From 2000 users to almost none: are handcrafted apps getting buried?
Two years ago, my friend and I launched a football prediction pool for the Euros with a twist. In a lot of pools, you can keep predicting boring scores like 1-0 and do surprisingly well.
So we built our own system to make it more interesting: correct predictions would score points based on how unlikely they were. A predictable result would be worth less, while correctly calling a surprise scoreline would earn more. We used team ELO ratings and statistical models to estimate score probabilities, then based the scoring on those odds.
At first it was just for our own friend group, but when we made it public for the Euros 2024, it actually took off more than we expected. We ended up with around 2,000 users, which felt huge for a small side project built mainly for fun.
That momentum made us think we were onto something. So this year we went further: we relaunched under a new name, Goalguessers.com, and even built both Android and iPhone apps to make it feel like a proper product instead of a one-off tournament tool.
But now the opposite is happening. Two years ago 2,000 people joined. This time, almost nobody is. Is the internet so flooded with AI products now that nobody notices handcrafted apps?