Last Week in Collapse: May 3-9, 2026
A hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship, more extreme heat warnings and records broken, AI’s dangers to the financial system, several unreliable ceasefires, and the ongoing demoralization of society.
Last Week in Collapse: May 3-9, 2026
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 228th weekly newsletter. The April 26-May 2, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.
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Celebrating his 100th birthday on Friday, the eminent advocate for environmental conservation, Sir David Attenborough warned that irreversible and devastating runaway consequences of climate change will begin to manifest themselves in the 2030s, and never-ending in the history of humankind. “In the 2030s, The Amazon Rainforest, cut down until it can no longer produce enough moisture, degrades into a dry savannah, bringing catastrophic species loss... and altering the global water cycle….At the same time, the Arctic becomes ice-free in the summer….And the speed of global warming increases….Throughout the north, frozen soils thaw, releasing methane, a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide, accelerating the rate of climate change dramatically….As the ocean continues to heat and becomes more acidic, coral reefs around the world die. Fish populations crash….Global food production enters a crisis as soils become exhausted by overuse. Pollinating insects disappear….A sixth mass extinction event... is well under way."
U.S. regulations prohibiting hunting & trapping on a range of wildlife refuges, federal lands, and coastal zones were lifted on Monday. Meanwhile, a Nature Sustainability study is urging the immediate relocation of New Orleans, since 3-7 meters of sea level rise is projected to swallow 99% of the city before the end of the century. The coastal defense system is expected to fail, and “the current warming is on track for 2.6°C by 2100.” Despite consistent warnings about sea level rise, Florida’s coastline has swelled with millions of new residents over the past 25 years. “As with all climate-driven migration, out-migration in coastal Louisiana is multi-causal, and climate drivers intensify pre-existing drivers such as poverty, suburbanization and economic development.”
Ecofeminists say climate change and its associated repercussions will affect women more negatively than men, and argue for a more holistic appreciation of the links between feminism and liberal environmentalism. Other writers are blaming “elite white eurowestern men” for high-extraction activities, automobile use, high irrigation practices, and more, according to the study references. The researchers write that “industrial modern fossil fuelled societies are founded on and structured by a worldview in which men have considered themselves to stand above nature and women with a boundless right to dominate, control and exploit.”
A fjord-based tsunami in Alaska last year (the second-tallest tsunami on record, at 481 meters) was triggered by a massive landslide induced by climate change. Permafrost melt and glacier retreat is expected to worsen over the coming decades, and these kinds of tsunamis generally produce waves that are taller than earthquake-caused tsunamis, say scientists.
A volcano erupted in Indonesia, killing at least three. Daily sea surface temperatures hit another daily high on Wednesday. And NOAA confirmed record CO2 ppm for the month of April, at 431 ppm. A 20-year retrospective on Al Gore’s 2006 documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, concludes that Gore’s projections for CO2 ppm are right on track to hit the expected 500ppm around 2056. A few other predictions, like the forthcoming disappearance of Glacier National Park’s glaciers, have not materialized on the short timescale he estimated. Many of the other dangers—breakdown of the AMOC, sea level rise, bleaching of coral reefs, etc—are in not-so-slow motion.
As the sea level rises, Mexico City sinks, at about 2 cm per month. The city (metro pop: 23M; elevation: 2,240 meters, or 7,350 feet) is witnessing its infrastructure buckle in real-time—roads slanting, cracking, sinking. Buildings slumping irregularly, pipes snapping underground, soil and water shifting far underneath the ground in the ancient aquifers, existing but on borrowed time. And yet still the metro area is growing by about 250,000 each year, with no real effort made to stymie the subsidence.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index, which measures the severity of droughts of course, determined that April was the worst monthly Drought for the Lower 48 U.S. states on record. As the earth gets even hotter, the Hajj pilgrimage is becoming increasingly hazardous.
The Alps are facing an unseasonably dry period, following a dry winter. Part of Ghana saw its highest minimum temperature for May, at 27.2 °C (81 °F). South Africa and Madagascar both saw record May heats in some locations. So did Iran and Saudi Arabia. And water shortages in India’s large Maharashtra state (pop: 130M) are resulting from lots of things, but among them the voracious water appetite from sugar cane plantations. Coastal Queensland saw its warmest May night and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay saw record May temps, too.
El Niño continues building in the background. Sea surface temperatures are near record highs. Advanced climate models are still struggling to predict megastorms with the accuracy and urgency to meet the moment—and no predictive model can protect a coastal city from billions of dollars of damage.
Malaysia has reportedly begun cloud-seeding in an attempt to generate precipitation for its Drought-afflicted rice crops. A study on Antarctic ice says that basal melting (melting from the bottom) is probably going to accelerate faster than expected due to warmer circumpolar deep water intruding on the underside of the ice shelves. Another study on a related topic found that “persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.” A study from the other half of the world, the Arctic Circle, found that long-frozen microbes do not all reawaken at similar speeds and strengths—indeed, about half of them still lie dormant after their long thaw. And so their decomposition and carbon releases are not very predictable either.
A fresh study on deforestation in the Amazon says that the threshold for large-scale forest loss in the Amazon gets nearer and nearer depending on the precipitation received. Under higher emissions scenarios, the threshold for deforestation and savannahfication are more likely. The authors write, “under future climate conditions, rainfall reductions occur at progressively lower levels of deforestation, indicating that climate change amplifies the sensitivity of rainfall to forest loss…these findings highlight the southern Amazon is increasingly vulnerable to erratic rainfall from land-use changes, with its land-atmosphere system losing resilience.”
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A doomy study on the future of the nickel industry says that “half of mined nickel threatens the top 10% of global land areas most critical for conserving biodiversity and storing carbon, but avoiding mining in these areas increases the risk of supply shortfalls. In addition, 53 to 60% of future supply comes from coastal mines {mostly in Indonesia}, which threaten the top 10% of global priority areas for conserving marine biodiversity.” Will we spare these fragile ecosystems and accept a long-term nickel shortage, or maximize extraction at the expense of biodiversity and our treasured coastlines? On second thought, don’t answer that.
Hantavirus hantavirus hantavirus. You’ve probably heard about hantavirus, a rodent-carried virus that can be transmitted through contact with rodents or their waste. Its CFR (death rate) among humans ranges between 15-50%. There is no cure, and no vaccine—but researchers are working on developing a vaccine for humans. The vast majority of hantavirus cases are found in Eurasia, where the CFR is lower than the Americas. The MV Hondius, a cruise ship usually servicing clients visiting the poles, departed from southern Argentina, headed for Cape Verde with 149 total people onboard—and one deadly plague. The Ship of Death saw three fatalities so far, and it scheduled to land in Cape Verde today. Quarantines are in place, and the panic is largely overblown; all but one variant of hantavirus are not transmissible between humans. This website tracker was developed to visualize the outbreak and possible contacts.
Although another study from The Lancet unsurprisingly confirms that reinfection raises the risk of Long COVID, the national rates of developing Long COVID (at least in the U.S.) have flatlined, and seem to be holding constant. Of course many sufferers of brain fog, joint paints, insomnia, and/or chronic fatigue are still not being counted in the reports, or are not recognized as having Long COVID as opposed to another condition like depression.
There are microplastics, and there are colored microplastics. A [paywalled study in Nature Climate Change says the latter are more dangerous, since they are darker and therefore absorb more sunlight. Airborne microplastics are said to already trap about 16% as much heat as black carbon… But one good consequence of the Hormuz crisis is that plastics are becoming more expensive to produce in Asia.
President Trump is again threatening tariffs against the EU, if his new trade demands are not met by July 4th. A self-post from r/Afghanistan sounds the alarm on the mass forced exit of some 25,000 professional women working as teachers & health workers, to be replaced by…nobody. And negotiations by the EU to increase food imports from South America are imperiling Europe’s homegrown agriculture industry, still somewhat reliant on family farms. Romania’s currency hit all-time lows when compared to the Euro.
Regulators are again warning about the potential for advanced AI models like Anthropic’s Claude Mythos to breach the cyber defenses of lending giants and trigger a banking crisis, either locally or globally. Anthropic warned that “The fallout — for economies, public safety and national security — could be severe.” But still they move full steam ahead. Private lenders are increasingly heavily invested in AI and data centers, which could leave them potentially exposed to massive losses if the long-promised profits from AI fail to materialize, and more accurate revaluations of massive tech companies comes home to roost. And the power grid may not be able to handle the coming boom.
>“AI models have become increasingly effective at reading and reasoning about code—in particular, they show a striking ability to spot vulnerabilities and work out ways to exploit them. Claude Mythos Preview demonstrates a leap in these cyber skills—the vulnerabilities it has spotted have in some cases survived decades of human review and millions of automated security tests, and the exploits it develops are increasingly sophisticated…..On the global stage, state-sponsored attacks from actors like China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia have threatened to compromise the infrastructure that underpins both civilian life and military readiness. Even smaller-scale attacks, such as those where individual hospitals or schools are targeted, can still inflict substantial economic damage, expose sensitive data, and even put lives at risk. The current global financial costs of cybercrime are challenging to estimate, but might be around $500B every year…” -from Anthropic’s statement on Friday
The Iran War is in its third month, but some experts are already calling it the “worst energy crisis that anybody alive has ever seen.” Aggravating an already energy-strained global economy, fires at oil refineries are becoming more common—some caused by War, others by accident or negligence. The drone-ification of War has also increased vulnerabilities for oil facilities, which can be set alight with a $500 explosive drone.
Oil reserves worldwide are at 8-year lows, and shrinking still. Malawi is the hardest hit country in Africa by the fuel crisis, they say. Since 20% of the world’s oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, the cumulative oil shortage sits at over one billion barrels, a number to which another ~20M barrels is added every day.
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A fragile ceasefire in Iran is being continuously tested by both sides: U.S. vessels reportedly engaged Iranian vessels, and Iran claims to have hit U.S. ships as well. Is a truce forthcoming? Maybe, maybe not; negotiations seem to flip all the time. The War has also depleted stocks of weapons for the Americans—costing some $25B of munitions so far. Many of their fearful allies (Poland, Japan, etc) are going to see their orders of U.S. weaponry deprioritized to meet escalating demand from the U.S. military, which is still waiting for congressional approval of higher defense spending before they increase their production capacity. The War Machine is hungry.
Speaking of broken ceasefires, Israel killed the son of the top Hamas negotiator, which didn’t help talks progress over the not-quite-low-intensity conflict. Instead, Israel’s impatience with Hamas’ ongoing refusal to disarm is pushing the IDF back into larger scale warfare, even as the Israeli public grows more weary of war. Both sides accuse each other of violations to the ceasefire. Israeli operations continue against Lebanon, but everyone is too numb from everything else to pay attention.
A 3-day ceasefire was declared from 9-11 May in the Ukraine War, along with a prisoner exchange. The BBC estimates some 2,300 North Koreans have died fighting for Russia in/around the Ukrainian frontlines, out of 11,000+ total fighters sent to the battlefront. North Korea also reportedly sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to help their War effort. A growing number of voices, including Putin himself, believe the Ukraine War is actually nearing its “end” in the next few weeks, after both slides combined have lost 500,000+ soldiers, 352,000+ from Russia and around 150,000 Ukrainians. Many more wounded and displaced. Or will the grinding War keep going for a few more years?
A fire at a fairground in Mexico left five dead. Nine died in an explosion at a coal mine in Colombia, and eight miners are trapped following a coal mine collapse in Russia. Thailand is dissolving a diplomatic agreement with Cambodia concerning overlapping maritime claims. Balochi separatist attacks in Pakistan appear increasingly coordinated to disrupt American efforts to open large mining concessions in the region, and to scare off other potential extractors.
Analysts say that China and Japan are each entering a spiral of distrust over the other. Japan’s recent military posturing over the past few months has stirred up fears in Beijing, triggering a series of mutual & somewhat symbolic gestures that both cultures, used to face-saving maneuvers, are unaccustomed to de-escalating. The mutual suspicion over the other’s intentions may bring both countries into a more adversarial position—and drag in other players.
New U.S. strategy is identifying migration and left-wing causes in Europe and beyond as precursors to terrorism. Local elections across the UK saw colossal victories for the right-wing Reform party, and a strong showing for the UK Greens, with the traditional Labour and Conservative parties hemorrhaging large vote shares. Experts say the U.S. is probably going to pull out many more soldiers from Europe than the 5,000 announced to be leaving Germany soon; Poland’s PM is warning about the future disintegration of NATO as transatlantic political tensions deepen. Another American strike on a Caribbean vessel killed three.
Fighting continues in Mali, following a failed coup two weeks ago. Jihadists killed 30+ people across a couple village raids in the country’s central region on Wednesday. Tuareg separatists reportedly captured several dozen Malian soldiers, and Boko Haram reportedly killed 23 soldiers in Chad.
In Sudan, one week after Khartoum’s airport reopened for flights bringing Sudanese refugees back, rebel drones struck the airport. Sudan’s central government claims they were launched from Ethiopia, but the fog of war is thick. Observers fear that Ethiopia will be dragged into the War soon, since Sudan’s government is allied with Eritrea, one of Ethiopia’s current rivals (despite siding with Ethiopia in the recent Tigray War). Both sides in the Sudan War believe the War could continue until at least 2033. The country representatives self-appointed to end the War (UAE, Saudi Arabia, U.S., and Egypt) are not making much progress in de-escalating. And meanwhile Ethiopia’s Tigray region selected a rival President for the region as part of the establishment of a parallel political structure that might push the wartorn region back into violent separatism.
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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-This year’s El Nino is going to push us over the tipping points, if this post and its linked article + comments are to be believed. 2027 could be, by some predictions, 1.7 °C warmer than the baseline, and trigger cascading climatic crises. Other predictions say the temperature anomaly could be 1.9 °C warmer in the most extreme and unlikely circumstances.
-There is a rich selection of Collapse-related books to flip through, if you are looking for some light summer reading. This thread has compiled several dozen books, old and new, to help expand your Collapse consciousness.
-Apparently the average monthly car payment in the United States is $680/month, if this post and its linked Forbes article are to be believed. No wonder affording life in America is so tough these days. Total annual automobile debt at the end of 2025 was $1.68T nationwide.
-“No one believes in anything anymore,” writes u/BlackMassSmoker in a thread about demoralization, desperation, and the corrupt rot in the hearts of mankind. The social contract is dead. Long live get rich quick schemes!
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