u/TraderFanFXE

WTI oil gained 3.5% as President Trump rejected Iran's offer and noted that he wanted a better deal.

Oil prices are moving higher, but it looks that the market is skeptical about a potential restart of the military operation against Iran. Today's inflation report showed that inflation rate increased to 3.8%, exceeding the analyst estimate of 3.7%.

Trump has already started to talk about a gasoline tax holiday, which indicates that high gasoline prices, which were triggered by the Iran war, have become a political problem.

In addition, it looks that current price levels have already started to put pressure on global demand. WTI oil will remain volatile in the near term, but it will surely need strong catalysts to get out of the current trading range.

Silver markets are showing signs of life as traders prepare for the potential peace deal in the Middle East.

Gold/silver ratio is at multi-week lows, which shows that speculative money has already started to move into silver.

Technically, silver will likely need to get above the $84-$86 area to confirm the breakout.

WTI oil rebounded from session lows as traders questioned progress in U.S. - Iran talks. It looks that many players were ready to boost their long positions in the $91 - $92 area.

Importantly, WTI oil failed to settle below the 50 MA, which was a positive development for the bulls. That said, WTI oil will likely need significant geopolitical catalysts to climb back towards recent highs near $110.

If WTI oil settles below the 50 MA, it will confirm the bearish pattern and may ultimately move towards $80.

It's a disappointing day for the bulls as WTI oil pulls back despite Iran's attack on the United Arab Emirates.

U.S. believes the ceasefire is still valid. UAE does not (or cannot) respond. The technical picture starts looking bearish, although the situation may change quickly if negotiations stall completely and U.S. restarts the military operation against Iran.

A move below the $100 level may push WTI oil towards the 50 MA at $92.54.

Gold tested new lows as Iran attacked UAE. Gold trades as a risk asset, so the price is moving lower amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The technical picture remains bearish. Gold will be ready to move towards the $4350 area in case it settles below the $4500 level.

It is highly likely that some central banks are already forced to sell gold to support local currencies and economies, which were hit by high energy prices. It remains to be seen whether big buyers like China will step in and boost purchases or wait for lower prices.

Brent oil pulled back as traders took some money off the table ahead of May. It looks that longs were exhausted as prices moved lower in absence of negative catalysts.

It remains to be seen whether pullback continues in early May. Funds may have exhausted their limits for April, but they could be ready to buy when the new month begins.

The 5-min chart above shows that the sell-off was fast, but it looks that it was driven mostly by technical factors. In absence of progress in negotiations, oil may quickly get back to recent highs.

Finally, BoJ Intervened to support the yen. The Bank of Japan had no other options as pressure on the yen would have intensified if USD/JPY remained above 160.

However, the game has just begun. BoJ must push USD/JPY towards January lows near 152 to show it has sufficient firepower to support the yen.

In case the intervention turns out to be a one-time event, USD/JPY will quickly get back to the previous trend, making the task even harder for BoJ.

NASDAQ's first reaction to Fed decision is rather calm, although the index is moving lower. Perhaps, the index will show more reaction to Powell's comments, although Fed Chair's term ends in May.

Perhaps, earnings reports will have a bigger impact on market dynamics today. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will present their quarterly results after market close.

USD/JPY moved above the important 160.00 level ahead of Fed decision. The key question is whether BoJ will intervene to provide support to the Japanese currency.

Yesterday, BoJ left interest rates unchanged amid worries about the impact of the oil rally on the country's economy. Today, oil is up by 7% as traders bet on escalation in the Middle East.

It is not clear whether BoJ has sufficient firepower to protect the yen in current environment. If USD/JPY stays above the 160.00 level after Fed decision, bulls will have a great opportunity to push it above July 2024 highs near the 162.00 level.

USD/JPY was mostly unchanged after BoJ left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. Six BoJ members voted to keep the rate at 0.75%, while three members voted for a hike.

BoJ noted that Japan's economic growth will decelerate due to high oil prices and their impact on global trade.

While BoJ keeps rates unchanged, Japan's bond yields keep moving higher. The yield of 10-year bonds settled near the 2.48% and may soon climb above the psychologically important 2.50% level.

At this point, the market does not believe that BoJ will raise rates, and traders are waiting for Fed decision, which may have a bigger impact on USD/JPY.

NASDAQ tested historic highs as traders remained bullish ahead of key earnings reports and Fed decision.

Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will release their quarterly results this week. Their reports will test the major rally, which happened despite rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

It remains to be seen whether Fed decision will have a major impact on market dynamics as Powell's term as Fed Chair will soon come to an end. Markets are forward-looking, so traders may discount Powell's comments on Fed policy outlook.

NASDAQ tested new highs as traders remained bullish. Strong demand for tech stocks is pushing the index towards historic highs.

Traders have already forgotten about Middle East tensions and high oil prices. Instead, they focus on AI and bet that Fed could be more dovish soon (Powell's term expires May 15).

The rally is so strong that it looks that some short-sellers have been trapped and are forced to liquidate their positions. The technical picture is bullish, and NASDAQ has a good chance to test historic highs in the upcoming trading sessions.

NASDAQ rallied as traders prepared for the second round of negotations between U.S. and Iran and focused on the strong pullback in the oil markets.

The war in Iran is already an event of the past for stock traders. They rush to buy stocks as if U.S. and Iran have signed a peace deal.

The situation remains tense in the physical oil market, but markets are forward-looking and prepare for stabilization in the Middle East. While stocks will remain sensitive to geopolitical news, the focus may shift to the earnings season and performance of AI companies.

NASDAQ gained ground as Israel planned to negotiate with Lebanon next week. Oil prices pulled back as Israel's operation against Hezbollah is a major obstacle on the way to a sustainable ceasefire between U.S. and Iran.

The weak GDP Growth Rate report did not put any pressure on stocks today as geopolitical factors remain the key driver for markets.

Traders are ready to buy AI stocks again, afraid of missing the next leg of the rally. Market sentiment is bullish, but NASDAQ needs to climb above the 25,400 level to continue the move.

NASDAQ rallied as traders rushed to buy tech stocks after U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. WTI oil prices are down by roughly 15%, providing additional support to stocks.

The market will stay driven by geopolitics. Israel continues its operation in Lebanon, while Iran has attacked a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed as Iran wants Israel to stop its operation against Hezbollah.

Traders should be prepared for volatility as it is not clear whether current ceasefire will hold. NASDAQ approaches strong resistance area and may need additional positive catalysts to continue the rebound.