Built a NAV calculator for VCX (Fundrise Innovation Fund). Sharing it here for critique... please poke holes!
What the calculator does:
The fund's 12/31/25 Schedule of Investments discloses the exact share counts VCX holds in each portfolio company. For example, 357,000 shares of Anthropic, 504,000 shares of Databricks, 308,000 shares of Ramp, 30,000 shares of SpaceX, etc.
For positions held as direct shares, the calculator lets you input a current price-per-share from your preferred source (Hiive, Forge Global, Caplight, Notice all publish secondary prices and they don't always agree). For positions held through SPVs, convertibles, or SAFEs where the underlying share count isn't disclosed, you apply a MOIC multiplier instead.
The output is a marked NAV per VCX share, which you can compare to the current trading price to see the implied premium or discount.
Calculator link: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/d2aaa415-5651-479d-852b-11a28df1a7d6
The data sources I used:
- Position share counts: VCX Schedule of Investments, 12/31/25 (EDGAR)
- VCX shares outstanding: 28,346,610 at listing per TipRanks, with an adjustment for post-listing ATM issuance
- Default 12/31/25 marks: implied from the filing values
- Secondary price defaults: I left them at Fundrise's marks so users start from a neutral baseline
- Continuous issuance estimate (~60K shares/day post-listing): backed out from share count growth since listing on EDGAR
What I'm hoping for from this post:
- Tell me where the methodology is wrong. Specifically:
- Is my ~30.6M shares-outstanding estimate roughly right, or is there a better source?
- Is there a way to mark the OpenAI position cleanly that I'm not seeing? The convertible rights + partnership interest don't disclose underlying share count.
- Tell me your own marks. The calculator is built to be flexible. If you think Anthropic should be marked at $5,000/share or $800/share, run it and post your numbers.
- Tell me how you think about premium-to-NAV for a closed-end fund holding pre-IPO names. There's no clean comp here. DXYZ is the obvious reference but it's structurally different in some ways.
Disclosures:
I'm not neutral on this. I'm long Anthropic via SPVs and direct co-investments, I'm long Fundrise the operating company via the secondary market, and after running this analysis I went short VCX the ticker as a wrapper-price bet. I built the calculator because I wanted to understand my own positioning, then realized it might be useful to other people running their own analysis.
If you think the math says VCX is fairly priced or undervalued, I'd genuinely like to hear that case. The whole point of sharing the tool is to find out where I'm wrong.
Not investment advice. Do your own work.