tldr: experienced developers can be boosted by AI, what happens when those developers are gone and its just noobs with AI
At the moment, the use of AI when paired with an experienced developer can lead to significant producitivty gains. But it is because they already have this wealth of experience and knowledge from coding manually first that they are able to have these gains.
While I'm not convinced entirely of all the "i haven't coded in 5 months posts", I think it is reasonable to assume that coding manually is certainly less common.
What I don't understand is how exactly is it going to work when these senior developers move on, retire, or the technologies/frameworks change to the point that their past knowledge isn't helpful anymore?
Won't we just be left with effectively a bunch of people who don't really know how to code hoping that AI can solve all their problems?