Thinking of FIREing: fearing long term unknowns
Secondary account used only a couple of times
TL;DR
Late 40s, US/EU citizen, single/no kids, ~$5-6M liquid. High-income job in Europe, but I have mentally checked out and am thinking of FIREing or being FIREd. Historical spend in VHCOL US city was ~$40k–80k/year excluding taxes; European spend still unclear.
Main concern is whether taxes, future housing, longevity, and possible long-term care make RE riskier than it looks. Looking for a sanity check on whether these fears are rational and how others would model/manage them
I know basic FIRE maths looks ok (4% of 5m much bigger than 80k) but how should I think of the above concerns?
Context
I am thinking of FIREing or be FIREd: currently working in Europe with high income(by european standards, however do not enjoy what I am doing anymore and have essentially checked out (by my standards) one or two years ago and would not be surprised if it eventually catches up to me. Given my company timelines and country regulations it would take a while for from when they decide to get rid of me to actually being out without a job.
Personal Info
US / EU citizen, late 40s, no kids, not married. Health: good, though family history makes think both about longevity and late-life health-care risks (including long term care)
Liquid Worth
I currently have USD 5-6m liquid worth, mostly in the US but some in other countries.
Overall allocation is 25% cash and bonds, 75% equity low cost index funds
The above is split approximately 50% taxable and accessible, 50% tax advantage but locked till 55.
Housing
I am renting in the country I am currently living in for work
I own a house in another European country that I keep empty for me to use when I visit friends.
I also have family housing options in my home country that I use when visiting, and very likely will eventually inherit.
Spending
While living in a VHCOL US city my yearly spending ranged between 40k-80k excluding taxes (so inclusive of housing, trips, etc). The high end included some medical procedures not covered by insurance at the time.
Do not yet know what my spending is like in Europe
Scenario I am considering
- I could FIRE in a relatively tax-friendly European country
- I could FIRE in my home country (preferred) to spend quality time with my parents. Issue is that investments would be taxed very heavily, with poor/no offsetting for capital losses
- II could eventually move back to the US, likely to a high-tax state where close family currently lives
Concerns
Issues on my mind are (a) what if I move back to US and need to buy a house at a later age? (b) what if I live a very long time e.g. 100 (c) what if I need expensive care for a long period of that life
Those concerns + the high tax rate of scenario 2 are making me feel uncomfortable with the idea of "RE" though I am very attracted to it.
I am not even sure what is my question - maybe getting a sense check if my fear are irrational, ways to manage the concerns, suggestion on how to manage tax jurisdictions, should I quite or coast, ...