u/Regysocial

BTC at a crossroads: Sitting on major trendline support. Bullish continuation or Bearish fakeout?

Current Market Context We are currently respecting a clear uptrend and sitting right on the main diagonal support. We just had a solid liquidity sweep below the line, but price immediately recovered and reclaimed the trendline. With the RSI sitting perfectly at 50, there is plenty of room for a move in either direction. Right now, I'm just sitting on my hands and waiting for clear confirmation. 

The Bullish Scenario For the bullish case to play out, I need to see a strong candle break and close above the immediate levels. That recent dip looks exactly like a liquidity sweep designed to shake people out before fueling the next leg up. 

The Bearish Scenario The bias shifts to bearish if we push up, fail to break the local resistance at 76,244, and then drop to break the main trendline. There is also a very real fakeout scenario to watch out for: we could briefly break that 76,244 resistance just to grab the liquidity above it (trapping early breakout buyers), and then use that downward momentum to slice right through the trendline. 

T1 (Trade Execution Plan) For my actual execution, I'm waiting for a clean retest. Overall, considering the trend, I am leaning more towards a long trade here. If the setup confirms, my take profit target is the 80,000 – 80,500 area. That is a massive psychological magnet, and I expect heavy resistance and a huge pool of liquidity sitting right there. So yeah just waiting rn for some confirmations. What do you guys think? 

i.redd.it
u/Regysocial — 23 hours ago

BTC at a crossroads: Sitting on major trendline support. Bullish continuation or Bearish fakeout?

Current Market Context We are currently respecting a clear uptrend and sitting right on the main diagonal support. We just had a solid liquidity sweep below the line, but price immediately recovered and reclaimed the trendline. With the RSI sitting perfectly at 50, there is plenty of room for a move in either direction. Right now, I'm just sitting on my hands and waiting for clear confirmation. 

The Bullish Scenario For the bullish case to play out, I need to see a strong candle break and close above the immediate levels. That recent dip looks exactly like a liquidity sweep designed to shake people out before fueling the next leg up. 

The Bearish Scenario The bias shifts to bearish if we push up, fail to break the local resistance at 76,244, and then drop to break the main trendline. There is also a very real fakeout scenario to watch out for: we could briefly break that 76,244 resistance just to grab the liquidity above it (trapping early breakout buyers), and then use that downward momentum to slice right through the trendline. 

T1 (Trade Execution Plan) For my actual execution, I'm waiting for a clean retest. Overall, considering the trend, I am leaning more towards a long trade here. If the setup confirms, my take profit target is the 80,000 – 80,500 area. That is a massive psychological magnet, and I expect heavy resistance and a huge pool of liquidity sitting right there. So yeah just waiting rn for some confirmations. What do you guys think? 

u/Regysocial — 23 hours ago

BTC at a crossroads: Sitting on major trendline support. Bullish continuation or Bearish fakeout?

Current Market Context We are currently respecting a clear uptrend and sitting right on the main diagonal support. We just had a solid liquidity sweep below the line, but price immediately recovered and reclaimed the trendline. With the RSI sitting perfectly at 50, there is plenty of room for a move in either direction. Right now, I'm just sitting on my hands and waiting for clear confirmation.

The Bullish Scenario For the bullish case to play out, I need to see a strong candle break and close above the immediate levels. That recent dip looks exactly like a liquidity sweep designed to shake people out before fueling the next leg up.

The Bearish Scenario The bias shifts to bearish if we push up, fail to break the local resistance at 76,244, and then drop to break the main trendline. There is also a very real fakeout scenario to watch out for: we could briefly break that 76,244 resistance just to grab the liquidity above it (trapping early breakout buyers), and then use that downward momentum to slice right through the trendline.

T1 (Trade Execution Plan) For my actual execution, I'm waiting for a clean retest. Overall, considering the trend, I am leaning more towards a long trade here. If the setup confirms, my take profit target is the 80,000 – 80,500 area. That is a massive psychological magnet, and I expect heavy resistance and a huge pool of liquidity sitting right there. So yeah just waiting rn for some confirmations. What do you guys think?

u/Regysocial — 23 hours ago

XAUUSD analysis - what do you think?

Hey guys, was just going through my charts and wanted to share my overall outlook on Gold, plus the specific trade I’m setting up probably for tomorrow morning.

The Macro Outlook Currently, my bias is long towards that upper trendline. Looking at the bigger picture, I feel like Gold needs one more solid cooldown before it can break into new All-Time Highs. So my overall plan is to ride the momentum up to that top boundary. Once we are there, I'll be monitoring the lower timeframes for a BOS to catch a reversal short.

My Trade Prep (T1 Setup) Taking that macro view into account, I'm prepping for my first execution of the week tomorrow morning. I want to get in on that long.

Ideally, I'd love to see a clean bounce off the 200 EMA. But honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a quick liquidity sweep just below the minor trendline to stop out early buyers before the real move happens. Because of that, I'm waiting to see how price reacts at my POI rather than just leaving limit orders. First resistance targets are between 4 966 and 4 996. Also, I will wait for confirmation because there is a probability that price will go for the support at 4643 before continuing long.

Keeping my psychology in check this week: Strictly no FOMO, no over-leveraging, and letting the price come to me.

I'll drop my entry if price hits my POI.

Good luck

u/Regysocial — 2 days ago

XAUUSD analysis - what do you think?

Hey guys, was just going through my charts and wanted to share my overall outlook on Gold, plus the specific trade I’m setting up probably for tomorrow morning.

The Macro Outlook Currently, my bias is long towards that upper trendline. Looking at the bigger picture, I feel like Gold needs one more solid cooldown before it can break into new All-Time Highs. So my overall plan is to ride the momentum up to that top boundary. Once we are there, I'll be monitoring the lower timeframes for a BOS to catch a reversal short.

My Trade Prep (T1 Setup) Taking that macro view into account, I'm prepping for my first execution of the week tomorrow morning. I want to get in on that long.

Ideally, I'd love to see a clean bounce off the 200 EMA. But honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a quick liquidity sweep just below the minor trendline to stop out early buyers before the real move happens. Because of that, I'm waiting to see how price reacts at my POI rather than just leaving limit orders. First resistance targets are between 4 966 and 4 996. Also, I will wait for confirmation because there is a probability that price will go for the support at 4643 before continuing long.

Keeping my psychology in check this week: Strictly no FOMO, no over-leveraging, and letting the price come to me.

I'll drop my entry if price hits my POI.

Good luck

u/Regysocial — 2 days ago