u/Remote_Ad_6049

For anyone worried about the price action of $IBRX these past few trading days:
- 4 analysts rate this as a buy or strong buy. All have maintained or raised their price targets. No holds, no sells.
- 50 MA for the 4 hour chart is about to cross over the 200 MA. Last time that happened was January when we saw a massive run-up.
- WeBull has a bullish technical outlook for the short, medium and longterm, with 8 recent bullish short term technical signals
- AUA conference is this weekend, coming off Dr. PSS's recent trip around the world, visiting world renowned labs, meeting with heads of state, and crafting deals yet to be announced to expand Anktiva's market share
- Makary was just forced out
- IB is working on AI automated robots to scale up production of Anktiva and expand into AI medicine

And much, much more. Stay bullish.

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I've seen a lot of discourse about the call options recently. The UAU conference, global expansion news, and a bullish close above $8.50 on Friday could set off some serious price action...

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Worth considering that this is a resubmission and additional data was provided after the previous RTF. I have some hope we'll receive acceptance, but a second RTF would prove disastrous for the near future.

You can check my profile, I have been bullish since 2025 and regularly buy shares. I have posted about the technicals and bullish pennant and upcoming catalysts. I do not think earnings today was a disaster, ImmunityBio has lots of cash, revenue is increasing, they're expanding globally and working on AI medical treatments and US expansion too, and the missed EPS was mostly due to warrants which were exercised because the stock price did so well, and the rest of the increase in expenditures was because the company seized the opportunity to heavily invest in its future.

What concerns me is the technicals, really. There’s also the fact that the share count (edit: I previously said float, which is incorrect, the float is much less) consists of over a billion shares, making it hard to achieve parabolic runs. And IBRX also isn’t profitable, meaning that we are still at risk of dilution, and most runs will result in quiet share offerings to secure more cash for the company. We have attempted to break out of this triangle pattern three times. The first time the letter from the FDA killed our momentum, the second time the stock simply lost steam, and the third time was yesterday, which succeeded in a massive breakout and promptly dropped back below today after earnings was released. In recent weeks, there's been a hard ceiling at around 8.40. It was also made evident today that our sBLA is class 2, which means a review process of up to 6 months.

Again, I am not a bear. I’ve seen what this stock can do, I believe in its mission, and I have invested thousands into it. As of right now, if we don’t get a catalyst, soon, I think we may sink back below $7 to support around 6.90. If we lose support I really worry about where this stock will go, probably below $5. I want to be wrong, but, over the next week and a half, if the earnings call doesn’t announce something grand, the urology conference data presentation doesn’t reveal anything particularly bullish, no AI developments are unveiled, and there’s no trial data released to serve as a positive catalyst, I suspect we will see more near-term lows. This is not to say the long-term outlook is bearish, but the short term certainly is.

Days to cover has shot up from 6 to over 18 in the span of a few weeks, doubling from last week. SI has remained persistently high and crept up slightly to 37%. Some posts claim real short interest is 118% but the math is wrong there, as it assumes all shorts held by the company, insiders, and institutions are illiquid.

On top of this, FDA approval for expanded ANKTIVA use is set for this week, earnings next week, and it is nearing the end of its bullish pennant pattern (around May 21st), plus the MACD is about to reverse.

https://preview.redd.it/pplx42dtz7zg1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e164b91b4a7f3682e81c05443e0c2475ea7fc4b

What I want to see is a drop in and maintenance of persistently low share availability, which would likely be triggered by good news, and I want to see the cost to borrow go back up.

The day before $CAR imploded, I called it on this subreddit. I may be wrong here, but I believe it has room to further implode.

The average analyst PT is $120, with a number of recent downgrades. The fundamentals haven't changed, the company is still in financial hell. They have $28.6 billion debt (41.73k of debt per vehicle, and this will only increase as they are working on shrinking their fleet size), including $6 billion in corporate debt compared to a $5.929 billion market cap. They had a billion in revenue losses last year. They have to do a share offering, or equity, or take out more debt while refinancing their current debt. The most reasonable criticism I have heard of the idea that they'll do a share offering is they reportedly already tried but their stock price is too high and no one wanted to buy in.

Another concern for the bulls here is that this thing seems to have a very fragile technical support. The 200-day MA is at $158. Even a small drop from a share offering could cause a cascade of selling, and if it loses $158 there no telling how far it will fall. Additionally, according to WeBull, as of this moment, less than ONE PERCENT of $CAR shares held by investors are in net positive (0.96%). Most retail investors who are still hodling are hoping for a bounce, if that doesn't materialize, I would suspect many more will bail.

They also have an active lawsuit against them for leaking customer data and they've agreed to settle it (more money down the drain). RSI was so high that it still isn't oversold even after a 75% crash (currently 42). Momentum and MACD on the daily have not yet started reversals either.

There are a few things that could undermine this short thesis. For one, the stock has plunged so low, that any perceived good news could result in a price jump, regardless of how irrational. They could announce layoffs or strategic cost-cutting measures or one good financial datum. You see this with biotech stocks sometimes. They could also beat earnings. Though this year has been slow for travel, and oil prices shot up in February, and consumers are reporting relying more on credit cards and feeling tighter finances due to inflation, tariffs, and other macroeconomic conditions, there were reports that a lot of travelers were foregoing airlines and using rental cars instead.

In any case, we'll see tomorrow: judgment day. Price target: below $130.