u/TheJudger7

https://westwaterresources.com/investor/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=19436036

Well.. this was not a disaster, but not a fix either.

cash burn looked more controlled than I expected, and that is a positive. also they did not seem to smash the stock with heavy dilution in Q1, at least not like some feared.

but the core issue is still there.. Kellyton still needs more financing.

so to me the story has not changed that much. the thesis is not broken, but it is not repaired either.

as for Coosa.. I still see it more as long term value than near term catalyst. right now Kellyton is what really matters. if management talks too much about Coosa without giving real clarity on Kellyton funding and commercial progress, I think the market may read it as a distraction more than an accelerator.

so overall.. still alive, still moving, but still stuck on the same key point: funding.

May 13 call is the real test now.. let's see if they actually say something concrete.

not financial advice of course.. do your own research

Westwater Resources, Inc., Investors - Financials - SEC Filings - SEC Filings Details

The new 13G/A looks more like a capital structure reminder than a thesis-breaker.

What it tells us is that Ayrton/Alto/Waqas are reporting 4.8M shares tied to conversion of a convertible note, and they’re now below 5% at 3.71%. To me, that’s not the same thing as “someone just dumped the stock.” It’s a useful reminder that WWR still has convertible overhang, which we already knew was one of the main risks on the equity side.

The much bigger event is the May 13 webcast.

That’s where management needs to answer the questions that actually matter:

• Is Kellyton financing moving forward in a real way?
• Any new commercial progress after the SK On setback?
• How much cash and dilution hit in Q1?
• Is Coosa still long-term optionality, or is it becoming a near-term distraction while Kellyton still needs funding?

My take: the 13G/A is mildly negative for equity quality, but not a game-changing development by itself. May 13 is the real test.

Not financial advice :just trying to separate what is noise from what could actually change the thesis.

Graphite One just released an update on the FAST-41 permitting process for the Graphite Creek project in Alaska.

https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-provides-fast-41-permitting-update-for-graphite-creek-project/

TL;DR: this is a positive update, but it should not be confused with a final permit approval.

The key point is that Graphite Creek remains “in progress” under the federal FAST-41 permitting dashboard, with the current target date for completion still listed as September 29, 2026. That matters because permitting is one of the biggest risk factors for Graphite One. Keeping the project on a visible federal timetable reduces some uncertainty around timing.

FAST-41 does not lower environmental standards or guarantee approval. What it does is coordinate federal agencies, make the process more transparent, and set a public timetable. For a small company trying to build a domestic graphite supply chain in the U.S., that visibility is important.

The bullish read is simple: Graphite Creek has not fallen off schedule, and the project continues to be treated as strategically relevant within the U.S. critical minerals framework.

The cautious read is just as important: this is still not a final permit, not project financing, not construction approval, and not a de-risked mine. The major remaining questions are still permitting outcome, possible environmental review complexity, Alaska execution risk, funding, dilution, and whether the downstream Ohio anode strategy can actually be financed and built.

For me, the biggest thing to monitor now is whether the process stays on the current Environmental Assessment path or whether anything pushes it toward a more complex Environmental Impact Statement. That would be a very different timeline.

Overall, I see this as moderately positive for the permitting thesis, but not a game-changing event by itself. The real catalyst remains progress toward the September 2026 federal permitting milestone, plus any concrete movement on funding, offtake, EXIM/DOE support, and the Ohio AAM facility.

But overall I'm very glad that the CEO keep communications on during this period in which we are patiently waiting

Don't forget you can monitor the FAST-41 for G1 directly from the subreddit - resources panel (direct link)

Not financial advice. Just sharing my current view after digging into recent developments.

Over the past days, Graphite One has dropped to recent lows (~C$1.34).
Two main drivers here:

1) The equity offering (expected)
The company raised ~C$35M issuing ~20M shares at C$1.75 with attached warrants (C$2.25, 36 months).

Pure dilution impact is roughly ~10%, but the market reaction was closer to ~25–30%.
So part of the move is mechanical — the rest is repricing / uncertainty.

2) The USITC decision (unexpected)
The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that Chinese AAM imports are NOT materially injuring a U.S. industry.

That effectively removes the tariff protection angle, at least for now.
This is a meaningful short-term negative for any U.S.-based AAM strategy.

I reached out to IR (Michael from Kinvestor, who specifically deals with G1) to understand their view.

Their response (summarized):

• They acknowledge the ruling is negative in the near term (1–2 years)
• The strategy relies on broader U.S. policy support (DoD, IRA, EXIM)
• They believe long-term domestic supply chain momentum remains intact
• They point to potential ESG / security-driven premium pricing

My takeaway:
This is a shift.
Before the tariff protection was part of the bull case
Now: it’s more about policy support + strategic positioning

Next step:
I’ve registered for the March 26th company event — I’ll share anything meaningful that comes out of it.

my position now is as follow:

Narrative hasn't changed. The fundaments of G1 rely on their connection within the territory, expertise and peculiar advantage on the AAM factory. within 2026 they expect to apply for EXIM and that will be the game changer.. so maybe this drop.. i'll add more

Please, share your views, especially from those modeling the downstream economics.

stay tuned i'll put the link and the summary after the 26th March event

https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-announces-appointment-of-lucille-carter-as-vice-president-community-relations-and-online-marketing-update/

Graphite One’s appointment of Lucille Carter as VP of Community Relations isn’t a technical or financial hire: it’s a permitting-phase hire.

This is important to me.

At this stage, GPH’s main bottleneck isn’t geology (FS is completed) and it isn’t capital markets positioning (they just issued equity n warrants and are positioning for the EXIM loan). The gating factor is regulatory progress and maintaining social license in Alaska.

Lucille Carter’s background aligns precisely with that need.

Here is what i found browsing the net:

She previously served as Senior VP of Regional and Shareholder Services at Bering Strait Native Corporation (BSNC), one of the Alaska Native corporations operating in the region. That role implies:

Deep engagement with local and indigenous stakeholders, experience balancing development with community interests and direct familiarity with regional governance dynamics

She also holds an MBA and a business degree from the University of Alaska, and she grew up in communities near the Graphite Creek deposit (Nome and Teller). That local credibility is not trivial in Alaska permitting.

This is a stakeholder and permitting risk-management hire.

Strategically, that suggests management understands that execution risk now sits more in regulatory and community alignment than in technical feasibility.

In short: this is a defensive, risk-aware appointment consistent with the current phase of the project, not a growth acceleration signal, but a social license stabilization signal. I'm very confident in the timeline and step undertook by G1 management.. Looks like they do the right thing at the right time..

But please if you know more or have a different perspective.. Share your thoughts

https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-announces-listing-of-warrants-2/

G1 Posted a breakdown of the offer in the link above.. I'll sum it up.

Each unit was sold at C$1.75 and included: • 1 share • 1 warrant (C$2.25 strike, 36 months)

If you bought a unit:

Break-even on the share alone = C$1.75

If you exercise, total paid = C$4.00 for 2 shares → avg cost C$2.00

At ~C$1.34, the warrant has no intrinsic value, so it’s pure time premium (likely around C$0.30–0.45 depending on volatility).

Very important: this listing doesn’t add new dilution : that was already known. It just makes warrants tradable separately. It may increase short-term volatility since investors can now sell shares and keep warrants.

The warrant only becomes really interesting if the stock starts moving back toward C$1.70–2.00+.

Not financial advice. Just math.

Graphite One has officially closed the public offering for ~C$35M gross, issuing 20,002,000 Units at C$1.75 per Unit.

here is the link to the news: https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-announces-closing-of-public-offering-for-c35-million/

Each Unit =
• 1 common share
• 1 warrant (C$2.25 strike, 36-month term)

So what did investors really buy?

They paid C$1.75 and received:

• 1 share immediately
• 1 warrant giving them the right to buy another share at C$2.25 within 3 years

If the stock has been trading around C$1.40 in the last couple of days, then the market is effectively implying:

C$1.75 – C$1.40 = ~C$0.35

So investors implicitly paid about C$0.35 per warrant.

That warrant gives them 3 years to buy another share at C$2.25.

If they eventually exercise:

• Total paid for 2 shares = C$1.75 + C$2.25 = C$4.00
• Average cost per share (if exercised) = C$2.00

From the company’s perspective:

• Immediate dilution = ~20M new shares (~10% increase in share count)
• Potential additional dilution only happens if the stock trades above C$2.25 and warrants are exercised
• If all warrants are exercised, that would bring in ~C$45M more cash in the future

So this was not just a straight equity raise. It was equity + a long-dated call option embedded in each Unit.

Short-term pressure is normal after this kind of deal because new shares enter the float and C$1.75 price becomes a psychological reference, as much as 2.25

But let's take the upside! structurally , the company now has ~C$35M gross to advance permitting and AAM development in Ohio.

That’s the clean breakdown.

Curious to hear if others are modeling the warrant value and possible future outcomes differently.

Hello there. Below you may find the link to the article..

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/can-this-american-company-help-claw-back-the-critical-minerals-industry-from-china/

Actually they praise the company effort to build a domestic supply chain, highlighting also the political support obtained both from Alaska and Trump administration.

That said.. Nothing new at least for us, but i appreciate the timing ( yesterday they announced the equity offer) and the spotlight on some G1 focal points

So, as an update to yesterday news, G1 defined the offer. Providing regulatory approvals will be received, here are details

https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-announces-final-terms-of-previously-announced-marketed-equity-offering/

If that's the case I'd highlight a few point.

First, like G1 stated, if EXIM grant will be finalized it will cover 70% of the cost.. Meaning that at least 30% will have to be through equities or other.. So no surprise at all.

Secondly, please verify my math, but straight case scenario leads up to a 10% dilution.. A slightly higher value can be reached if G1 is traded at a higher value, but that will come with more cash inflow of course.

Lastly, i don't second the idea today drop was related to this.. Actually a downtrend was already ongoing from the recent peak, and with scarce volume and values volatility stays high.

As usual, please read the article and make your own mind and feel free to add your angle to the subject.

https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-announces-marketed-equity-offering-up-to-c30-million/

Hello fellow miners.. Here is a news for us.. It really doesn't surprise me actually. Kinda late in my time zone so I'll keep it short and get some in depths tomorrow..

As a quick math the potential dilution stays single digit.. And most important, it's all in the business plan while we wait for the EXIM loan to come alive.

I know the usual maths.. Offering equals dilution equals stock drop.. therefore panick selling.

What i'd say is, if you believe in the company business model, you expected this so don't panick and let's keep our focus on the fundamentals. But of course that's my flavor.. Everyone does his own DD..