Guys, if you are new to the genre: fighting games are not inherently hard. It's just that your shooter or moba skills don't transfer so picking up a fighting game takes a bit longer than picking up a new game of a genre you are experienced in. Just take the L, try to think of one thing you'd improve upon and move on.
Disclaimer: I made several mistakes in this game, I was immediately aware of them during the match and I saw them even clearer watching the replay. Nerves were at it's highest! So please be gentle
Some background and context of today's matches:
PD: in my case, the key for improving is always try to keep a learning mindset and tilt management.
TL;DR Rashid is #1 and the only S tier, while Guile is bottom 1 and the only D tier. Ask me anything and I'll do my best to answer why based on the data I have. Given how different it is to the general consensus and tier lists from pro players, it could be seen as "proof" (note the quotes) that tier lists don't matter for 99.99% of us.
Basically, I took the latest available winrates data for Ultimate Master and created an equation to rate characters. It considers two factors:
Score(c) = AvgWR(c) − λ x AvgBelow50Deficit(c)
In plain english, the winrate is the main factor, but I also penalize characters for their losing matchups. The more losing matchups and the harder they lose, the worse. So the final score is favouring both characters with higher winrates overall, and characters with few losing matchups. The average winrates are weighted based on the pickrates of the same period.
Lambda (λ) is a tuning constant and defined it as 1/N where N is the number of characters. You could say this is arbitrary and you would be right. This is not science, it's just for fun.
Some highlights:
Here is the final list (ordered):
| Character | Tier |
|---|---|
| RASHID | S |
| MAI | A |
| DHALSIM | A |
| C. VIPER | A |
| ELENA | A |
| E. HONDA | B |
| CAMMY | B |
| DEE JAY | B |
| ED | B |
| BLANKA | B |
| ZANGIEF | B |
| M. BISON | B |
| SAGAT | B |
| JP | B |
| CHUN-LI | B |
| KEN | B |
| TERRY | B |
| JURI | B |
| KIMBERLY | B |
| LUKE | B |
| AKUMA | B |
| LILY | C |
| MANON | C |
| MARISA | C |
| RYU | C |
| A.K.I. | C |
| JAMIE | C |
| GUILE | D |
Still, lost the set 6-10.
In case anyone asks for it: cr.MK is 1f more plus on hit and f.MP got 1f faster startup. On either DR or PC, cr.MK links into either b.HP or f.MP (range dependant). This means you can link cr.MK into her f.MP>HP TC which gives auto-timed oki into DR > charged b.HP. Also, as seen in the vid, after her command grab she has oki with DR > cr.MK. This is not new afaik, but before the patch she would literally get nothing out of it since st.MP is out of range.