Are we overestimating the 20 year hand off? Why moonbreon might be the next beanie baby
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I know there are going to be mixed opinions on this. I would like to hear what you have to say as a hobbyist, investor, or generalist.
I took a step back from my Collectr app and realized we’re treating modern cardboard like it’s a blue-chip stock, but the math just doesn't add up for the long haul. I sold my PSA 10 Moonbreon for $3.5k. My grail. My partner and I opened like 4 boxes of evolving skies when the set came out. I bought it outright for $700, so the 5x return is great, but it was a "cold shower" moment. I looked at the population report and realized there are thousands of these things. Remember the guy who stole them out of the warehouse? Contrast that with a card I actually regret selling: a **1st Edition Shining Steelix PSA 10**.
My steelix sold for about 2.5k at the time, and I believe it had a population of 181. A guy at the card show once told me that the Steelix would end up on "Antiques Roadshow" one day. Modern "grails" like the Moonbreon aren't rare, they’re just expensive right now. We’re mass producing Gem Mint commodities that go straight from the pack into a slab. Look at the steamers on whatnot with a basement full of slabs stacked up.
Here is the reality check: For a Moonbreon to stay at $5000, some 20-30 year old in the year 2046 has to decide that a slab is worth more than a reliable used car. If we think long term, not just in the hobby, but in terms of global de-dollarization and wealth inequality. A kid who grew up not allowed to touch these cards and play with them because they are an "investment" is likely to spend their money elsewhere, a car, a down payment.
**The PSA Antitrust Lawsuit**
Couple this with the PSA antitrust lawsuit, that could lead to devaluing the very labels that we are paying a premium for. PSA parent company *Collectors* has a 72–80% monopoly after acquiring SGC and Beckett. Filed by Michael Rasmussen in California, the suit names Collectors, PSA, SGC, and BGS as defendants, accusing them of forming an illegal monopoly.
**The Beanie Baby Warning**
Beanie Babies died because they stopped being toys and started being "assets." When the only people buying are other "investors" hoping for a flip, you’re in a bubble. Ty Warner, the creator of Beanie Babies, invented the retirement mechanic. By pulling a plush from shelves suddenly, he created an illusion that they were valuable.
One expert, Harry Rinker, noted that parents told their kids, *"Don't touch them, they're valuable."* This is the "Beanie Baby Kiss of Death." If a child never plays with it, they never form an emotional bond. **Twenty years later, that child doesn't want to buy their parents' dust-collecting "investment."**
I’ve been in the hobby since I was a kid, grew up playing the games on my gameboy. I stopped buying packs in 2021. I switched to singles and used PSA and then GameStop’s partnered submission service to grade my own, but I’ve officially exited my positions. I’d rather have the cash in hand during this economy rather than a collectible that depends on a "greater fool" buying it from me in 10 years.
Am I the only one seeing the "Junk Slab" writing on the wall, or are we all just high on the 30th Anniversary hype?
I'd also add this if you have time to read it, compare this to what we see in the hobby. https://www.harryrinker.com/col-1.html