Can you regularly run the predicted time from your watch on race day?
I often see people talk about how their race predictor time (calculated by Garmin, COROS, Strava, etc.) is too slow and doesn’t accurately reflect their abilities, even failing to update when they beat the predicted time in a race. I think I’m having the opposite problem.
After a couple nice years of beginner gains, I feel like I’m plateauing if not getting slower. My COROS and Strava both give me a predicted half marathon time of 1:40:XX-1:43:XX. Last weekend I went in with a goal of beating my PR from a year prior (1:46:XX) and if it was a good day, reaching for the low 1:40’s. I just couldn’t get my legs to come alive at all. I started slow but got even slower, and jogged it in at 1:50:XX. It felt pretty bad, zero energy.
This has been a trend since last fall or so. I’m consistently falling short of time goals that don’t seem like they should be that far out of reach.
What’s your experience with the COROS or Strava predictors, are they generally true to what you can achieve on a decent-to-good race day? I’d appreciate your perspective as I’m working through whether this is an issue with my training, data, or racing (or all three lol).