Let’s talk supply
AMD and ARM both jumped on Intel’s earnings and forecast. The CPU demand has been validated for investors. This has been pretty well discussed, although there are still many questions about how much demand there will be, and for how long.
Zinsner already said Intel is supply constrained by, at least, a billion dollars in sales. That’s meaningful, and with the projection on agentic compute being parity or swinging to the CPU side, it’s easy to see why these valuations are justified.
That said, I want to discuss supply in more depth and who’s positioned to capitalize/gain marketshare.
Will Intel be able to get more out of 18A in the near term? Will Fab 34 bring additional supply online just in time, or be a bit late?
Does AMD have an advantage with their TSMC relationship, or is supply so constrained it doesn’t matter? Are their comments already set for the near term without any flexibility?
Will Google, Amazon MSFT and Nvidia’s ARM CPUs absorb increased demand, or is supply too constrained for them to make meaningful dents.
We’re entering into a COU craze. Who can supply the goods? Can Intel pull a feather out of its cap and truly capitalize, where others are reliant on an overstretched TSMC?