u/chatilo

Everyone’s still bullish on Bitcoin despite the ongoing geopolitical noise. Today the asset broke above $80,000 and is currently trading around $81,600.

In previous reviews I mentioned that price was approaching a level where a reaction was inevitable. Above $80,000 there was a CME gap, so it made sense to sweep liquidity there. At the same time, the overall move looked like a weak grind within a channel, with $80,000 acting as the upper boundary.

Eventually, buyers managed to break through, taking that level and fully closing the CME gap above it. Capital is now actively rotating into Bitcoin, and we’re seeing inertia-driven growth alongside strong moves in equities. However, as I pointed out before, this rally still doesn’t inspire confidence. The main issue is uncertainty around upcoming inflation data and future Fed decisions. Inflation data comes with a lag, but the direction is fairly clear and it’s not improving. That puts the Fed in a position where they may have to react, which could become a pressure point for an already fragile crypto market.

As for the current zone, it remains critical for Bitcoin’s next move. The level has been taken, liquidity above has been cleared, and shorts got squeezed hard.

From here, there are two paths. If buyers hold above $80,000, it confirms a breakout from the channel that’s been forming since the $60,000 area. If price rejects and drops back below, then this becomes a false breakout, likely followed by a move down a classic shakeout of late longs who already believe $100,000 is next.

Right now the market is at a crossroads. But with key macro data approaching, I lean toward a weaker, red summer for Bitcoin.

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