ASTS swing setup I'm watching (K-line levels, RSI, and why I'm waiting until after earnings)
ASTS swing setup I'm watching — K-line levels, RSI, and why I'm waiting until after earnings
TL;DR: Watching a swing entry in the $73–76 zone, stop $61.50, target $105–109. RSI approaching oversold on the daily. Earnings tomorrow (May 11) are a wildcard — sizing in at half position until we see the number.
Been doing my chart work in Moomoo and figured I'd share the setup I'm watching. I'm a swing trader — 1 to 3 week holds — not a long-term investor, so take this with that lens.
The technical picture: ASTS pulled back from the $129.89 ATH (Jan 30) and has been grinding lower since. On the weekly K-line I have horizontal support drawn at $73 — that's a consolidation zone from mid-2025 that held before the big breakout. On the daily, RSI (14) is hovering in the 33–38 range, approaching levels where ASTS has historically bounced. The 10 EMA is below the 50 EMA, so this is purely a counter-trend swing, not a trend-following entry.
4H trigger I'm watching: A bullish engulfing candle above $73 on volume, or a clean break of the descending wedge that's been forming since early March. MACD crossover on the 4H is my confirmation before adding size.
Entry zone: $73–76 | Stop: $61.50 | Target: $105–109
The catalyst context: BlueBird 7 failure (April 19) is what accelerated this leg down. Analysts say limited financial impact but it spooked sentiment. On the other side: FCC approval for the expanded constellation came through, and Q1 revenue last quarter was $54.3M vs $41.8M estimated — a big beat. If tomorrow's earnings show the same revenue momentum, that's the move back toward $100+. Options are pricing a ~20% swing either way, so I'm not going full size before the number.
Short interest is sitting at ~24.8% — any positive catalyst could add fuel via short covering.
Sharing my chart screenshots in the comments. Curious if anyone else is watching similar levels or has a different read on the 4H structure.
Not financial advice. High-vol, pre-profitability name — manage your size accordingly.
