u/TonyLiberty

Bond markets are melting down right now.

The US 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.18%. We have not seen borrowing costs this high in almost 20 years.

At the same time, Japan's 30-year yield just hit 4.17%, the highest in that country's recorded history. And Japan's 10-year broke above 2.80% for the first time, ever.

Two of the world's largest bond markets. Both at historic extremes.

Japan holds roughly $1.1 Trillion in US Treasuries. If Japan starts selling those bonds to stabilize its own market, US yields go even higher.

As US yields rise, the government pays more interest on its $36 Trillion debt. To cover that interest, it borrows more. More borrowing pushes yields even higher. It's a self-feeding loop. And the Government has no real plan to break it.

I think we're entering the most aggressive surge in inflation and yields since the 1970s.

Many businesses only survived the last decade because debt was cheap. With borrowing costs exploding right now, many companies will file for bankruptcy.

This is getting ugly. We're watching the biggest financial shift since 2007.

The medical clinic I've been visiting the last 10 years was bought out by private equity.

They cut costs so aggressively that they could not even keep a full time doctor on staff.

Then they cut the staff. They replaced experienced nurses with cheaper workers.

The place fell apart in under a year.

Labor is the highest cost in any healthcare practice. Cut it, and the margins improve on paper.

It is wild how fast a successful business gets destroyed by this model.

PE acquisitions often use leveraged buyouts — meaning the debt used to buy the practice gets loaded onto the practice itself. It services that debt from operating revenue while also generating investor returns.

Healthcare is a goldmine for private equity. In 2024, private equity completed 1,136 healthcare deals in the US. People get sick no matter what the economy is doing. It's guaranteed cash flow.

The business model is simple. Buy a clinic. Load it up with debt. Cut costs to make the profit margin look amazing. Sell it to someone else in about 5 years.

If the clinic goes bankrupt from all that debt later on? The investors don't care. They already made their money.

Why is this happening? Greed.

Something is breaking in the bond market. Most people haven't noticed yet.

The interest rate on the US 10-Year Note just jumped above 4.59%. We haven't seen these levels in about a year.

Even crazier, the 30-Year Treasury yield hit 5.12%. That's the highest it has been since right before the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

And it's not just the US. In the UK, the 30-year bond yield hit 5.85%. It's the highest level since March 1998.

Kevin Warsh is seen as more hawkish than Powell, meaning he's more likely to raise rates or hold them high to fight inflation. The bond market knows this.

Bonds are the real engine of the global economy. When they break, everything else follows.

The US deficit just hit $955 Billion in 7 months.

That's $3 billion EVERY SINGLE DAY.

And the math gets worse.

We are on track to hit nearly $2 Trillion in new debt this year alone.

Right now, 22% of your taxes go straight to paying interest on government debt.

And the Congressional Budget Office projects that in 10 years, 30% of your taxes will go toward paying interest on government debt.

That's nearly 1 in 3 dollars.

That money does not go to fixing our roads, funding our local schools, or improving healthcare.

And it's only getting worse.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST REVEALED HIS LATEST STOCK TRADES.

He filed new financial reports with the Office of Government Ethics.

On May 8th he told the whole country to 'Go buy Dell.'

The stock shot up 12% that day.

He owned $DELL the whole time.

Some of the other buys include: Intel $INTC, Palantir $PLTR, Sandisk $SNDK, and NVIDIA $NVDA.

Politicians have made public statements that sent prices up or down.

They've sat on committees that set policy for entire industries they invested in.

They've voted on legislation that directly moved stocks they held.

And none of it is technically illegal.

The US dollar lost 30% of its value over the last 6 years.

Think about what that actually means.

$100K in 2018 is equivalent to $70K today.

When the government prints more money, your dollars lose their value.

You pay more for the same things. Groceries. Rent. Gas.

Between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. government printed $6+ trillion into the economy. The Fed kept interest rates near zero for years. It felt like free money.

But there's no such thing as free money.

When you flood the economy with cash, each dollar buys less. More dollars chasing the same goods. Prices rise. Your purchasing power shrinks. It's basic supply and demand.

The worst part? Wages don't keep up.

Here's what you do long-term:

1. S&P 500 Index Fund in your Roth IRA (~10%/year historically, tax-free)

2. Real estate (beats inflation over time)

3. Hard assets & commodities

4. Invest in your skills and income potential

US auto loans have exploded to $1.68 TRILLION. For the first time in history, car debt is bigger than credit card debt.

It now matches the total amount of U.S. student loans.

People are taking 7-10 year car loans just to afford a monthly payment.

The average American now pays $735/month just to own a car. That’s $88,200 over 10 years. On something that LOSES value every single day.

Meanwhile....

Car prices are up 35%+ since 2020 and repossession rates hit a 30-year high last year.

Let that sink in.

The "American Dream" is being sold back to you on high-interest debt.