u/lightWeightFounder

Market Vibe: High Probability Bullish Reversal, Suggestion to trade with low amount of ATM Options

Trade Structure

• Signal Ticker: NIFTY
• Traded Instrument: NIFTY Futures, NIFTY Options
• Entry Structure Options: 3 legs, 1 lot each
• Entry Structure Futures: 1 leg, 1 lot each
• Capital Reserved: ₹4,15,000
• Capital Utilised: ₹2,43,000
• Entry Time: 9:17 AM after confirmation

After yesterday's unsustained momentum morning prediction was price will drop but reverse for bullish leg, crude supported the prediction. Major fuck ups happened because of half baked 5AM push, handled positions manually.

I was optimizing my parameters/data pipeline last night for AI debate structure, and somehow messed up broker integration and went to sleep with half ass code. Anyways the prediction was on point but execution was not hence whole code turned itself into paper signal machine. Manually took entries at each suggested leg.

I had modified my whipsaw issue as identified yesterday and gained almost 140 more points. Could have ended the day with roughly 10,000 but new candle close system added 140 pts also backtest confirmed the thesis when tested.

Though process is to figure out testing framework which can help me lower the chances of such errors. Please suggest some good libraries if you got any, not something with major overhaul, but runs my code from external files so that my core code is never touched.

Good news is another few good days and we will be able to double the size of our code + planning on shifting from dhan to zerodha for historical verified P&L with the defined lot sizes.

NIFTYBANK is also shaping up, found critical leaks in Oily so will fix them. Also NAV has really taken good form in the bearish market so maybe will spend some time working for trade management there as well.

Market Vibe: High Probability Bullish Reversal, Suggestion to trade with low amount of ATM Options

Trade Structure

• Signal Ticker: NIFTY
• Traded Instrument: NIFTY Futures, NIFTY Options
• Entry Structure Options: 3 legs, 1 lot each
• Entry Structure Futures: 1 leg, 1 lot each
• Capital Reserved: ₹4,15,000
• Capital Utilised: ₹2,43,000
• Entry Time: 9:17 AM after confirmation

After yesterday's unsustained momentum morning prediction was price will drop but reverse for bullish leg, crude supported the prediction. Major fuck ups happened because of half baked 5AM push, handled positions manually.

I was optimizing my parameters/data pipeline last night for AI debate structure, and somehow messed up broker integration and went to sleep with half ass code. Anyways the prediction was on point but execution was not hence whole code turned itself into paper signal machine. Manually took entries at each suggested leg.

I had modified my whipsaw issue as identified yesterday and gained almost 140 more points. Could have ended the day with roughly 10,000 but new candle close system added 140 pts also backtest confirmed the thesis when tested.

Though process is to figure out testing framework which can help me lower the chances of such errors. Please suggest some good libraries if you got any, not something with major overhaul, but runs my code from external files so that my core code is never touched.

Good news is another few good days and we will be able to double the size of our code + planning on shifting from dhan to zerodha for historical verified P&L with the defined lot sizes.

NIFTYBANK is also shaping up, found critical leaks in Oily so will fix them. Also NAV has really taken good form in the bearish market so maybe will spend some time working for trade management there as well.

Market Vibe: High Probability Bullish Reversal, Suggestion to trade with low amount of ATM Options

Trade Structure

• Signal Ticker: NIFTY
• Traded Instrument: NIFTY Futures, NIFTY Options
• Entry Structure Options: 3 legs, 1 lot each
• Entry Structure Futures: 1 leg, 1 lot each
• Capital Reserved: ₹4,15,000
• Capital Utilised: ₹2,43,000
• Entry Time: 9:17 AM after confirmation

After yesterday's unsustained momentum morning prediction was price will drop but reverse for bullish leg, crude supported the prediction. Major fuck ups happened because of half baked 5AM push, handled positions manually.

I was optimizing my parameters/data pipeline last night for AI debate structure, and somehow messed up broker integration and went to sleep with half ass code. Anyways the prediction was on point but execution was not hence whole code turned itself into paper signal machine. Manually took entries at each suggested leg.

I had modified my whipsaw issue as identified yesterday and gained almost 140 more points. Could have ended the day with roughly 10,000 but new candle close system added 140 pts also backtest confirmed the thesis when tested.

Though process is to figure out testing framework which can help me lower the chances of such errors. Please suggest some good libraries if you got any, not something with major overhaul, but runs my code from external files so that my core code is never touched.

Good news is another few good days and we will be able to double the size of our code + planning on shifting from dhan to zerodha for historical verified P&L with the defined lot sizes.

NIFTYBANK is also shaping up, found critical leaks in Oily so will fix them. Also NAV has really taken good form in the bearish market so maybe will spend some time working for trade management there as well.

Market Vibe: Choppy market with a high probability of sustaining long side. Reduced lot size at 9:15 itself because of the choppy prediction.

Trade Structure

• Signal Ticker: NIFTY
• Traded Instrument: NIFTY Futures
• Entry Structure: 2 legs, 1 lot each
• Total Lots: 2
• Capital Reserved: ₹4,15,000
• Capital Utilised: ₹3,45,000
• Entry Time: 9:17 AM after confirmation

I was expecting today to be a negative day since this was the first choppy day after the last 8 sessions. My expectation was that even if SL didn’t hit, TP probably wouldn’t either — but the market had other plans.

Two Major Learnings Today

1. Algo Error / Oversight There was a small issue in the algo while computing Leg 2 prices. The tick size was assumed to be 0.05, whereas NSE allows only 0.1 for this contract. Because of that, our Leg 2 order failed and we had to manually execute it at a slightly different price. This created a minor mismatch between the dashboard P&L and Dhan.

2. Wick Whipsaw Events This one is more important.

My entire backtest assumes SL/TP execution exactly at defined levels because the logic checks whether SL/TP falls within the high-low range of a minute candle. What I never accounted for was the possibility of exiting only after the candle closes and sustains beyond those levels instead of reacting to temporary wicks.

We saw this behavior both yesterday and today.

So now I’m running a separate backtest to analyze:

Candle close-based exits Sustained breakout logic Impact on overall system expectancy and drawdowns

Someone commented yesterday saying we should continue monitoring the algos closely. Honestly, I slept at 4 AM and was extremely sleepy today, but that one comment stayed in my head. I forced myself to stay awake and monitor the trades till completion.

That ended up being my biggest learning of the day:

Continue monitoring. Never assume the system is perfect just because the backtest looks good.

On the positive side, our NIFTYBANK algo also showed good structure today and took a solid trade. I personally expected NIFTYBANK to rest today like yesterday, but clearly the algo gods had different calculations in mind — calculations I missed because of the NIFTY situation.

Still, I won’t deploy NIFTYBANK live yet.

Until NIFTY stabilizes for at least a week without any manual intervention from my side, I’m holding off. I have larger capital planned for deployment, and right now the focus is on building the mindset and discipline required to operate as a full-time trader.

Market Vibe: Choppy market with a high probability of sustaining long side. Reduced lot size at 9:15 itself because of the choppy prediction.

Trade Structure

• Signal Ticker: NIFTY
• Traded Instrument: NIFTY Futures
• Entry Structure: 2 legs, 1 lot each
• Total Lots: 2
• Capital Reserved: ₹4,15,000
• Capital Utilised: ₹3,45,000
• Entry Time: 9:17 AM after confirmation

I was expecting today to be a negative day since this was the first choppy day after the last 8 sessions. My expectation was that even if SL didn’t hit, TP probably wouldn’t either — but the market had other plans.

Two Major Learnings Today

1. Algo Error / Oversight There was a small issue in the algo while computing Leg 2 prices. The tick size was assumed to be 0.05, whereas NSE allows only 0.1 for this contract. Because of that, our Leg 2 order failed and we had to manually execute it at a slightly different price. This created a minor mismatch between the dashboard P&L and Dhan.

2. Wick Whipsaw Events This one is more important.

My entire backtest assumes SL/TP execution exactly at defined levels because the logic checks whether SL/TP falls within the high-low range of a minute candle. What I never accounted for was the possibility of exiting only after the candle closes and sustains beyond those levels instead of reacting to temporary wicks.

We saw this behavior both yesterday and today.

So now I’m running a separate backtest to analyze:

Candle close-based exits Sustained breakout logic Impact on overall system expectancy and drawdowns

Someone commented yesterday saying we should continue monitoring the algos closely. Honestly, I slept at 4 AM and was extremely sleepy today, but that one comment stayed in my head. I forced myself to stay awake and monitor the trades till completion.

That ended up being my biggest learning of the day:

Continue monitoring. Never assume the system is perfect just because the backtest looks good.

On the positive side, our NIFTYBANK algo also showed good structure today and took a solid trade. I personally expected NIFTYBANK to rest today like yesterday, but clearly the algo gods had different calculations in mind — calculations I missed because of the NIFTY situation.

Still, I won’t deploy NIFTYBANK live yet.

Until NIFTY stabilizes for at least a week without any manual intervention from my side, I’m holding off. I have larger capital planned for deployment, and right now the focus is on building the mindset and discipline required to operate as a full-time trader.

Market Vibe: Observed Bearish Momentum continuation, entered at confirmation 9:16 Signal Ticker: NIFTY Traded Ticker: NIFTY FUTURES Lots Traded: 2 Capital Reserved: 4,15,000 Capital Utilised: 3,45,000 (Roughly)

I did a lot of backtesting, and point in time, walk forward, and then live forward testing over a month. The strategy was promising and hence let my algo do Live Trades since May 1st. Will do staggered lot multiplication as and when i build up drawdown wall, and waiting for a negative day.

Completely automated setup, I am also testing 5-6 more strategies in walk forward phase. We'll see how they play out.