u/jcgoble3

Per my understanding of the precise rules and sequence for casting a spell, this would be legal, but I would like to double check and be certain (and if not legal, learn why.)

Relevant cards for the scenario:

• 2 Forests on battlefield
• [[Chromatic Sphere]] on battlefield (not Chromatic Star -- Sphere is the one where the draw is part of the mana ability, which is essential here)
• [[Simian Spirit Guide]] known to be the top card of my library
• A spell in hand that I wish to cast that costs 1RR (doesn't matter what -- let's say [[Anax, Hardened in the Forge]] for the sake of example)

Assume that I specifically want to avoid activating mana abilities on an empty stack because of some effect controlled by an opponent that would put an undesired trigger on the stack -- I want Anax to be cast before the triggers fire.

The sequence:

• Declare that I am casting Anax and put it on the stack
• Determine cost:
  • The spell's base mana cost is 1RR
  • There are no alternative or additional costs that apply
  • There are no cost modifiers that apply
  • The final cost is 1RR
• Activate mana abilities:
  • Tap both Forests for GG
    • Mana pool: GG
  • Pay G to crack the Chromatic Sphere, adding R and drawing the Simian Spirit Guide
    • Mana pool: RG
  • Exile the Simian Spirit Guide that was just drawn to add R
    • Mana pool: RRG
• Pay the cost of 1RR using RRG

Is that a legal sequence? If not, why not?

It's pretty well known at this point that people closely connected to President Trump, if not Trump himself, are betting large sums of money on world events (e.g. attacking Iran) on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket and winning less than an hour later, obviously having insider knowledge. It would be comical in how poorly it's hidden and how obvious the grift is, if not for the sheer corruption involved. As a practical matter though, these trades are not found by the public until after the fact, given that the turnaround time between the wager and the event that resolves the market is often as little as 15 minutes.

That got me thinking about a couple of hypotheticals. Let's say that you devised an automated system, using only publicly available trade and account information, on these platforms, to identify in real time any trade/wager on a market that you believe to have a sign of such insider trading. And then you identify such a wager, believe it to be legit based only on the nature of the wager itself and the past patterns of the current administration, and jump on it yourself, putting, let's say, $10,000 of your own money on the same wager just minutes later. And then it does turn out to be legit and wins 10 minutes later when the breaking news hits. Are you guilty of insider trading or of any other crime? For that matter, do insider trading laws generally apply to prediction markets like this?

Second hypothetical is the same idea, but applied more generally to the regular old stock market, where insider trading laws unambiguously do apply. You devise a system, based only on information that is publicly accessible (though perhaps difficult/impossible to find unless you know where to look), to identify potential insider trades, identify one that looks legit, and quickly copy it yourself, either buying up or shorting a bunch of shares yourself as appropriate. You don't have actual insider knowledge yourself, but your entire system is based around copying illegal insider trades. Are you guilty of insider trading, or of any other crime?