u/TheBitcoinClub

https://reddit.com/link/1tbv2wi/video/xvjemi5bov0h1/player

As of May 13, 2026:

• BTC ≈ $81,226
• MA200 ≈ $82,283 (acting as strong resistance)

I ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations for the next 60 days (~July 12, 2026), keeping the price centered around $82k but with realistic volatility (35.8% annualized, based on the last 400 days of actual BTC data).

Results:

• Expected MA200: $78,432
• Most probable range (50% of simulations): $76,650 – $79,880
• Average drop in MA200: -4.7%

Why?
The high prices (~$95k from the post-ATH period at $126k) are rolling out of the 200-day window. Even if BTC stays roughly flat, the MA200 naturally drifts lower.

Key Implication:

• Today → MA200 = heavy psychological resistance
• In 60 days → MA200 becomes a lighter, more distant support (price likely 4-6% above it)

This is classic post-ATH consolidation behavior. The 200 DMA loses “gravitational pull” without needing a big crash — time does the job.

What do you think? Will BTC hold above the declining MA200 or test the $76-78k zone first?

#Bitcoin #BTC #MA200 #CryptoAnalysis

https://preview.redd.it/fsc341i8ra0h1.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=50280dc74e26d465c38699274e3bba500f95b4d0

Its almost there... will BTC cross the 200 moving average?

https://reddit.com/link/1t4d140/video/t3k9hb8p3bzg1/player

1. There are roughly 8.27 billion people on Earth today.

2. Bitcoin, however, was designed with a fixed and immutable supply limit of just 21 million coins.

3. Unlike fiat currencies, no government, central bank or institution can increase that number.

4. If every single Bitcoin that will ever exist were divided equally among the entire global population, each person would receive approximately 0.0025 BTC. That is roughly 250,000 satoshis per person.

5. But the real situation is even more extreme: Blockchain analysis suggests that between 3 and 4 million Bitcoin have already been permanently lost — forgotten wallets, destroyed hard drives, and keys that will never be recovered.

6. This means the actual amount available per person could be significantly lower.

Scarcity is not a slogan in Bitcoin. It is part of the protocol itself. And the world is only beginning to understand what that means.

What do you think will happen?