u/NeverGoneTooFar

The eBay deal is dilutive below $29, neutral around $32, and accretive above $32. We need to understand this before we vote on creating 2.5 billion new authorized shares at the annual meeting in late June/July. Because here is the cold hard truth: if we vote yes while GME is sitting at $22, we are voting to hand over more than a billion new shares to eBay shareholders, diluting ourselves into a minority position in our own company. RC gets his deal either way. eBay's $2.7 billion annual EBITDA alone clears his first compensation tranche within a year of close regardless of what GME trades at. We are the ones who lose at $22. Not him.

Here is the math. Cohen needs to hand over roughly $28 billion worth of GME shares to eBay shareholders as the equity portion of the deal. At $22 that is 1.27 billion new shares — existing holders drop to owning roughly 26% of the combined entity. At $32 that is 875 million new shares — we own roughly 34%. That difference is not trivial. We are talking about our ownership stake in a combined company that includes eBay, which is currently valued at $55 billion on its own. The higher GME is when those shares are issued, the more of that $55 billion we keep for ourselves. Below $29 we are giving eBay shareholders a better deal than we are getting. We are essentially funding our own dilution.

So here is the position we are in right now. RC has filed a preliminary proxy asking us to approve 2.5 billion authorized shares. The annual meeting is late June/July. The warrant expiration is October 30. The CTB fee tripled in a single update last week. 96% of the top 25 largest trades are happening in dark pools. The monthly candle just closed inside the Ichimoku Cloud for the first time since the 2021 squeeze. Japan intervened in currency markets. The 30-year Treasury is above 5%. Private credit funds are gating redemptions. S3 Partners published a note last week saying GME options are mispriced and a squeeze is coming. Every macro and technical signal is pointing at this stock right now simultaneously — and the price is $22.

I am not saying vote no. I am saying the price needs to reflect the value of what we are being asked to approve before we approve it. If RC wants 2.5 billion authorized shares to execute a $56 billion acquisition, the stock price needs to show us that the deal works in our favor first. That means $32 minimum before the vote. Below that we are turkeys voting for Thanksgiving.

Let's talk about today's price action because something important happened and it's not getting enough attention.

The Timeline

GME closes up +6.33% at $26.53 during regular market hours. The eBay news breaks via WSJ AFTER market close. GME then adds another +4.07% after hours on the eBay leak.

The bigger move happened before anyone publicly knew about eBay. Why?

"It must be insider trading" — actually, probably not

Here's the problem with that theory. If someone knew GME was about to acquire eBay, a rational actor buys both stocks. The acquisition target (eBay) historically pops 20-40% on deal announcements — that's the easy money.

But eBay was flat all day. It only moved after the WSJ leak after hours.

No sophisticated insider leaves that money on the table. The asymmetry — GME up during hours, eBay completely flat until after hours — actually argues against insider trading. Anyone with real inside knowledge would have loaded eBay calls too. They didn't.

So what actually caused the 6% move?

This is where it gets interesting.

Several days ago a post circulated identifying May 1 as a convergence date for two independent FTD and settlement obligations:

• T+105 of Dec 4, 2025 — amplified LCM convergence echo
• T+1575 of Apr 16, 2020 — 5-6 year terminal boundary on 1.28M FTDs

These aren't vibes. FTD settlement obligations are real regulatory mechanics with hard deadlines. When institutions are forced to locate and buy real shares on a specific date, that creates real buy pressure regardless of any news catalyst.

The Options Data

Today's May 1 expiry options chain showed 78,450 ITM call contracts at close — that's 7.85 million shares. Max pain was $24.00 and GME closed at $26.53, finishing 10.54% above max pain on an expiration Friday.

Important distinction: those 78,450 ITM calls were the result of the move, not the cause. But the gamma ramp was already loaded earlier in the week through OTM calls at $24-25 strikes. As price nudged up from settlement buying, those calls started gaining delta. Market makers hedged by buying shares. That pushed price higher. Which triggered more hedging. A self-reinforcing loop that only needed a small initial spark.

That spark was the settlement obligation. Not eBay.

Why this matters going into next week

The same post that predicted May 1 pressure identified May 4-8 as the highest density week — five concurrent convergence events arriving simultaneously.

The options chain confirms the mechanical pressure is already loaded:

• May 8 expiry: 33,891 ITM calls = 3.38 million shares of forced MM hedging
• May 15 expiry: 49,824 ITM calls = 4.98 million shares — and May 13, 14, and 15 are all flagged as additional echo dates in that same post

This pressure exists completely independently of whatever happens with the eBay story. It doesn't need good news. It doesn't need Reddit attention. It just needs price to hold above $24.

One More Thing

GME just triggered a bullish MACD crossover on the monthly chart for the first time in 2 years. Monthly signals are slow and rare. They don't reverse in a week. This isn't a day trader signal — it's a long term momentum shift.

The Bottom Line

A post predicted specific mechanical pressure on May 1 before anyone knew about eBay. That prediction was correct. GME ran 6% during market hours with no news to explain it — exactly when the FTD thesis said pressure would arrive.

That's not numerology. That's a mechanical thesis being validated in real time.

May 4-8 is next. Five convergence events.

33,891 ITM calls already loaded for May 8 expiry. The eBay story is now a completely separate fundamental catalyst sitting on top of mechanics that were already in motion.

Two independent engines firing at the same time.

🩳💀