer any questions.
Take an example of Gardenia Bay on Tue 12th May 2026
https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/project?id=6985928c3ea71df550648b95
The ▲ % since launch figure is a weighted average of per-layout price appreciation, calculated directly from ADREC transaction records.
For each unit type (Studio, 1BR, 2BR, etc.), Proprobin takes a sample of the earliest recorded sales as the launch baseline and a sample of the most recent sales as the current price reference.
Using a window of transactions rather than a single sale removes outliers and gives a statistically stable reference price.
Appreciation is measured on price per sqm, not total sale price. This isolates true value change and removes distortion caused by different unit sizes across transactions.
Appreciation = (Current median AED/sqm − Launch median AED/sqm) ÷ Launch median AED/sqm × 100
Each layout's appreciation is weighted by its share of total transactions. A layout with 500 sales influences the headline figure more than one with 50 — making the number representative of actual market activity.
Only layouts with at least 6 months of sales history are included to ensure statistical reliability.
All figures are refreshed daily from the latest ADREC transaction feed. The launch price baseline is fixed at the earliest recorded sales; the current price window moves forward automatically as new transactions are registered.
⚠️ Note: Appreciation reflects registered transaction data only. Secondary market sales capture resale premiums. Developer incentives and service charge adjustments are not captured. This is an analytical tool, not financial advice.
Let us know if you find any discrepancy and help us to improve the calculations.
Many of you have asked this question, wanted to clarify with full transparency. Yes we are aware of the fact that ADREC started publishing actual deal price (including premium) after 2025.
Take an example of Gardenia Bay on Tue 12th May 2026
https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/project?id=6985928c3ea71df550648b95
The ▲ % since launch figure is a weighted average of per-layout price appreciation, calculated directly from ADREC transaction records.
For each unit type (Studio, 1BR, 2BR, etc.), Proprobin takes a sample of the earliest recorded sales as the launch baseline and a sample of the most recent sales as the current price reference.
Using a window of transactions rather than a single sale removes outliers and gives a statistically stable reference price.
Appreciation is measured on price per sqm, not total sale price. This isolates true value change and removes distortion caused by different unit sizes across transactions.
Appreciation = (Current median AED/sqm − Launch median AED/sqm) ÷ Launch median AED/sqm × 100
Each layout's appreciation is weighted by its share of total transactions. A layout with 500 sales influences the headline figure more than one with 50 — making the number representative of actual market activity.
Only layouts with at least 6 months of sales history are included to ensure statistical reliability.
All figures are refreshed daily from the latest ADREC transaction feed. The launch price baseline is fixed at the earliest recorded sales; the current price window moves forward automatically as new transactions are registered.
⚠️ Note: Appreciation reflects registered transaction data only. Secondary market sales capture resale premiums. Developer incentives and service charge adjustments are not captured. This is an analytical tool, not financial advice.
Let us know if you find any discrepancy and help us to improve the calculations.
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Al Reem Island led with 299 sales. Al Hidayriyyat was the standout — AED 1.24B worth, up 96% in a week. Five new projects appeared in ADREC data for the first time. Biggest single deal: AED 82.9M at Four Seasons Private Residences, Saadiyat.
Full Signal with project-level breakdown: https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/signals
Data sourced from ADREC. No developer/agent affiliation.
