What is your 'very not consensus' take on a player from this year's rookie class that you want to be able to look back on a year from now? (Full disclosure, I also wanted to have an excuse for a Concepion post)
I feel like I have the label the post like this, because if I just wrote what I wanted to, it'd be labeled as 'hot takey' and downvoted. I'd love to hear your thoughts on a specific player or why you think I'm an idiot on KCC.
This is a no-fear of downvote zone to go outside the consensus for predictions that otherwise would be considered group-think heresy - please share yours :)
Mine is this:
I posted about this a while back a before the RP chart came out. But I think KC Concepion has the best chance to be a wr1 asset in this class. To be clear, by that I mean the most upside - but also with a Golden Tate level floor.
*It's certainly possible that Tate or Lemon get more targets and catches year one, but I think KCC has the best skill set to have a shot at being a top-tier WR.
This year I watched more film than I ever have before, weighted heavily towards WRs. I just kept feeling like I did when I saw Nabers a few years ago. I'm not saying he will reach that (perceived) level - but a similar tool-box.
Disclaimer: To be clear, I am very amateurish at this (film watching) - but I do love it. I wanted to try to have my own thoughts - although I will admit sometimes if having your own thoughts is part of the goal, you can become contrarian by accident. But I digress - - annnyway...
Concepion's movement is just jarring. Particularly his take-off and change of direction. He accelerates like when they start off a jet on an aircraft carrier. I just keep seeing Tyreke Hill and Percy Harvin in that respect.
After I posted about Concepion a few months ago, I counted down the days to Matt Harmon's RP profile like I was a kid with an advent calendar waiting for Christmas. I was so excited to see that he scored very well against man/press (which is pretty obvious), he was also 80+ percentile vs zone. I will be honest, two months ago I was saying he should be top 3 - an actual professional like Harmon confirming it just made me think he should be higher. To have someone who has such rare movement like him (in my opinion) to be called the best 3 level separator in the class by Matt Harmon got me irrationally excited.
It seems like the biggest concern about him is his drops. I won't discount that- it's a little worrisome. I've heard people explain it away as 'concentration drops' or 'one-offs'. That doesn't mean they don't exist. But I will say I saw so many adjustments on bad throws where he has to come back into a safety and is fearless. So I guess I'm emboldened by thinking his drops are not due to alligator arms or fear of contact.
I've heard concerns about his yards per route run vs. zone. I don't know enough about football to explain that away. I heard it's due in part to his bizarre deployment in year 2 dragging it down but I don't know. I am a very amateur film watcher but from what I saw he seems to know where to stop in open space.
I really like Carnell Tate and really really like Makai Lemon, but I think Concepion is a rarer talent that fits anywhere. In my opinion a poor man's Malik Nabers, but 8/10 Nabers, not 4/10 Nabers.
To close - He's the youngest receiver (21 years old) in the class. He broke out at a young age. I know it feels like a cop-out - but if you watch his games, it really did seem like his qb left yards on the table either missing him or bringing him back into the defense. It's my opinion, but he moves better than any other wr in the class (speed and agility) and Harmon has him as the best separator.
What is your outside the box opinion on a rookie player in this draft?