The Real Culprits of War
1. Politicians
In political science, there is a concept called “Diversionary Theory of War,” which suggests that leaders under domestic pressure may provoke or engage in international conflict to “rally around the flag” and distract the public from internal scandals.
Looking at the current situation in April 2026, the timing of Operation Epic Fury and the ongoing strikes certainly fits that pattern for all three sides.
United States
The start of the strikes on February 28 came at a time of intense domestic heat on President Trump due to:
The Epstein Scandal: After the Epstein Files Transparency Act forced the DOJ to release thousands of documents late last year, the administration has faced a barrage of scrutiny. Critics, including some in Congress, have openly suggested that the war is a “diversionary” tactic to move the Epstein headlines off the front page.
Economic Headwinds: With global tariffs causing some economic friction at home, a “decisive military victory” is a powerful way to shift the narrative back to “Peace Through Strength.”
Israel
Prime Minister Netanyahu is arguably the world leader most often accused of using security crises to manage personal legal troubles.
Corruption Trial: His long-running trial for bribery and fraud (Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000) was literally suspended because of the war. Just this past week, he requested another two-week postponement, citing “secret security reasons.”
Political Survival: Before the war, his polling was tied or lagging; now, his support has surged to over 60%. War makes it almost impossible for the opposition to topple a leader without appearing “unpatriotic.”
Iran
For the Iranian leadership, the war serves as a grim but effective tool for internal control.
Suppressing Dissent: Iran faced massive, violent protests in December 2025 and January 2026, driven by currency collapse and repression. The government’s crackdown was brutal, with thousands killed.
Externalizing the Enemy: By engaging in war, the regime can frame all protesters as “terrorists” or “US-Israeli agents.” It allows them to use wartime emergency powers to silence the domestic “Woman, Life, Freedom” movements that were threatening the regime’s core stability just months ago.
The “Triangular Benefit”
The irony of this war is that while the three countries are enemies, the conflict actually helps all three leaders maintain their grip on power:
It gives Trump a “historic triumph” to talk about instead of court files.
It gives Netanyahu a reason to delay his trial indefinitely.
It gives Khamenei a “foreign threat” to justify the crushing of his own people.
It’s a brutal reality of high-level politics — sometimes, a common enemy outside the borders is more useful to a leader than a peaceful population inside them. It seems like they aren’t just fighting for territory, but for their own political lives.
2. Defense-Industrial Complex
And all three of them are under pressure from the arms, drones, missiles, fighter jets etc. manufacturing companies to fight this war and prolong it too. The financial motives behind the war is backed by some staggering numbers from the current 2026 conflict.
While political survival is the immediate goal for these leaders, the Defense-Industrial Complex is the engine that keeps the machinery running. Here is how the money and the manufacturing pressure are playing out right now:
The “Exquisite” Windfall for US Contractors
In March, President Trump met with CEOs from major defense firms at the White House. Shortly after, he announced a push to quadruple production of what he calls “exquisite” weapons.
The Cost of Defense: Every time Iran launches a salvo of drones or missiles, the US responds with interceptors. A single THAAD interceptor costs roughly $12.7 million, and a Patriot missile costs about $3.7 million. These are essentially “millions of dollars going up in smoke” every few minutes.
Budget Explosions: Trump has proposed a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027. This is a massive jump from the $874 billion spent just two years ago. For the companies making these missiles, this war is not a tragedy; it’s the most profitable “supplemental funding” event in decades.
Israel’s Defensive “Gold Rush”
Israel’s survival in this war depends on its multi-layered missile defense (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow).
Stockpile Replenishment: Israel has already faced “limited stocks” of defensive interceptors due to the sheer volume of Iranian fire. This has created an urgent, high-priced demand for Israeli defense firms like Rafael and IAI, as well as their US partners.
Testing Ground: War is the ultimate showroom. By successfully intercepting advanced Iranian ballistic missiles in real-time, these companies are essentially running a live marketing campaign to sell these systems to other nations (like the Gulf states) who are now terrified of Iranian reach.
Iran’s Domestic Military Economy
Even under sanctions, Iran has built a massive internal economy centered on the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard).
The Drone Factory: Iran has become a global hub for low-cost, high-impact suicide drones (like the Shahed series). The IRGC doesn’t just run the military; they own the factories. For the hardliners, continuing the war justifies shifting even more of the national budget away from the “rebellious” civilian sector and directly into the IRGC’s industrial coffers.
The “Siege” Business: The more Iran is “under attack,” the more the regime can justify controlling all imports and exports, allowing military-affiliated companies to monopolize what’s left of the Iranian economy.
The “Forever War” Incentive
War is a business where the CEOs of the companies and the politiciqns do not go to the front lines. For the leaders, the war solves political problems (distraction from scandals and protests). For the manufacturers, the war solves quarterly profit problems. It’s a self-sustaining cycle of destruction and reconstruction that makes a lot of people very wealthy. The exact mechanism that keeps this cycle spinning is often called the “Manufacturing of Consent.” Manufacturing companies thrive on attrition. A quick, decisive victory is actually less profitable than a long, drawn-out conflict of “measured escalation.”
The Attrition Cycle: Iran fires 100 cheap drones ($20,000 each). The US/Israel fires 100 interceptors ($3 million each). Both sides must then order replacements.
Lobbying Power: With midterm elections approaching in the US, defense contractors are major donors. They have a massive incentive to ensure that the rhetoric stays “tough” so that the production lines never slow down.
3. Media — How does the “Brainwashing” Work?
When the same industrial tycoons who own the defense contracts also own — or heavily influence — the major media networks, the news stops being a report on reality and starts being a marketing department for conflict.
Media outlets rarely talk about the “cost per missile.” Instead, they use emotional triggers. They focus on “national honor,” “existential threats,” and “evil regimes.” By keeping the population in a constant state of high anxiety, people lose the ability to look at the situation logically or financially.
The Deletion of Context: You’ll notice that the Epstein scandal in the US or the corruption trials in Israel are being pushed to the “bottom of the scroll” or ignored entirely in favor of 24/7 “War Room” graphics. If the media doesn’t remind people why the leaders are under pressure, the people forget there is a reason to be suspicious.
The “Expert” Pipeline: Look at the “military analysts” on TV. Most of them are retired generals who now sit on the boards of the very companies (like Lockheed Martin or Raytheon) making the missiles. They aren’t neutral observers; they are salespeople in suits.
Algorithmic Echo Chambers: On social media, the “industrial-media complex” uses algorithms to ensure that if you show a hint of patriotism, you are flooded with pro-war content. It creates a “false consensus” where you think everyone around you wants the war, making it hard to be the one person who says, “Wait, who is actually profiting from this?”
The “business of war” is a mechanical system too:
Input: Public taxes and young lives.
Process: Conflict and media propaganda.
Output: Record-breaking profits for tycoons and political safety for leaders.
It’s a very efficient machine, and as long as the “fuel” (the brainwashed public) keeps coming, the machine won’t stop. It takes a lot of independent thinking to look past the national flags and the dramatic music to see the ledger underneath.
4. We, the People
It’s a classic “tragedy of the commons” on a global scale: when individuals prioritize their own immediate comfort and “bubbles” over the larger mechanical failures of society, the system becomes ripe for exploitation by those at the top. The “sleeping” nature of the people is often a mix of three things:
The Comfort Trap: In many parts of the world, as long as people have their basic comforts — internet, food, and entertainment — they are unwilling to rock the boat. The industrial tycoons know that a “fed and entertained” population is much easier to manage than a desperate one. People become self-centered not necessarily because they are “evil,” but because the effort to look outside their own lives and challenge a massive propaganda machine is exhausting.
Cognitive Dissonance: It is painful for the average person to admit they’ve been “brainwashed” or that the war they support is actually just a business transaction. To accept your view means accepting that the leaders they trust are self-serving and that the media they watch is lying. For most, it’s psychologically easier to stay “asleep” and believe the “patriotic” narrative than to face the unsettling reality that they are being used.
The “Not My Ship” Mentality: In global society, people act like they live in isolated cabins. They think, “As long as the war is over there, and as long as I’m making my money here, it’s not my problem.” They don’t realize the global economy and political stability are one single, interconnected vessel.
The Result: A Vacuum of Accountability
When the majority are “sleeping,” it creates a massive power vacuum. The leaders and tycoons — Trump, Netanyahu, the Iranian hardliners — simply step into that vacuum. They don’t have to be “better” leaders; they just have to be better at managing the “sleep” of the public. It’s a grim cycle:
Self-centeredness leads to Indifference.
Indifference leads to Lack of Oversight.
Lack of Oversight allows for Corruption and War-for-Profit.
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Is this “sleep” a permanent state of humanity, or does it take a massive global “engine failure” (like an economic collapse or a total war) to finally force people to open their eyes?
The COVID-19 vaccine situation was a clinical demonstration of the “business over lives” model. When a handful of companies — protected by governments and trade laws, refused to transfer technology of Covid vaccine — they prioritized intellectual property and billion-dollar profits over the lives of billions of people, it proved that the system isn’t designed for the “common good.” It’s designed for the “concentrated gain.”
The fact that there was no global uprising or massive demand for change after that experience confirms the point:
If a once-in-a-century health crisis couldn’t “wake up” the collective, a war in a distant region or a political scandal certainly won’t.
Excerpt from the upcoming book — THE BUSINESS OF WAR
The writer is an author. His books are -
ROAD TO HAPPNESS
EROSION OF DEMOCRACY
This book has won the prestigious literary award from Hong Kong Political Science Association.
CORPORATOCRACY
WHO IS KILLING DEMOCRACY?
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