The CA/Browser Forum's Ballot SC-081 is already in effect. 200-day max as of March 2026, 100 days in March 2027, 47 days in March 2029.
The math on renewal workload scales linearly: 50 certificates managed manually goes from ~50 renewals a year at 398 days to ~400 at 47 days. Same cert count, 8x the operations work.
Wrote up the canonical schedule and what it does to teams still running manual processes: https://www.certkit.io/blog/shrinking-certificate-lifetimes