u/Wonderful_Snow_616

This market is going to grow from 75B USD to 150B-240B USD in 2035.

The landscape is changing at breakneck speed. New players like Hims are racing to claim their share of the telehealth boom, channeling surging demand onto their platforms. Meanwhile, NVO, once considered to be washed, has leapfrogged LLY in oral treatments after launching its pill, injecting fresh momentum into the market.

Big pharma giants are scrambling to break in, with PFE racing ahead despite only modest Phase 2b results, launching 10 Phase 3 trials to unlock the market's massive ROI.

Viking Therapeutics leads the pack as the most advanced Phase III pure-play anti-obesity contender, while industry heavyweights circle with deep pockets, fueling a wave of M&A rumors.

This market is in an intense growth phase, with demand spiking so high that Eli Lilly started producing its oral pill far before going commercial to avoid compounding companies entering the market, as happened with the subcutaneous form. More on my profile.

I am not holding any positions in this market yet, but I plan to buy into VKTX before their Q3 maintenance readout.

$VKTX

I'm trying to collect my thoughts on an acquisition in this post.

1. Viking Therapeutics has funding to complete its trials, as well as the market cap to raise additional capital if needed.
2. Their peak sales are commonly estimated at around $14.4B to $21.6B, which (I ran the numbers through a DCF) makes no sense to result in the analyst targets, which seem low to me.
3. Furthermore, their weight loss pill is the only dual agonist pill that would hit the market if the trials are successful, which would give them a large advantage.
4. I am not sure how these peak-sales numbers are derived, but I am writing an article about the market, and it is commonly projected to grow to 150B-190B, or even 240B, USD by 2035, suggesting higher peak-sales could be possible.
5. Other companies like $KLRA (mostly in Phase II) still seem a bit early, compared to VKTX. VKTX's oral pill, despite dropout rates being somewhat of an issue, also appears more efficacious, making it the only current acquisition target for larger companies.

The points above illustrate why the company has incredible leverage and make it really attractive in any M&A negotiations. If the CEO knows his worth, he will likely want a price much higher than the current stock price, and estimates, which in turn will result in an astronomical price that could be hard for some companies to justify to their stockholders.

If there is a deal, I am super curious about the price and financing. If they're not, I'll follow the case as far as the dilution if they go it alone, which should be manageable, but nonetheless interesting.