The latest Silver move is not a surprise. The criminal COMEX Riggers had nowhere else to go to get out of their shorts so now they are letting the price rise to try and get more weak hands in. Their problem is that too many people have LEFT the COMEX for their game to work for more than a few days. They're gonna have to go well above the last All Time High to get the sheeple in and that's PAINFUL!

The Structural Breakout: Decades of Stored Energy Released

Oliver's MSA framework has long highlighted silver's extreme undervaluation relative to gold and the multi-decade compression of its price structure. Once that long-term range was decisively broken to the upside in late 2025 and early 2026, the market entered what he describes as a new price reality. This is not a typical cyclical bull market. It is the kind of secular shift seen only a handful of times in silver's history—moves that do not unfold gradually but accelerate once the structural ceiling is shattered.

The early 2026 parabolic spike to $121.64 represented the initial explosive thrust out of that range. Oliver has repeatedly emphasized that such initial surges are not the end of the move but the ignition point. The subsequent correction, while sharp in percentage terms, never violated the critical long-term momentum supports that define the new bull structure. In his recent commentary, Oliver explicitly framed this period as a necessary "midpoint shakeout"—a healthy purge rather than a trend reversal.

…

The bear trap has sprung. The healthy recovery is underway. The quantum leap he has been forecasting may now be shifting from prediction to unfolding reality.

Silver market participants would be wise to monitor momentum closely in the weeks ahead. The setup Oliver has described for months is aligning in real time, and the current price action offers compelling evidence that the next major leg higher is gathering force.

A material excise hike on precious metals.

• The government announced a rise in the excise duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15%, while raising the duty on platinum from 6.4% to 15.4%.
• The adjustment hits gold bar and coin as well as dore and findings.
• The stated objective of the duty adjustment is to curb gold imports and conserve foreign exchange.

My view

This policy corrodes PM Modi’s government’s efforts to improve transparency and efficiency, and to stamp-out corruption and illicit activity. It will encourage *‘black gold’*flows, and it will lower faith in the Indian financial system, arguably, encouraging greater desire to hold gold (and silver).

This policy will do little-to-nothing to assist India in its balance of payments management and may in fact signal to Indian investors to increase hedges/buy foreign currency assets.

Within the scheme of the gold market, it will do little-to-nothing to impact the gold price, but it will hamper the development of the Indian financial gold market, including gold-backed ETF’s, encouraging Indians to go back to purchasing physical jewelry and bar. Prior to this, I had been optimistic (HERE).

• The rally in gold and silver could resume if a U.S.-Iran peace settlement is reached, market watchers told CNBC.
• During the conflict, gold’s moves were muted, trading in opposite directions to moves in the oil price and U.S. dollar.
• But strategists expect the bull market in gold and silver to resume this year, as driving forces come back into play.

Monday’s rally was fueled largely by increasing investor optimism in silver, Bloomberg reported, citing analysts at TD Securities, who said investors that had waited on the sidelines in recent weeks increased silver buying on Monday while the price’s upward trend also inspired buying from followers.

Other analysts suggested additional factors include President Donald Trump’s visit later this week to China and deadlocked peace talksbetween the United States and Iran.

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Could Silver’s Record Highs Return?

The price of silver surged throughout 2025 and early 2026 to an all-time high price above $120, buoyed by factors including international tensions, federal interest rate cuts, tariffs and increased demand for silver from technological industries. Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC last week he expects silver’s rally to return and predicts both gold and silver will “reach new all-time highs in the not too distant future, potentially this year.” He said the value of both metals became more volatile throughout the war in Iran over fears that inflation would cause interest rates to rise, but aside from war-related pressures, the factors that caused gold and silver’s prices to surge last year “are still very much in place.” “As the fog of war lifts, investors will come back into the market for gold and silver,” Gijsels said. Christopher Romano, a commodities analyst for Reuters, published an analysis of silver’s latest price moves on Monday and said the metal is “on the road to recovery” after a few volatile months, saying silver has broken through downward trends and has “secured a foothold in a higher range” and can “increase market expectations that it could climb to $90.”

MotherSilverApe: I left out all of the fear, uncertainty, dreadful, fearmongering parts. If you wish to read them, link to the article on the link provided.

July Silver futures closed higher for a 6th straight session, extending an 18.2% rally since early May amid tightening global supply dynamics. The Silver Institute projects 2026 will mark the 6th consecutive annual supply deficit, estimated at 46 to 47 million ounces. With 70% of global mine output derived as a byproduct of other metals, supply remains highly inelastic. Concurrently, industrial applications like solar panels and electric vehicles account for 60% of annual demand. Supply chain pressures are intensifying as China implements new export licensing requirements, elevating silver to a strategic material status. This limits the flow of Chinese refined silver to Western markets, fundamentally shifting global pricing leverage.

(Bold font added by MotherSilverApe.)

India has more than doubled import duties on gold and silver to 15%, aiming to narrow its trade deficit and support the rupee, but industry officials warn the move risks reviving smuggling networks. 

Summary:

• India raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, comprising a 10% basic customs duty and a 5% agriculture infrastructure levy, according to government orders issued Wednesday
• The move is aimed at curbing overseas purchases of precious metals and reducing pressure on India's foreign exchange reserves and trade deficit, per Reuters
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to refrain from buying gold for one year to help protect the country's foreign exchange position, according to Reuters
• Industry officials warned the higher duties risk reigniting smuggling activity that had subsided following a tariff reduction in mid-2024, per Reuters citing trade sources
• Indian gold ETF inflows surged 186% year-on-year in the March quarter to a record 20 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council
• April gold imports fell to a near 30-year low after India began levying a 3% integrated goods and services tax on bullion imports, prompting banks to temporarily halt purchases, per Reuters.

Silver (XAG/USD) price steadies on Tuesday following Monday’s advance of over 7%. At the time of writing, XAG/USD gains 0.69% and trades at $86.58 after bouncing off daily lows of $83.05.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, XAG/USD shifted from neutral to neutral-upwards after clearing a key resistance trendline drawn from around March’s 2 highs, which passes at around $77.00.

Link to source: https://x.com/ArmstrongEcon/status/2054306162632163494?s=20

Not long now before the COMEX just shuts down and can no longer deliver physical silver. Then the shi*t hits the FAN!

Silver prices have struggled since tumbling dramatically in January and then slumping again at the start of the Iran war, but technical analysis suggests they might be on the mend.

Silver has stabilized since its tailspin took it to a three-month low of US$60.94 per ounce in March - down about 50 per cent from its all-time high of $121.64 struck on Jan. 29.

Over the last six weeks, silver has risen back above two key technical analysis levels, called downtrend lines. Downtrend lines are diagonal lines connecting highs and are used to define a trend. Rising above a downtrend line indicates weakening of a downward trend.

The most recent break of a downtrend line occurred on Wednesday and was part of a three-day surge that pushed silver up almost to April’s high of $83.04. Past highs and lows are significant milestones in technical analysis - particularly monthly - and the $82 to $83 area has been a stopping point for silver in recent months.

Surpassing the April peak on a sustainable basis would indicate that silver has secured a foothold in a higher range and increase market expectations that it could climb to $90, which is considered an important psychological level since it is a big round number, and then possibly to the March high of $96.38.

Breaking above the April high would also end the string of lower highs that has characterized the price trend in silver since the January tumble. Lower highs are considered a negative trend in technical analysis.

However, if silver fails to surpass April’s peak, it would reinforce the trend of lower highs and could lead market participants to expect more losses, particularly if it were to fall below the area around $70.00 to $71.00.

"THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST BOLLINGER BAND BREAKOUTS THAT I'VE SEEN IN 10 YEARS" - Vince Lanci