BTC is back testing the level that defined the entire bull run. This is the most important week in months.
During the entire 2023-2024 bull run, the weekly 20 SMA was bulletproof support. Every time price dipped toward it, buyers showed up. It held through every correction, every FUD cycle, every macro scare.
Then in 2026 we lost it. And the whole structure broke down.
Now for the first time in months we’re back testing it from below. The 20 SMA is sitting at ~$84.7K and price is pushing up toward it at $76.6K. That gap is the next meaningful test.
What makes this interesting is the context around it. The S&P just pole vaulted back toward ATH territory after everyone was calling for a prolonged crash. Spot demand for BTC has been skyrocketing since February, according to the flows. Goldman Sachs just filed for a spot BTC ETF. Charles Schwab is launching BTC and ETH trading. Saylor is buying again.
The weekly RSI was in the low 30s a few weeks ago, same levels as the 2022 bottom. It’s now at 45 and rising.
I’ve been DCAing through this whole dump, mostly through nexo since that’s where I already had stuff sitting and I’m seeing two scenarios from here:
- Either we reclaim the 20 SMA and the narrative flips completely,
- Or we get rejected and the chop continues.
But the setup going into this week looks more constructive than anything we’ve seen since the top.
Anyone else adding here or waiting for the SMA reclaim first?