u/ParsnipOwn8910

Hey everyone, I’m a new investor trying to build a portfolio for maximum long-term returns.

Right now, I’m looking at a 50/50 split of TQQQ and RSBT. My reasoning is that QQQ’s historical "sweet spot" for leverage is usually between 1.5x and 2x, and this combo puts me right at 1.5x QQQ exposure while adding 50% Managed Futures (Trend) and 50% Bonds on top.

However, I have a few concerns:

1. Leverage Decay & Returns: If QQQ’s future returns drop, the optimal leverage ratio might fall well below 1.5x, making this setup less efficient.
2. RSBT Issues: It’s a relatively new fund with thin daily volume. When I tried backtesting its components, the performance didn't really seem to match the "50% Bonds / 50% Trend" promise.

What’s your take on this combo? And if you’re purely chasing the highest possible CAGR—completely ignoring volatility and drawdowns—what would your ultimate portfolio look like?

I've been obsessed with backtesting lately and I think I found a setup that actually solves the drawdown problem without killing the gains. I'm still a beginner at this, but every time I run the numbers, this portfolio crushes it.

Here is the breakdown:

25% TQQQ 60% KMLM 15% TMF

The logic is pretty straightforward. TQQQ is there for the raw power, and KMLM is the heavy hitter for crisis alpha. With 60% in managed futures, the idea is to have a huge buffer against volatility.

The backtests show a massive CAGR compared to just holding QQQ, but the max drawdown is actually lower. It seems like a much better way to get leverage without the typical 70-80% crashes.

https://preview.redd.it/j5j8twyq810h1.png?width=2444&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ffd066980ac09b814e9574b4bd16b2320e51ece