u/jason-airroi

Each cell = one city × one day, World Cup 2026 group stage. Color shows premium over same day-of-week in 2025 (controls for the Sat>Tue weekly rhythm in lodging pricing). White-outlined cells are match days.

A few findings:

• The Final isn't the spike. MetLife on July 19 only hits +131% over baseline. The biggest single-match premium in the US is a Round of 32 game in Kansas City: +313% (June 29). Dallas peaks at +310% the same weekend.
• Kansas City and Dallas dominate — not the "tier 1" cities. LA peaks at +54%, SF at +47%, Boston +67%, Miami +102%. Mid-market metros pop harder because they have less inventory to absorb demand. Kansas City averages +279% across its 6 match-days; Dallas averages +269%.
• The "+109% YoY" headline buries the tail. Across 76 US match-days, the median is +109% — but P75 = +166%, and 1 in 10 match-days clears +268%. The arithmetic mean is hiding a very long right tail.
• Round of 32 and R16 outpace QF, SF, and the Final. R32 averages +161% match-day lift, R16 +160%, QF only +87%, Final +131%. The narrowing-field rounds concentrate demand into single dates more than the marquee games do.

Source: AirROI's database — ~16,000 active Airbnb listings, 1,000 closest to each of the 16 FIFA host stadiums (radius 4–32 km depending on local density).

Tools: Python pandas pipeline, SVG built directly in Node, rasterized via sharp.

Full Report at https://www.airroi.com/world-cup-2026-airbnb-data

Free for editorial use (attribution: "Source: AirROI" + link): master CSV (16 cities × ~20 metrics × 2 years), methodology PDF, chart pack at https://www.airroi.com/world-cup-2026-airbnb-data/press-kit