I start with an analysis overview of the chart. I refer to two types of support: horizontal support and MA support. When I see the current price break the MA60 line, I check the Analyst Ratings provided by professionals. Then, I ask AI to help evaluate the counter deeper. If everything looks good, then I buy the share. Currently floating at 9.44%. 😉
TL;DR: down 5% today but bounced off lows. satellite got sent to wrong orbit. ya cant make this up.
so uh... ASTS again. down 5% to $81 but we were down like 15% in premarket. so... could be worse? lol
anyway... chart looks rough ngl.
we're sitting at $81. Bollinger mid-band at $88.67, lower band at $76.07. we basically kissed the lower band today ($73.50 low) and bounced. volume was massive – 39.86M. thats panic selling + dip buyers fighting it out.
resistance above at $88–89 (mid-band area), then $101. support below at $76 (lower band). if we lose $76... idk man chart gets real ugly real fast.
key levels to watch – if we hold $80 and reclaim $85, maybe we consolidate. but if we break $76, next stop is like... $65? $60? who knows.
DYOR...
TSLA to report on Wednesday post-market. Options data signals as followed.
Volatility & Pricing
The implied move of ±5.62% ($370–$415 range) looks stingy against historical data. Scanning the past 12 earnings, TSLA's actual realized move has repeatedly blown through the implied range.(pic 1)
IV Rank 11, IV Pctl 21% — options are historically cheap. Yet TSLA's last 12 earnings averaged ±8–9% actual move vs only ±5.62% priced today. Market is underpricing this catalyst by ~50%. Zero IV crush premium to harvest. Edge belongs to options buyers. (pic 2)
Key Levels - The $400
- $373.69 — Gamma Flip. Below here, moves accelerate.
- $400 — Put Wall AND Call Wall at the same strike. Massive pin gravity pre-earnings.
- $400+ break — triggers dealer short-covering → potential Gamma Squeeze to $410–420.
With stock sitting in positive gamma territory ($392.50 > $373.69 flip), dealers are currently in stabilizing mode: they buy dips, sell rips. Pre-earnings, this means expect choppy, contained action with a drift toward the $400 gravitational center.
(pic 3)
Smart Money Read
- Volume PCR 0.73 / OI PCR 0.72: Both firmly call-heavy. Not frothy euphoria, but a consistent, deliberate tilt toward
upside exposure. No panic hedging visible.
(pic 4)
The unusual options activity : pic 5
This is a LEAPS bull call spread: long $650 / short $660, spending ~$0.63M net for 6,000 contracts with 423 days to expiration. The strikes are 65–68% OTM from current price. This is NOT an earnings trade. This is an institution taking a defined-risk, maximum-leverage bet on a Tesla upside over the next 14 months.
Options Strategy
Strategy 1: Long ATM Straddle — For Volatility Bulls
Structure: Buy ATM Put + But ATM Call, expiring this week
Entry rationale: With IV Rank at 11 and implied move only ±5.62%, you're buying volatility near its cheapest point in a year heading into a historically wild catalyst. You need TSLA to move ~6%+ in either direction to profit — historically, that threshold has been cleared the majority of the time. You are not fighting IV crush; there is barely a crush premium to crush. This is a pure gamma bet, buying cheap optionality on a stock that has a documented habit of exceeding its implied range.
(pic 6)
TL;DR: down 2% today after a 15% bounce last week. earnings tomorrow. robotaxi hype vs reality. sitting right at resistance.
we're at $392.50, down a bit today. but last week? up 15% – broke that 8-week losing streak. feels good right?
whats the narrative rn? deliveries were meh. profit still squeezed. but everyone's focused on robotaxi timelines + FSD updates + Cybercab production. basically "trust us bro we got this" energy.
chart wise... Bollinger mid-band at $369, upper band at $404.
we're sitting at $392 – thats like... knocking on the upper door. resistance above at $404–406 (todays high area).
support below at $388 (todays low) then $369 (mid-band).
key levels to watch: if we clear $406 post-earnings, maybe we run to $420–430. but if we lose $388, next stop is $369 and that could get ugly.
PS：PIC 2 is easiest to view on moomoo desktop app – web version doesn't have it.
DYOR😏
TL;DR: up almost 5% again. new ATH. momentum is hot but dont chase into resistance.
MRVL just did that thing where u wake up and ur stock is up another 5%.
closed at $139.69. new all-time high. not "52-week high" but like... ever. in history. lol
what happened? google teamed up with them. memory processing units + new TPUs. basically theyre tryna take a bite out of NVDA's lunch.
and the market likes it. obviously.
whats interesting: turnover % at 3% – not insane flipping energy. this is the 2nd day of big green candles. RSI probs in the 70s – getting warm but not overheating yet.
key levels:
bottom line: MRVL has legit momentum + a real narrative. but i'll wait for a dip...
TL;DR: down 6% on bad news. structure is broken for now. D
ASTS just took a fat L.
down almost 6% to $85.53. volume was chunky (20M). someone was dumping.
what happened? insider selling + satellite delays. classic "sell the news but also sell the hope" energy lmao
whats actually worrying:
momentum is... bad. real bad. RSI probably heading toward 40–45. not oversold yet.
key level: if we lose $84 (todays low), next stop is $77. if we hold $84 and reclaim $90... maybe we live to fight another day.
bottom line: ASTS is in "trust me bro" territory rn. insider selling+delays ...im watching from the sidelines.
TL;DR: uptrend alive but hitting a ceiling. not fomoing up here. wait for dip like a good lil soldier.
ok so...
MSFT just printed a fat weekly green candle. closed $420.26. up like 13% from the lows. not bad for a boomer stock lmao
but heres the thing...
we're literally sitting at the Bollinger mid-band ($426.61). thats like... resistance-ish. not a hard no but definitely a "lets see if u can walk thru this door" moment.
support below? $371–373 area. thats where the last weekly bounce happened. clean.
narrative rn: AI capex dont care about ur macro fears. NVDA leads, MSFT follows. width sucks but mega caps keep grinding. classic "hate the rally but cant fight it" energy.
key level to lose sleep over: $400 on weekly close. below that = bad vibes. above $430 = maybe we run to $450.
what id actually do (not advice obvi)
bottom line: MSFT is that reliable friend who always shows up. boring but wont ruin ur life. i'll wait for a pullback.
TL;DR: Trend strong but stretched af. Don't let FOMO cook u. Wait for entry.
AMD just did something stupid.
12 green dailies in a row. like... back to back to back. +41% in less than 3 weeks.
last time this happened? 2005. i was literally on dial-up internet lmao
anyway...
we're sitting at $278 rn. resistance is $278–285 – so yeah we're basically knocking on the door. support below at $261–264 then $240–245.
heres the funny part – price is already ABOVE the Bollinger upper band ($268). thats the market's way of saying "we extended, bro" in statistical language.
momentum wise... volume solid (64.85M) but thursday had some nasty intraday chop ngl. RSI probs like 85–90. AMD historically gets shaky here. like... shaky shaky.
FOMO = peaking. u know what comes next right? yeah.
key level: lose $270 (thats the 5-day) and algos start dumpin. not maybe. they WILL dump.
what id do (not advice obvi):
The Setup:
TSM just dropped Q1 earnings that made even the most jaded tech bulls drool — net profit up 58% YoY, gross margin hitting a mind-melting 66.2%, and capex at $11.1B. HPC (AI-driven demand) now makes up over half their revenue, and 3nm/5nm advanced nodes are 74% of sales. Everyone was bracing for geopolitical drama to tank demand… but nope. TSM said "hold my boba tea" and crushed it.
The Chart Vibes (Daily):
Price is sitting pretty at $375, still up 89% from its 2025 lows. Recent pullback after hitting resistance near $390 — classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" action post-earnings? BOLL bands squeezing, volume dipping. Chop city incoming before the next big move.
If $360 breaks, we might retest $340 support. If $390 cracks, it's moon ticket territory.
Scenarios:
- 🔴 Red (Dump) - 30%: If AI hype fades or geopolitical drama spikes (Taiwan tensions, US export bans), TSM could dump to $320-340. Volume dries up and we break below the daily EMA-21.
- 🟡 Yellow (Chop) - 40%: Price consolidates between $360-390 as the market digests gains. AI demand stays strong, but valuation concerns cap upside.
- 🟢 Green (Moon) - 30%: If HPC demand stays insane and 2nm ramps smoothly, $435 breaks and it's "to the moon" for a retest of $500.
My 2 Cents:
I'm cautiously optimistic but not chasing here. The earnings beat was priced in, and the post-earnings lull feels like a trap. If you're already holding, trail stops. If not, wait for a pullback to $340 or a breakout above $390. NFA...DYOR😏