Running a Statcast-based HR model scoring hitters on Barrel %, Avg EV, park factors, and pitcher matchups. Here are tonight's top 10 targets on a 15-game slate.
Best value on the board tonight:
- Matt Olson (#1) leads the model despite T-Mobile Park (92) — his Statcast profile is just that dominant right now. Leading MLB in extra-base hits on the season
- Aaron Judge (#2) vs Nathan Eovaldi (flagged vulnerable) at Yankee Stadium (121) — one of the best HR props on the board tonight
- Bryce Harper (#4) at Citizens Bank Park (116) — great park factor boost
- Wrigley Field (108) shows up 3 times — Benson, Bleday and Busch all playing there tonight, solid stacking opportunity
- Moniak & Vientos both at Coors Field (138) — hard to fade either on HR props
Who are you targeting tonight?
Posting daily picks and graphics on X u/Bat2BallHQ if you want to follow along.