u/pierretheron

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

So where is the long term trend?

Its sideways for now.

When you see the price zig zagging up and down through the blue 30 sma, you can almost be sure its consolidating.

Be very careful if you want to buy right now. That last candle has not yet completed itself.

And can you see how strong the red resistance level is?

This red line was previous support. See far left. There were buyers there holding up the price. There might have been lots of them. And some might have suffered right through that large fall that came after. And now maybe they just too happy to break even again.

Selling keeps the price down.

Its tried four times that I can see, to rise above it, and its failed.

It could easily fail again.

But on the other hand, if it does get through it could be a very good buy.

The sellers will have dried up. It could really do well.

But you need to wait for a proper break upwards, above that line. No false breaks.

The price has already completed a beautiful bearish to bullish bottom formation (down to up trend, called an "inverse head and shoulders." - google it.

Its even recently been close to my neckline, to test it. And it has held.

So, in fact the price is heading upwards.

Its just taking a bit longer to weed out those sellers.

I have already drawn in where I think the next level will be.

Can you see my upper horizontal line?

To me its looking really good, but need to wait a bit.

I have been asked to have a look at OSCR; UNH; RDDT;

will do them in that order.....

as and when i can

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

I have been asked to have a look at this stock.

If you had bought way back where my buy signal is, at say 21.10 you'd be up over 900% now. And it would have been a hold, all the way.

It is also a buy right now, if this weeks candle, seen top right, closes roughly where it is now, and not below that upper line, right at the top.

So why would you hold, all the way up?

The only way one can tell where a last low is made, is that very moment that a new high is made. Can you understand?

If one draws in a line, at the very top of a high or H, as soon as the price rises above that line or high, and makes a new or higher high, "HH", then look back and you have your low.

Draw in a line where the low is.

Only if the price closes under that line or low, would one look at selling.

If one looks at my first "?" mark, you can see that the red candle never closed below our line, so you simply hold, if you had these of course.

It did open under the line, but that long green candle "engulfed" the red candle before it.

This is a strong buy signal.

And so we go.

With HH's or higher high's and HL's or higher lows.

To try put it simply, when you see a new high, look back for the lowest point between the two high's you looking at, and you'll have you low.

You can see that right now its making a new high.

So then is the lowest point between the two high's, higher than the previous low?

Yes it closed above the line. The green candle that came after, just touched the line briefly.

And so you hold.

Hope this helps a bit.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

I was asked to have a look at Nike as a possible long term buy....

What would you do??

Always always look at the chart before even dreaming of buying.

If you going to invest in stocks or etf's, you must learn to just have a look at price movement first. And the best way is to put up a chart.

But instead of using a daily timeframe, change it to a weekly one.

Then use a candlestick format. You can see more information. And emotion too. Green candles are good up weeks and red ones are bad down weeks.

And then all you do is add a simple moving average, to your chart. Most charting sites come with this indicator.

Change the parameter to 30 and i use a blue one.

Promise yourself to never buy when the price is UNDER the sma, like it is here.

Why?

Because the price is falling. And you never know how far its going to fall.

Rather look for the price to be firstly, above the blue sma.

Then look for the sma to at least have flattened out. (see up arrow "A")

Then look back for previous peaks or some sort of high.

Draw in a line there. (see my two down arrows)

If and only if the price manages to rise above the line, does one start looking to buy.

In this case, the price couldn't even get to the line.

So you do not buy.

And look what happened.

The price fell back below the sma and eventually below an old low too.

The long term trend is very much DOWN.

Stay away for now.

Can you see what I mean?

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

Now why on earth would Pierre recommend this stock as a buy?

Firstly, the trend?

Because we use a 30 parameter sma on our charts and a weekly timeframe, we need to make sure that the price is trading above the sma, and that the sma is pointing upwards.

Remember that we never ever buy when the price is UNDER the blue sma or when the sma is pointing down. Its that simple.

Here we see that the price is above the sma. Lovely stuff.

And the sma is pointing upwards. Excellent.

But the main reason why I like this one is because it has completed a bullish (means expect upward price movement) cup and handle formation.

You can see my lip line, with the cup shape. The price rose and failed to break upwards.

It the fell back a bit again to form a handle.

Once the handle was complete, the price managed to rise above the lip line, and that was your signal to buy.

And as nearly always the price came back to now test that same lip line, before rising again.

And the lip line held. This is very positive.

We got a strong buy signal, right on the line, in the form of a "bullish harami cross." (google it)

The cross itself is a "gravestone doji." It looks like a plus sign "+", exept no wick under and a wick on top.

The green candle that came after, confirmed the buy signal.

For me its a long term buy.

And now all you do, is hold your position while its trading above that blue sma.

Don't hold me to it ok??? I don't always get it right.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

I have been asked whether the correct place to buy, would have been just after where my "inverted hammer" is, OR a bit later, once the price had closed above peaks "A" and "B".

What you have to ask yourself is. Am I a long term investor? Or am I a trader?

Why?

Well traders take chances or risks.

They weigh up situations, and then they take a plunge, hoping it goes as planned.

Us longer term guys prefer a bit more certainty.

Lets take a look.

The price formed a peak at my down arrow "A".

I drew in a black line at the very top or high that was made that week.

The price then fell to make a low at my up arrow "B".

I drew in a red line at the lowest of lows I could see. (194.27)

Then the price drifted sideways a bit and rose to have a go at my upper line or shall I say "previous peak."

But can you see that it failed to rise higher.

Too many sellers at this level.

The price just touched my upper line, at point "C", and then fell back again, down to the red line, once again.

Here it also found itself UNDER our 30 week sma, seen in blue.

Danger signals should have been ringing at this point.

Why?

Well because if the price closed any lower than the line, properly, the long term trend would have changed to DOWN.

And that would have been a sign to exit the position one would have in this share.

Why?

Because a double top (peaks A and C) with the neckline at B, would be complete, and the price could have fallen a lot further.

We were just lucky in this case.

Why?

Well in fact this double top formation FAILED.

It didn't fall lower than its neckline. (google "when does a double top pattern fail?")

Now for us long term investors, we need to wait for the price to now rise above those peaks, before we buy.

Why?

Because in a long term up trend, we need to be seeing higher high's, and higher low's.

While the price is between the upper line and the lower line, there is uncertainty.

Which way is it going to go? We don't know.

Are sellers still going to keep the price down, or worse even more down?

An experienced trader would have picked up on the buy signal ("inverted hammer") and the green candle after it.

But he would have had to have a stop loss level below the lower line, in case it didn't go where it went.

What if it rose a bit more and then plummeted, before rising to that upper line??

The trader has calculated the risk and is prepared for a bit of a loss, on his trade.

The correct place for us to buy, is when we as long term investors, see a new high, completely above this top formation.

Hope this helps.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

This is for educational purposes only.

Each candle takes a week to form.

And the blue moving average you see here, has a 30 parameter.

This share has risen upwards past its last peak, making a new high and confirming its trend.

Its up about 194 percent or so since the buy signal was given.

What one can sometimes do, is once the price has made it above your sma, and the sma has flattened out and maybe even begun rising, is look back for some sort of a formation.

Here we see two lows that were made. (double bottom)

Then look for the highest point between the two lows.

Mark the high's with a resistance line.

See if it matches with any other high's, and move the line accordingly.

And then when the price rises above the line, thats your buy signal.

Then just stay in the position while the price is above the blue sma.

If it falls under or touches the sma, you can either do one of two things.

1. Draw in a trendline, if you can see two lows or more......

or maybe

2. Check the momentum below.

This is not always perfect, but generally if it stays above 40, you good to go.

You can see this one is staying above 40, quite nicely. (three up arrows)

And also note that overbought is sitting at about 80, on the indicator. Its not quite there yet.

What a pleasure.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

Here we see a typical exit signal - time to get out of your long term investment.

Use a weekly timeframe and add your blue sma.

Can you see how this simple little system could have saved you a lot of money.

It's not perfect but it really does help.

If you see the price fall below the blue sma, start looking back for other lows.

Draw in your red line.

These lows are support areas. It means there are buyers there.

And always wait for the candle to finish forming.

Once you see the price closes below the line, and the sma, which by now is probably flattening out, its time to exit.

After that, this one fell like a stone.

Its still not yet a buy.

Why?

Because its still trading under the falling 30 week sma.

PS: If your price falls under previous lows or support, it can mean that buyers/buying has now dried up. There are more sellers than buyers around now. This means falling prices.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

Using this system can make your life a lot easier.

Change the timeframe to a weekly one. Each candle here takes a whole week to form.

Add a 30 parameter simple moving average (sma) to the chart. Mine is seen here in blue.

Stay in the investment, while the price is above the sma.

If the price does happen to fall under the sma, let it make a little low and rise again.

Draw in a line under the low. This is your support line.

If the line matches up with another low, even better. More buyers around.

If the price falls under the line, its time to exit. Why? Because more sellers around now. They pushing the price down.

Note the price is still under the sma.

Never ever buy when the price is under the sma.

You can hold these if you have them, while they above the line, or you can sell off half of your holdings.

But when do you buy?

You only buy if you see the following:

Price above the sma.

Sma is flat or rising.

Price rises properly above a previous peak, or even better peaks.

Thats not so hard is it?

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

I am using a weekly timeframe.

You can even use the 30 week sma to help you with Bitcoin's trend.

Can you see it? Its in stage 4 or trending downwards.

It formed a beautiful head and shoulders top formation, and once it fell below that low marked "L", the long term trend now changed to down.

And now we have our lower low.

Its back testing the neckline. If it fails to rise above the line and falls below the last low, then we'll have an even lower LH or lower high.

Long term, don't be buying Bitcoin, at this stage.

Stay away.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

This is purely for educational purposes only. Its NOT advice.

Lets run through it.

Can you see how we got to our buy point?

Once the 30 week sma starts rising, look back for a peak or even better matching peaks.

Draw in a line at the top of the peaks.

If the price closes above the line, thats your buy signal.

You'd already be up over 21%.

While its above the rising 30 sma, you simply hold.

And now it has reached another resistance area.

Its made a peak and pulled back a bit.

I have drawn in another line, that matches up with another peak made ages ago. (see 2 x down arrows)

I have called this line a neckline.

We now have a possible inverse (upside down) head and shoulders formation in the making.

Remember - only buy if the price closes above that neckline properly. Just like it did earlier, first buy opportunity.

With this type of formation, one can get a possible, probable target price.

You can measure up from the bottom of the head, up to the neckline, and then add that same measurement to the top of the neckline, where it breaks up out.

This does not always work out, but its amazing how often it does.

My target is roughly 3864

Wait for the break, before buying.

Lets hold thumbs for this one.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

We looked at this about a month or so ago.

I use a weekly timeframe.

I generally delete all drawings from a chart, and start fresh.

This is because things change so quickly with price charts. And then you begin to see things you never saw before.

But first, where in relation to the blue 30 sma, is the price?

It's under it.

Remember, when using this system, never be buying when the price is under the sma.

Especially if the sma itself is pointing down.

Now, lets have a look at the price itself.

Because its fallen so far, it has cast a bit of doubt on the trend.

And in fact its really beginning to look like its busy with a right shoulder, at the moment.

I decided to draw my horizontal line in at the last closing price and low, where my up arrow is.

Can you see that this matches up quite nicely with another low, made back in April last year.

I decided to call this line my "neckline."

So what am I seeing here?

Well, the price rose and fell, to form a left shoulder. It took about a year to form it.

Then the price rose higher than the left shoulder, to form a possible head, by falling back to our neckline.

It found support at my up arrow.

And now its rising again.

Is it going to form the right shoulder now?

We don't know.

And that's why its not a long term buy yet.

Head and shoulder tops are normally bearish.

In other words, the trend could easily change to down, by falling back again, and under the neckline.

Rather be looking for something else.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

If you look back about a good while, I gave this one as a buy.

It is trading above its rising 30 week sma, seen here in blue.

The long term trend is up.

But can you see that its run into a little bit of trouble? Or resistance as some would call it.

I have drawn in a red line at the high of a candle, where my down arrow A is.

This line matches up perfectly with where we are battling a little, right now. (see right hand down arrow)

I have called this line a neckline.

Can you see why?

Well we might just have an inverse or upside down head and shoulders bottom taking place.

This is a bullish formation. In other words, more upside coming possibly. Maybe a lot more.

Google "Inverse head and shoulders."

We already have a left shoulder, a big head at the bottom, and now it could be busy with a right shoulder, as we speak.

With this type of formation one should wait for the formation to complete itself.

How?

By closing above that red neckline, properly. That would be your signal to buy.

You must wait.

Of course, if you already have these, they are a long term hold.

Why?

Because they are still trading avove the rising sma. And there is no top formation in sight yet.

It shouldn't be too long now, we already have our candlestick buy signal in place. ("harami")

Be patient and wait.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

If only I had seen this one.

It gave a buy signal where marked, in August last year. I'd be about 97 odd percent up now. And its only been about 7 months or so.

Can you see how it works?

Firstly, never ever buy for the long term, without looking at the price movement of your proposed investment.

I use a weekly timeframe and a blue 30 week sma to help me.

Never buy if the price is UNDER the blue sma.

It must be above the sma, and the sma should be at least flat or rising itself. If its pointing down, don't be buying, even if the price is above it.

Once the sma has flattened out and is beginning to rise, look for a little peak or some sort of resistance.

Draw in a line there. Mine was at arrow "A".

Wait for a pull back, and then once the price rises above the line, making a new high, its time to buy.

And now if you look at the top right, its doing it again.

The price made a peak where my down arrow is.

It pulled back to form a handle, and now its back above its previous peak.

Its time to be buying again.

Just keep your stop level below the handle at about 1500, in case things don't work out.

Can you also see the big cup shape?

It has completed it.

Cup and handles are bullish formations.

More up coming..... a lot more.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

Aaaahh nice.

Just what we been waiting for.

Our bullish engulfing candlestick buy signal, was confirmed.

That last green candle did the job, by closing above the little line I put in at arrow A.

Please scroll down, to the previous chart, about 5 days ago, for more info.

This one is a long term buy.

All you do now is have a look at this chart, say once a week or so, and make sure the price is ABOVE that blue sma or simple moving average, that I have added.

BUY.

Remember, I am just an ameteur. My posts are not to be taken as advice. What you do with your money, is for your own account, not mine.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

The price has made it above the old rounded peak that was made in January.

And normally this fact alone, would be a perfect buy signal.

But for me, the problem is that the price first fell through support.

And to top it, it made a new low.

What we want to see is the following:

Price above the blue 30 sma. Its there. Excellent.

Sma starting to curl up. It is. Excellent.

Two conditions met.

All that's needed now is a higher low, and a higher high, and we can safely buy for the long term.

For that to happen, we need a pull back of some sort, and then a new higher high.

So rather just wait a bit before buying.

Does this make sense?

I am contemplating giving lessons either online or face to face, at a reasonable fee, when the time comes that I retire from my situation at work. Just wondering if any of you would be interested??? Its just a thought at this stage. Plus don't forget that I am NOT qualified in any way, so any lessons given, would not be advice. Its purely educational. What you do with what you learn from me is totally for your account.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

If you had bought where indicated, at about 5718, in March 2024, you would be up a whopping rough 132% now....

And thats after the fall its taken.

You would have been holding on to these for about two years now.

How does it work?

Use a weekly timeframe.

Add a 30 week simple moving average (sma). Mine is seen here in blue.

Then wait until you see the price stay above the sma, for as long as it takes to see the sma flatten out and begin rising.

Look back and see if you can see some high's or peaks.

Draw in a line, joining up as many high's that you can see.

Then wait a few weeks for the price to close above the line.

You need to be patient, as each candle here takes a whole week to form.

Only once the price closes above the line, do you look to buy.

You can see it tried to rise above the line once after that first peak, and failed.

Then once you have bought, simply sit back and watch.

Make sure its above the rising blue sma.

While its above you hang on to your investment.

Don't buy right now, its pulling back. Vever buy after a long red candle. There is selling happening.

Wait for a candlestick buy signal.

If you already have these hang on to them, tightly, for now. The long term trend is still up.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

Not sure when to exit from a long term investment?

Maybe this will help.

First, note that I use a weekly timeframe, with a blue 30 period simple moving average added to the chart. This helps a lot with the trend.

First, is the price below the blue sma? Yes it is. negative.

Second, is the sma falling? yes it is... for sometime now. Negative.

It's time to sit up and take note.

How far is it going to fall ?

Not sure when to bail?

What one can sometimes do, is check below for a fall under 40 on the RSI indicator.

Mark the offending candle by drawing your line under the low of the week. (see up arrow B) (up arrow B matches nicely with arrow A too)

Nice support.

A week or two later, price closes under the line...

And that is when its time to exit.

And now its back above the line.

Is it a buy?

Nooo.

Why not?

Because the price is trading under your falling sma.

Never be buying when you see the price trading under the sma, especially if the sma is pointing down.

chart by r/PierresLongTermCharts

I use a weekly timeframe, so one can see much further back, whats been happening to the price.

Instead of using a 30 week simple moving average today, which would look pretty much the same, I have drawn in a blue up trendline, joining up some lows, going all the way back to February 2024.

This line has been touched about five times that I can see, and each time its held.

Its a strong trendline.

The return on this trendline is roughly about 127% per annum.

That's quite a mouthwatering return.

A very nice place to be able to park some cash.

But then if you look at the top, its made a peak dropped a bit then made a lower peak.

I joined these two with another line, facing downwards.

Then it fell back to our lower trendline again.

Then right on this line it gave us a buy signal in the way of a bullish harami.

And then rose again.

But it could be battling a little to rise above the upper line again.

Its just touched it.

It might come back again.

These two lines form what they call a "symmetrical triangle."

Its normally a continuation pattern.

You can google it.

So I am expecting it to break upwards, at some point.

One should wait for the break out before getting in.

If you already have these, they a long term hold.

Remember, I am just an ameteur at this, so don't hold me to it.