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u/Kugrim

▲ 146 r/Marathon_Training

all 7 major elevation profiles on the same scale, didn't realize how different they actually are

Chicago is basically a runway, Sydney looks rough in the back half and is Boston basically downhill??

obviously elevation isn't everything (weather, crowd, actually getting a bib all matter more), but cool to see them next to each other.

anyone here run more than one? curious if the chart matches what your legs felt lol

source: marathonballot.com

u/Kugrim — 15 days ago
▲ 7 r/AdvancedRunning

I work with data for a living, I run, and I put together that all-Majors odds breakdown in r/Marathon_Training last week.

Sydney was the one race where the numbers seemed to be moving faster than anyone was talking about, and I applied for 2026 myself, so I went deeper and tried to model 2027.

The two cycles we have:

2025 ballot (Sydney's first cycle as an Abbott World Marathon Major)

  • 79,000 applications for ~35,000 spots.
  • ~44% accepted.
  • International applications were 8x the prior year, from 156 countries.

2026 ballot (drew Oct 29 2025)

  • 123,000+ applications, target field ~40,000.
  • ~33% accepted.
  • +56% year-over-year on applications against roughly 14% growth in spots.

To put +56% in context, here's how the other Majors moved during their recent growth phases:

London: +45% in 2024→2025 (578k → 840k applications)

  • +36% in 2025→2026 (→1.13M).
  • Two consecutive years above 35%.

NYC: +22% in 2025→2026 (~200k → 240k)

  • +20% in 2026→2027 (→240k+).
  • Settled around 20%/yr after the initial post-pandemic surge.

Chicago: +33% in 2024→2025 (120k → 160k+)

  • Single big jump, partly absorbing Boston's tightening qualifier standard.

Sydney's +56% sits above all of those.

That makes sense since it just became a Major, and the first 2-3 cycles after Major status are typically the steepest.

Three scenarios for Sydney 2027 (assuming the field grows modestly to ~42k):

Aggressive

  • sustains 56% YoY: ~192,000 applications.
  • raw odds ~22%.
  • drops Sydney below Chicago, even with Berlin.

Moderate

  • decelerates to London's mid-growth pace (~40%): ~172,000 applications.
  • raw odds ~24%. Roughly
  • chicago territory.

Conservative

  • compresses fast to NYC's settled pace (~22%): ~150,000 applications.
  • raw odds ~28%.
  • still the most forgiving Major ballot, but the gap closes.

My read is the moderate scenario.

Sydney went from 101 to 156 countries represented in one year, so there's still international room to widen.

But raw growth rarely sustains 50%+ for three consecutive cycles.

Plan around ~24-26% raw acceptance for 2027, and even that overstates it.

Some of those 40-42k spots go to priority entries, the High Performance Program, charity bibs, and travel-partner allocations.

Ballot-only acceptance for 2027 likely lands around 18-22%.

Berlin parity in practice.

Three implications for anyone targeting 2027:

  1. The 2027 ballot will likely open late September 2026.
  2. The 2026 ballot ran Sep 24 to Oct 17 2025 and drew Oct 29.
  3. About 5 months out.

Priority and Good-for-Age standards (sub-2:53 men open, sub-3:13 women open)

  • Sit outside the ballot entirely.
  • If you're within 4-5 minutes of those, a fall qualifier becomes the cleanest path.

Charity is the realistic non-qualifier backup.

  • AU$1,500+ floor, partner-dependent and often higher in practice.
  • Roughly USD $1,000 / GBP £780 / EUR €920

Source: marathonballot.com

Anyone here actually get into Sydney 2026? How many times you applied?

reddit.com
u/Kugrim — 16 days ago