u/Useful-Formal-3130

As we know we can't solve geopolitical issues. The only way as investors we can think is " How we can protect our money and grow in this environment "

War will gets ended and there will be recovery this narrative is applicable when you are going to regular handsome income to invest in lower levels

People who are already 100% invested for them even recovery comes still maximum their portfolio will reach to 0% loss position.

Consider a assumptions war will end in 2 months and we are going to have recovery period of 2-3 months. We can consider till June war will end and till sept 2026 near to full recovery occurs.

Our portfolio highest position is at sept 2024 level after that our portfolio not reached to that level. After two years we are going to at same level.

Due to sudden positivity of war end nifty may reach it highest point of 26300 level but issue after this level it's never going to sustain until there is strong earning growth.

we already knows our 70% industries facing large scale raw material and inflation crisis.

After a war ending gas and crude will not comes down all of sudden. Brent crude may come down but for Indian basket we needs to buy oil at still higher levels until all plants of gulf countries gets operational

All the supply chain needs 6-8 months to functional like earlier.

Indian economy will not be the same like pre-war.

In the covid we have seen many products prices gone up and after end of covid prices has fallen but not came to pre covid levels. Covid has given permanent one time inflation effect other than regular inflation.

Similar things will happen this time too.

I am regular income guy so i can save 2-3 months salary to invest again in lower levels and same time i cab exit from the debt position go in equity to get benefit of recovery.

Theoretically it feel amazing but practically this happen only when you are too intelligent to invest.

We can say participating whole recovery will not possible because we can't decide lower point but definitely we can participate in partial recovery

Trump is variable and even if Iran says they goes with diplomacy still there is chance Trump can take u turn and again start bombing.

To avoid trap we can do things more discpline way with old strategies. Divide your money in 7-8 portions.

When Iran confirms the diplomacy start investing step wise manner. You may get avg levels

Start buying from tomorrow not going to good idea because of risk reward ratio not going to be in favor

We are not doing things by looking fundamental of the market. Only point in front of us is we needs to participate in recovery period

Fundamentally even at this market is still over valued.

Some people may argue india story etc. This narrative is already gone. Our economic situation too bad right now and there is no visibility or roadmap for next 1 year.

PE valuation of nifty 50 and nifty midcap is still higher than avg PE. Above avg PE given by the market when there positive growth sentiment. Even we are in very negative sentiment still we have given above avg PE to the market.

PE itself doesn't decide valuation of companies but PE is one most important indicator to show Overvaluation.

I have invested commercial real estate in 2022. The value of property has gone 2.5 times in these 4 years and few months ago after good residential growth in this area, someone is taken that land to run a shop. Even if today I sell there is strong demand because of good rental income.

Like today my commercial land 2000 sqft generate 18 lakh rental income. FD rate currently 6-7%. Generally people consider 6% rental is best for commercial real estate excluding gst. The market rate of 2000 sqft property whose rental is 18 lac per year is right now is in the range of 2.5 cr to 3 cr.

Evey year there is increment of 5% in rental and this automatically increase property value at 5-6% every year.

In nifty 50 Or nifty mid cap situation not like that. Current valuation is high, profit growth expectations are low, FIIs are selling, Rupee is going down, AI is killing jobs, Govt busy in free bees to win election's and world is in war situation But is nifty is trading Overvaluation.

Wise decision is just to participate in recovery and once nifty reaches near to highest level just diversify the Portfolio into debt, real estate.

There is nothing new we know Iran never to give value to the Trump

Fear is Trump is don't have mind and he knows only way to solve issues is "Bullying".

There is huge chance he can take decision to start heavy bombing to power and energy infra of Iran

Common sense Iran will retaliate by attacking on gulf and Israel.

Is this occur again crude will go much higher price and indian market again falls

In short term our hope is only Rupee. Like Russia-ukarine war Modiji not going to stop the war but possibility if Iran war gets stopped for 5-10 min also Modiji may claim " War rukva di, Papa". Only way we can save our economy is using Modiji technology of producing gas from Gutter.

One thing is clear Iran never going to end this war until Iran's conditions are accepted.

There is no clear sign of war goes towards ending within 2-3 weeks. But Trump wants to end it early.

F15 and another fighter jet has shoot down in Iran. This is clearly humiliation of United States and Trump.

Trump already compromised on strait of harmoz and given proposal of ceasefire within 48 hours. Iran rejected this proposal.

Trump has left with limited choice. Either use too heavy bombs and destroy all civilian infra of Iran and make situation like femine

or

Use diplomacy and accept few conditions same time make Iran to accept few conditions of America and show such a way both the countries won but this has low probability

We don't have solution for any of these problems.

my holding in stocks gone 17.8% down on Thursday.. I have sold around 20% of equity to shift in debt to improve risk profile. I am still holding 40% of stocks, 23℅ around mutual fund, 37% is currently in debt.

We can hope for positive but same time we should prepare for worst.

Equity always given one of the best return in last 13 years but sometimes we needs to understand what is our risk appetite and diversity according to it

There is very low probability that war may get end within 2-3 week and escalation continue then out portfolio may have hit of 5-15% more from here.

We can't say surely what's going to happen, only we can say things in probability and take the decision.

Selling all the portfolio is wrong but not selling the stocks which are going to huge impact of war also going be wrong( considering war is going to escalate)

most of the right now in portfolio are hospital ind, auto, graphite, jewellery ( titan, p n gadgil only these 2), pharma

These are stock consider to be safe currently but if war goes elongated even these companies also going to give major loss. There is fear of loosing money but same time past record of war says people who were taken exit rarely participated in recovery.