u/jittypicks

Model’s been seeing the board really well lately so here are the ML spots showing the best value today based on projected win probability vs market odds.

Dodgers ML
Model loves the pitching + offensive matchup here
One of the stronger projected win probabilities on the slate

Padres ML
Strong overall edge with favorable matchup indicators
Model projects this game significantly differently than the market

White Sox ML
Sneaky value spot the books may be undervaluing
Quietly one of the better EV plays today

Twins ML
Massive projected offensive advantage
One of the highest-scoring game projections on the board

Cubs ML
Aggressive dog value according to the model
Strong projected edge despite the plus-money price

Guardians ML
Big discrepancy between implied odds and projected win probability
Model expects offensive production here

Pirates ML
Riskier play, but solid value based on matchup + pricing
Market may be overrating the opponent

I track all of these daily and try to keep everything transparent/data-driven rather than just throwing darts at favorites.

Been posting more breakdowns and model insights lately for anyone interested in the analytics side of betting.

Pulled from my model (currently +26u, ~57% hit rate). Posting the ML spots where I’m seeing a legit edge vs implied odds.

Here’s what my model is telling me:

Toronto Blue Jays ML (+104)
Model: 54.4% vs Implied: 49%
Solid value on a short dog

Miami Marlins ML (+104)
Model: 68.6% vs Implied: 56%
One of the stronger edges on the board

Texas Rangers ML (-109)
Model: 69.5% vs Implied: 52%
Biggest edge today — strong across pitching + bats

Chicago Cubs ML (+139)
Model: 75.3% vs Implied: 63%
High-confidence dog shot

Chicago White Sox ML (-105)
Model: 62.9% vs Implied: 51%
Quiet edge, but numbers support it

Atlanta Braves ML (+123)
Model: 54.6% vs Implied: 45%
Value dog, decent EV gap

San Diego Padres ML (+113)
Model: 58.3% vs Implied: 47%
Another strong +EV dog

For your awareness:
- My model uses wOBA splits, pitching metrics, and market comparisons
- Our focus is strictly +EV, not just picking winners
- Some of these are dogs — variance is part of the game

If you want breakdowns on any specific play, drop a comment or shoot me a message.

I’ve been working on building out a sports betting Discord centered around data-driven picks and models, and I’m trying to figure out what people actually value in these communities.

There are a ton of servers out there, but most seem to fall into the same buckets:

Random picks with no explanation

Overhyped win rates / unit claims

Heavy paywalls without much transparency

I’m trying to go in a different direction — more structured, more data-backed, and more long-term focused.

Just a side note, so this doesn’t get taken the wrong way… I’m not here to promote or sell anything — not dropping links, not pitching a server. I genuinely just want feedback from people who have been in these communities so I can build something better that the two servers I’ve only ever been in.

For those of you who are in (or have been in) betting Discords:

What keeps you engaged?

Is it win rate?

Transparency?

Education / breakdowns?

Community discussion?

Volume of plays?

What makes you leave?

Too many plays?

Lack of consistency?

No real edge / explanation?

Toxic or dead community?

Feature-wise, what do you actually care about?

Some things I’ve been testing / thinking about:

Role-based notifications (only get alerted for sports you care about)

Clear unit tracking + verified records

Model-based picks vs. “feel” picks

Free vs VIP structure

Referral incentives

Curious what actually matters vs. what just sounds good on paper.

I’m not trying to build a “get rich quick” picks server — more of a long-term system + community around smarter betting.

I’ve got a small group already where I’ve been testing things and refining the approach, but before I scale it further, I want to make sure I’m building around what people actually want (not just what I think they want).

Would really appreciate honest feedback — even if it’s blunt.

I’ve spent the past month or so building out a fully automated sports betting model in Excel, and I finally feel like I’ve gotten my baseball pipeline down to a science.

Right now, my workflow includes:

Pulling data from multiple advanced sources (Statcast-type data, Fangraphs-style metrics, etc.)

Automating everything through Power Query / Power Automate

Building out team + player-level metrics, projections, and game targeting

I’ve been sharing some of the outputs and ideas with a small group/community in the Discord that I run, which has helped refine things a lot through feedback. In all honesty, the results have been awesome and I’m wanting to expand my coverage.

Certain sports, such as NFL, NBA, UFC, soccer (international included), golf, and tennis are some that come to mind.

But I’m running into a wall — baseball is the one sport where I really understand both the data and how it translates to outcomes.

For other sports, I’m trying to figure out:

What are the best advanced metrics to build around?

Where are people sourcing reliable, consistent data?

What’s worth paying for vs. building/scraping yourself?

If you’ve built models or worked with data in these sports, I’d really appreciate insight on:

Your go-to data sources / APIs

Metrics that actually have predictive value

Any tools or workflows that helped you scale

Mistakes to avoid when transitioning from baseball → other sports

I’m trying to build this into something more structured long-term (not just casual betting), and I enjoy collaborating with others working on similar stuff.

If anyone here is building models too and wants to bounce ideas around, I’m always open to connecting. Appreciate any help — even just pointing me toward a good dataset or metric is huge.