u/Maximum-Lack8642

After the coin toss these are the odds of each pick. The Bucks swap meaningfully reduces the chance of the pick landing anywhere below 8 to ~10% while significantly raising the chance of jumping to the top 4 compared with a typical #7 pick.

I’m curious to see what y’all would do with the pick depending on where it lands. If it were up to me, I’d pick whoever is there if we get to 1,2,3 of Peterson, Dybantsa, Boozer.

#4 is complicated but I’d try trading back to 5, 6 or 7 since a lot of teams could be eager for Caleb Wilson as he’s a clear tier above the guards in terms of potential but he is such an awful fit here.

If it doesn’t jump, I’d rank the 5-9 guards Kingston Flemings, Keaton Wagler, Mikel Brown Jr., Braydon Burries, Darrius Acuff in terms of where I’d draft them. Trading up to 6 using the Cavs pick is something I’d highly consider if it ends up worst reasonable case scenario at 9.

Dyson is by far our best defender and Brunson is by far their leading scorer so Dyson’s primary defensive assignment will most likely be on him for this series. I think if that’s what they default to, it’ll be a mistake.

First, Brunson draws more fouls than just about anyone in the NBA and this will be even worse in a playoff setting with the refs desperately trying to get the Knicks/Celtics matchup “everyone” is hoping for. Dyson can be a very aggressive defender going for steals and putting maximal pressure on his opponent. In the last game against the Knicks Dyson fouled out before the end of the 4th which would be a huge problem in a close game. He is a key piece on both offense and defense and losing him severely staggers both of these especially without a good defensive guard who can come in off the bench. Keeping him elsewhere on defense can give the Hawks the option of switching him to playing aggressively on Brunson for the last 5-10 minutes of the game if he’s only sitting on 3 or fewer fouls leading up to it.

Second, the rest of the team benefits much more from having him somewhere else. Dyson and NAW are both great defenders that give us a defensive advantage in the guard spot but a glaring weakness is going to be defending against bigger guys. Offensively, the weakest part of the Knicks lineup is their wings so ideally one of the best Hawk defenders is on Brunson and the other is helping the forward/big defense. Dyson has shown himself to be able to handle large opponents and that’ll be needed this postseason.

Since the Hawks center rotation is already pretty weak and the Knicks have 2 starting level centers, the defensive lineup looks impossible in the minutes OO sits or when they run KAT at the 4 (which his spacing allows). Moving Dyson there allows the rest of the roster to adequately defend their threats while keeping a strong defender in NAW on their top guard instead of one of on one of their weaker wing players. This also helps if the Hawks want to play Mo at backup center since he’ll be on a much smaller player (which works better for him as he is an elite defender but a bit small to defend centers). Dyson is also a great rebounder so having him on KAT could help us not lose as many offensive rebounds and using him to punish the less talented guardlike duties they’ll be giving their 2nd player and could lead to opportunities in blocking the passing lane limiting Brunson’s options and punishing bad ball handling.

Third: game planning. One huge aspect of the playoffs is having a large turnaround to prepare to play 1 singular team. Knicks are almost certainly going to be writing plays for and practicing for Brunson to be guarded by Dyson which he has been for the most part in the past. I’d expect them to be trying to run a lot of P&R with KAT and trying to figure out how to switch Brunson’s defender to create opportunities. There is something to be said about the advantage not playing the obvious matchups.

Combined Bucks/Pelicans odds of each pick.

Dyson shouldn’t be (primarily) guarding Brunson, he should be guarding KAT