u/Large-Bell8769

Pozdrav,

već skoro 2 godine ulažem u ETF-ove na Trading 212 aplikaciji. Znam za 2 godine pravilo i planirao sam to sve držati još puno dulje, ali sam nedavno promijenio pitu i stisnuo da auto rebalansira, čime je naravno prodao dio ETF-ova u profitu. Trebao sam samo ciljati buduće inflow-e u novu pitu, ali zajebao sam.

Profit je ~3000 eura, znaci malo vise od 300 eura trebam platiti. Koje su objektivne šanse da me ganjaju ako samo ignoriram? Neću vući ništa na račun, ali znam da navodno sad i Trading 212 reportira stanje svake godine poreznoj.

Hello,

I've been hanging around here a while and have this portfolio that I like and am considering to start using. Currently own a basic 80/20 VOO/VXUS portfolio and I slowly want to switch to this one over time.

I've done some thinking and I'm pretty set on this, both from a backtesting perspective (which I know isn't reliable and I've tried to limit overfitting) and a theoretical perspective about uncorrelated asset classes.

40% NTSG / 30% AVWS / 10% QQQ3 (TQQQ) / 10% GLD / 10% DBMFE

So this is the one I'm leaning to. In essence it's:

• 96% equity - global stocks included, barbell idea with a hefty small cap value allocation (30% AVWS) counterweighted by a large cap growth allocation (30% effective QQQ3) around the MSCI World core (36% from NTSG). The small cap value is a great counterbalance which tends to perform when large cap growth struggles (the 2000s for example).
• 24% mixed global bonds from NTSG. NTSG takes care of rebalancing this itself when allocations drift internally or quarterly. These aren't super long duration bonds though, but I'm fine with that since I'm quite reserved equity wise with this portfolio (96%) and who knows how long duration treasuries will do in the future.
• 10% gold - simple inflation protection, not much to say.
• 10% DBMFE - managed futures trend, inflation, general crisis protection, hopefully uncorrelated.

1.4X total leverage. Majority of equities in this portfolio (36% from NTSG and 30% from AVWS) are NOT leveraged, so I keep the volatile "dangerous" part of the portfolio to the 10% QQQ3 part. Less blowup risk of whole portfolio. Rebalancing strategy is the following - rebalance only when an asset drifts 10% or more from it's absolute allocation, which will almost always be the 10% leveraged part going to 20% or to 0%, so a volatility harvester.

What are your opinions on this?