u/microalpha26

CMP: ~₹300

Context:
Stock ran parabolic to ~₹350, then corrected ~60% to ₹190. Classic distribution phase post rally.

Despite the fall, ₹200–₹250 demand zone is still intact → not a full trend reversal yet, more like a correction inside a broader bullish structure.

Key Levels:

• Support: ₹200–₹250 (monthly demand)
• Intermediate support: ₹270 (pullback zone)
• Resistance: ₹300–₹310 (current supply)
• Breakout level: ₹320–₹340 (weekly structure shift)

Structure:

• Weekly = no confirmed reversal yet (still recovery phase)
• Bounce ₹190 → ₹295 = imbalance fill, not trend change
• Daily = approaching key resistance (₹300–₹310) → decision zone

Expectation:

• Rejection at ₹300 → pullback toward ₹270
• Break + hold above ₹320 → bullish continuation toward highs

Fundamentals:

• Revenue growth: ~70% YoY (Q3), ~50% 9M → strong acceleration
• Order book ~₹3,900 Cr → multi-year visibility
• IDL Explosives deal → ₹4,000 Cr contract access
• Lifetime defence licence → structural upgrade
• Strong govt tailwinds (domestic defence push)

Risk:

• Extremely high valuation → sensitive to execution delays

Trade Setup:

• Entry: ₹270 (pullback + confirmation)
• Stop Loss: ₹240
• Target: ₹360
• R:R: ~1:3

Check my video for a proper analysis, and let me know what you think of it

https://youtu.be/1O5sqvIR41Q

CMP: ~₹412

Context:
Stock peaked near ₹475–₹481 after a strong 5G-driven rally. Post that, volume declined on higher prices → classic distribution. Smart money likely exited into strength.

Now price is back at ₹400–₹412, a major monthly demand (origin of rally + liquidity zone). This is a decision point for institutions.

Key Levels:

• Support: ₹400–₹412 (monthly demand)
• Breakdown zone: ₹390–₹405 (FVG below)
• Major downside demand: ₹312–₹330
• Resistance: ₹428–₹438 (bearish OB)
• Trigger: ₹428

Structure:

• Weekly trend = bearish (LH + LL since Feb 2026)
• BOS happened below ₹440
• Currently sitting at support but no reversal confirmation yet
• Daily shows weak downtrend + small wicks at ₹412 → buyers trying, but not proven

Expectation:

• Hold above ₹412 → possible move to ₹428–₹438
• Break ₹428 → shift in structure → upside opens
• Lose ₹400 → quick move into ₹390–₹405, possibly deeper

Fundamentals:

• Profit drop = base effect (Vodafone Idea adjustments), not core weakness
• Vi risk stabilising → major overhang reducing
• Strong operating growth (tower additions + colocations)
• 5G = structural demand tailwind
• Expanding internationally (Africa, Middle East)
• ~25% ROE/ROCE, improving balance sheet
• Valuation ~11–12x → discounted vs quality

Trade Setup:

• Entry: ₹435 (break + retest of resistance)
• Stop Loss: ₹400
• Target: ₹540
• R:R: ~1:3

I've attached my analysis as well check it out once and let me know what you think about it.

If you have differing views do let me know as well, that would be appreciated.

https://youtu.be/AMOKFPfPFfc

CMP: ₹2,583

Context
On the monthly, TCS has been in a clear bearish phase since the ₹4,400 top. Every rally through 2025 got sold into — no real bullish structure, indicating institutional exit rather than accumulation.

Now price has dropped into ₹2,350–₹2,580 — a major monthly demand zone (origin of prior move + liquidity below). But this is still counter-trend unless structure shifts.

Key Levels:

• Support: ₹2,350–₹2,580 (monthly demand)
• Resistance: ₹3,100 (weekly supply flip)
• Trigger zone: ₹2,650–₹2,700

Structure:

• Weekly shows a sharp ~30% drop from ₹3,200 → ₹2,346 (liquidity sweep + unwind)
• Currently range-bound between demand and supply
• Daily shows a liquidity sweep at ₹2,346 and early bounce, but no confirmed reversal yet

Expectation:
If price reclaims ₹2,700, next magnet is ₹2,700–₹3,000 (FVG). Until then, this is just a relief rally.

Fundamentals (why this matters):

• Revenue growth weak in constant currency (macro slowdown)
• Deal wins strong (~₹3.4L Cr pipeline) → forward visibility intact
• Margins ~27% OPM (best in sector)
• AI revenue already meaningful (~₹19K Cr)
• Stronger deal pipeline positioning vs peers (Infosys, Wipro, HCL)

Trade Setup:

• Entry: ₹2,700 (break + retest)
• Stop Loss: ₹2,400
• Target: ₹3,600
• R:R: ~1:3

I've attached my in depth analysis as well for anyone confused as to how I got to my analysis.

If you have differing views do let me know as well, that would be appreciated.

https://youtu.be/KjbGv5ehQao