u/antarc0

"The Taliban are moving to shut Afghanistan off from the world.

Last week, Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada appointed Mullah Abdul Ahad Fazli, a former Helmand field commander, as Minister of Telecommunications and Technology. His first actions reveal a dangerous escalation.

Together with Taliban intelligence, his ministry raided the offices of Moby Media Group. The operation lasted eight hours. Journalists, producers, administrators, and female staff were detained while Taliban forces searched phones, servers, hard drives, and internal data systems.
This morning, the same minister ordered internet providers across Afghanistan to cut household internet access. Last year, Taliban communication blackouts crippled banking, airports, businesses, and even parts of their own administration in Kabul.
Taliban authorities have also instructed the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Higher Education to stop confirming academic records for Afghan students seeking education abroad, while ignoring verification requests from international universities.
The next phase will be the denial of citizenship services for Afghans abroad — cutting millions of Afghans off from their own country.

Why is this happening?

As internal Taliban divisions deepen and public anger grows, Haibatullah believes media, telecommunications, and contact with the outside world threaten his control. His answer is isolation, censorship, and fear." https://x.com/SayedSamiSadat/status/2053850067711185226

I personally think there is alot of reasons the leader of the Taliban wants to shut off the internet. He fears that the internet is moving people away from the religion and has things like hijabless women, adult sites, moves people away from praying by getting them addicted and that they are getting more educated and open minded by being in touch with the outer world. They also don't want the videos of their fighters beating people and raping women that go viral every week getting out. It is also to preserve their totalitarian rule cause it's the only place the Taliban get criticized openly and they get exposed.

The question is what will the people of Afghanistan do? Will they be quiet as usual the same way they did when the schools got banned? Unless they start treating the Taliban like they did the Soviets or the way they treated Farkhunda nothing will change.

Edit: Sources familiar with the matter told Afghanistan International that the Taliban and Iran have cooperated on developing a mobile phone application capable of monitoring users in Afghanistan.

𝗔𝗳𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗮𝗻-𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗞𝗲𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽
Radio Television Afghanistan (RTA), run by the Taliban, recently announced the launch of the National RTA Keyboard Software for Android and iOS devices. The multilingual keyboard is designed for Afghan users and supports Pashto, Dari, and English.
Following criticism from an Afghan expert, Agha Malok Sahar, who warned that the software could potentially be used to monitor users, a Taliban official responded by calling for a ban on Darrak Software And Tracking Ltd, a private Afghan company owned by the critic.
The incident highlights the Taliban’s intolerance of criticism and raises broader concerns about censorship, surveillance, and attempts to establish monopoly control over digital services in Afghanistan.

It looks like Afghanistan is going to be like Iran and North Korea where they monitor everything and see every keystroke and like if there is any internet.

"If the world is divided into two broad categories, the first is the Heartland, or the “pivot area,” a region encompassing Russia and Central Asia that is resource-rich but lacks direct and effective access to open waters. This landlocked territory has repeatedly undergone political transformations throughout history. In contrast lies the Rimland, or the “marginal lands,” comprising countries and coastlines connected to open waters that control a significant share of global trade, an arena in which the United States holds considerable influence and dominance.

Within this framework, another geopolitical concept known as the Crossland is emerging. It functions as an intersection point between the Heartland and the Rimland and could become a new pathway for either cooperation or confrontation. The United States, operating within this framework, is working to construct a geopolitical “wall” around Russia and China to prevent these two powers from expanding freely and becoming unchallenged forces. The tensions surrounding Iran can also be assessed within this context. Iran functions as a wall or chokepoint, capable of either blocking or facilitating the communication corridor between the Heartland and open waters."

I suspect that over the next 10 to 20 years all regional states will follow the same playbook as Pakistan like taking over small chunks of land and signing deals with the local population like they did in Nuristan, Kunar and Nangarhar and took over 32km square land in Paktika and haven't retreated. If the Iranian regime survives, it will make similar moves in western Afghanistan despite its close ties with the Taliban. China will do the same in the northeast, and Central Asian states will push into the north all to protect themselves against terrorist groups like ISIS, ETIM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Tajikistan, the IMU, and others that will be stronger and better recruited in a decade thanks to Taliban madrassas and the economic devastation they have created. Recently Liu Zongyi, Director of (SIIS) a think tank in China concluded that Taliban will not give up their ETIM brothers after their meeting with Taliban officials and that they don't really value chinese investment or development projects because it mostly benefits their side. Taliban also called out Chinese official for the puny amount of aid given compared to EU and US.  Tajik President Emomali Rahmon urged the CSTO to create a security belt around Afghanistan and he said ther are 40 terrorists camps with 6,000 militants in northeastern Afghanistan. Many other states have the same concern but they are quiet and engaging with the Taliban like hostages so the Taliban don't unleash the terrorists on them.

Iran and China will also move to secure water, resources and securing height for strategic advantage and to tackle drug smuggling. High-risk areas include the Wakhan Corridor, which could effectively be split between China and Pakistan. The Taliban will hold their stronghold in the south, but pieces of the country will slowly be lost.

The United states continues to support the Taliban covertly by sending in 40-80 million dollars a week to inject into the central bank and fund the Taliban budget. Their policy will likely not change unless there is a major terrorists attack and the Taliban stop cooperating. CIA already has presence in Bagram and has total airspace control over Afghanistan. It can fly all the surveillance drones and planes it wants to monitor all the camps inside Afghanistan. Their goal is likely to prevent terrorist threats to the US and it's allies but not necessarily stopping it if it's directed towards Russia and China.

I hope I am wrong, but I see no future for the region besides terrorism and black flags waging endless war on the region. The only ones that can change the future is the people of Afghainstan deciding to do a national uprising/revolution and to take their fate in their own hands instead of outsiders deciding it for them. The 2nd is the United States taking military action which will only happen if the Taliban are involved in an attack like 9/11 Taliban have learned their lesson they will never lose power like that again.

https://8am.media/eng/afghanistan-at-the-crossroads-of-global-geopolitics/