Advice requested: is 3:30 realistic after today’s 15 miles? More info inside
Hi there, looking for advice - I am chasing 3:30 at Edinburgh marathon in 2 weeks.
Runna predicts me somewhere between 3:20 and 3:28, Strava 3:40, Garmin 3:22.
The last 4 weeks I have flunked my long runs. Some info:
- I am 32M
- 25 miles per week between August ‘25 and Jan ‘26, with training plan beginning February with weekly mileage comfortably at 40-45 miles per week for the last 6 weeks
- My best long run was March 27th, 19 miles at 8:36 pace, 144 average heart date. It’s felt downhill since
- I have ran multiple 20 mile runs and one 22 mile run last week. The last 3 long runs I hit the wall each time at mile 16 - I simply ran out of steam, I pushed through last week to 22 miles stopping every one mile for a 2 min break
- I am tapering since last week and this 15 miler felt like a good litmus test for me - I couldn’t have gone any further today, I was fried
In terms of nutrition:
- cadence gels every 25 min, easy on my IBS gut
- salt stick tablets every 20-30 min as I sweat so heavily, clothes are white after running
- big gulps of water with every gels
- plenty of carbs and protein daily
My hypotheses:
- although I’ve ran for 6 years, I’ve never trained in temperatures beyond 10 degrees. Since April the temperature and humidity in London has rose sharply each day and I hit the wall around 2 hours in as I’ve sweat so much
- started the training too early / I have stage 1 overtraining syndrome
- I live in south east London which is hilly and every run ends in an incline - today the last 5 miles were incline and it broke me
I don’t really know what to do at this point. I feel very fit - I have strong VO2, but my heart rate spikes so sharply these days as soon as I start a run.
I have no option but to start my runs at the sort of pace I started at today - any slower and I wouldn’t make 3:30. In doing that, my heart rate is elevated right from the start, even during decline.
My LHR is 172 and I was there from mile 10 today whilst at race pace - there is no way in hell I could have gone on for another 11 miles. An average heart rate of 167 for 2 hours just feels totally unsustainable for me.
Is the heat and humidity really that impactful? I feel like I’ve gone backwards since the end of March when I ran 19 miles with a HR of 144.
I’m asking myself stupid questions like “am I wearing my watch too tight?” as I got a new strap and it either feels a bit too tight or a bit too loose, but I know that’s silly as I could feel how exhausted I was today.
Looking for guidance on whether 3:30 is impossible at this point and I should just aim to finish, or even some guidance on why I seem to be flunking training despite being relatively fit.
Thank you!