I am convinced Detriot trades for Crosby
I've done a very deep dive on this. Multiple simulations and also found a very interesting SI article that quoted sources that both Campbell and Holmes were willing to give up two firsts until they news about Arnolds legal issues came up and they stepped back. This was near the end of the combine. I also watched several interviews with the Raiders GM (or Pres?) who was very measured in how they viewed the whole Raven trade and suddenly getting Maxx back. He flat out stated that they would still consider trades (last three weeks). Lastly? #17 is worth a lot to the Raiders to snag a sure thing at WR (or that Ore TE). By the time they get to their second pick all of the best offensive players are gone.
I think this can happen. I wish I could bet it on a prediction market! If it happens I think it will be at pick #17. I would love it and can construct a trade PFF gives a >90% chance and is less than the two #1's