u/Longjumping_Kale3013

Q2 guesstimate so far going by semrush numbers: 18.8% yoy growth

I have semrush unique visitors and total visits going back to february of last year. I wanted to make a comparison of the semrush estimates vs the reddit actuals. The Normalize here is just average the growth semrush shows for unique visitors and total visits.

It is hard to tell if it is just noise from semrush or if there is much signal. But maybe others here would be interested in seeing the results. Reddit has been stepping up efforts to remove bots and scraping by AI companies, which likely adds to the noise. As Semrush may count bots, but reddit may not, and reddit may remove scraping which Smerush sees as a drop. So it is hard to separate. Towards the end of the quarter, I will see if there is a better way to parse the numbers

As we do not fully have q2, I have added both to the table: Comparing April against full q2 average and comparing April to last years April

Quarter Semrush Normalized QoQ Reddit Actual QoQ Semrush Normalized YoY Reddit Actual YoY
Q1 2025
Q2 2025 -2.3% +2.1%
Q3 2025 +7.3% +5.1%
Q4 2025 +7.5% +4.7%
Q1 2026 -0.8% +4.4% +11.5% +17.3%
Q2 2026 (Apr against quarter) +4.0% Pending +18.8% Pending
Q2 2026 (Apr against Apr) +4.0% Pending +26.7% Pending
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▲ 376 r/NBIS_Stock+1 crossposts

Am I missing something, or is nebius free money right now

It seems like at this price, you can’t lose money. Their quarterly revenue a year from now will likely be above corweaves current quarterly revenue. But with less debt and better margins. Coreweave is currently valued at 60 billion, roughly 3x nebius.

I think it’s even possible that nebius q3 revenue next year is 50% higher than coreweaves last quarter revenue.

And the wild thing is that many feel that coreweave is currently undervalued right now.

To me it seems like there is very low risk thanks to the Microsoft contract, and very high reward. If buying calls, potentially a 15x on your money if they hit 60 billion market cap 1 year from now.

Or am I missing something? Does someone have a deeper analysis to tell me why I’m crazy? Because I feel like I am right now.

They just 5x their yearly revenue, but the stock is only up 40% on the announcement

Edit: just to add: I think people are underestimating the experience at nebius. Nebius comes out of yandex, which was the Google of Eastern Europe. Know for being a great company to work for who looked after their employees, the ceo was very against the Ukraine invasion, fled, took the top talent with him, and know you are look at a 20b market cap company that has people with experience of scaling world leading tech, and who are looking to make a stand

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u/Longjumping_Kale3013 — 18 hours ago