Been matching sold prices back to their original asking prices for properties in my dataset. Sharing the latest cut because the headline national figure is misleading in an interesting way.
Sample
- 19,764 sold properties, Feb-Apr 2026, where I had both the sold price and the original asking price
- Outliers more than 50% from asking excluded (these are almost always data errors, not real outcomes)
- Sample is VIC-heavy — Victoria is 12,926 of the 19,764 (65%). This matters and I'll come back to it.
The headline number is misleading
National average: +0.57% above asking. Median: -0.41%.
That sounds neutral. It isn't. Victoria is two-thirds of the data and is the softest state in the country. Pulling VIC out:
| State | Sample | Avg vs Asking | Median | % above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | 603 | +6.48% | +6.00% | 87% |
| TAS | 465 | +4.89% | +4.03% | 82% |
| SA | 492 | +3.59% | +2.35% | 67% |
| QLD | 1,778 | +2.44% | +1.88% | 68% |
| NSW | 3,176 | +1.67% | 0.00% | 43% |
| ACT | 227 | +1.60% | +1.25% | 59% |
| NT | 97 | +1.70% | +0.58% | 56% |
| VIC | 12,926 | -0.52% | -1.49% | 35% |
Ex-VIC average: +2.65%. So the national +0.57% is mostly Victoria dragging the rest down.
WA, TAS, SA samples are smaller (sub-1,000), so treat the exact premiums as directional. ACT and NT are too small (227 and 97) to take precisely; I'd be uncomfortable quoting the NT number to anyone making a real decision.
Sale method
| Method | Sample | Avg | Median | % above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auction | 3,636 | +3.84% | +3.06% | 65% |
| Private Sale | 12,508 | -0.70% | -1.41% | 36% |
| EOI | 70 | -1.94% | -1.57% | 36% |
VIC private sales specifically (6,954 matches): median -2.7%, only 20% sell above asking. If you're buying in VIC private-sale and offering at asking, you're well above the typical clearing price.
One thing worth knowing about days on market
Properties that sold above asking: median 19 days on market. The rest: 26 days. Once a listing sits past three weeks without a serious offer, the seller's leverage erodes fast.
Limits I want to flag
- This is contract-unconditional date, not settlement date
- Sample is what I capture; coverage skews to metropolitan postcodes
- "Asking price" is the most recent listed asking before sale, not the original list price (so price reductions aren't visible)
- Auction "guides" are deliberately conservative, so the +3.84% auction premium is partly genuine bidding uplift and partly underquoting effect — probably +2-3% real
Disclosure — data comes from my own site (PropRadar). Full state, property-type and suburb-level breakdowns including the top suburbs by % above asking are at https://propradar.com.au/blog/do-properties-sell-above-asking-in-australia-19764-sales-analysed.
Happy to answer questions about how the matching works or share specific suburb/postcode cuts if anyone wants them.